Dow index no longer over 9000;GM shares at 58-year low;WSJ:recession's here

[Aiemond]

bigjon said:

Lingyis said:

bigjon said:
I would say if GM is healthy 6 months from now... INVEST in them. They seem to get it. The Volt will be huge, I like the direction they are heading. I do not see a depression coming. I see a major inflationary period ahead, tight credit, and higher job loss. No Depression the fundementals of the US economy are too strong, even Obama becoming president would not lead us to a depression.

I having been analyizing the economic leaders, and they seem good. Most of the doom in gloom you see politicalization of the crisis for gain. Yes, it is bad, but the politicians are making it seem worse than it is.

 

wow, how much faster can one lose his credibility!

of course, you did say "if" GM is healthy 6 months from now. well, i can also say that if the economy is fine 6 months from now, you can pretty much invest in anything and make money.

you think politicians are making it seem worse? i actually think they're underestimated how bad it is. especially two weeks ago when they couldn't even pass that stupid bill.

 

When I said "healthy" I meant, not bankrupt. There stock should still fall from here, and like I said there future looks bright... They just need to survive this crisis. Yea losing my cred.... right. And what do you know about Economics and Finance to say that? (you might be Bernake, so i am just checking) Akuma studies law and is very intelligent, I think Fishyjoes is in Finance (Am I wrong?) Again by healthy I did not mean that they are turning exxon like profits... I just meant that there heads are above water and are continueing to show signs of improving.

The Volt? I thought I read 2010 for that? Maybe a wide release is 3 years away. And it is not just the Volt. They are showing signs that they just "get" it.

Shit, economic leaders. Well, one for example is I heard today that IBM is going to meet their earnings targets. Many retailers are doing fine. This could change as many of the businesses I mentioned will not be hit by the tight credit right away, and as hard.

Remember, Many companies do use a line of credit to pay salaries and such, but many use cash assets. Nintendo is a good example. What do they have a 8 billion dollar chest of money now? They had like 6 billion during the dark years of the GC.

 

Well, it is good news for IBM. But, retail? Retail spending is going down, especially in large retailers like department stores. Listen to this radio report: http://odeo.com/episodes/23465558-Retail-Spending-Down

So, retail IS going down and it IS an important leader. Now, lets look at what exactly is going on:

1) Dow tanking cause everyone is scared. You know, people were scared in 1929, that is why there was a sell off. When the marfket looks bad, fear s the number one sell off. Just because it is fear and panic that is driving this does not change the fact it is happeneing.

2) Credit crunch. Do you have any data showing most companies have large cash reserves? I remember people being suprised about how nintendo does because it is not normal in the industry. Most companies put money in investment and operations. Most DO NOT have large reserves. As they run out of cash they will have to close down. Why do you think GM is going to have to close some of its plants soon, even with good news from the volt? This will accelerte if nothing happenes to alleviate the credit cunch. Again, this is fear, which is the number 1 cause for market meltdown.

So how is this good news and how is this the same as 1987? Every economist I have heard says this is significantly worse than 1987. Are you disagreeing with them? I agree that investing now is a good idea in 401k, it is always good when employers match. But, the question is: how does this get fixed.