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Forums - General Discussion - Dow index no longer over 9000;GM shares at 58-year low;WSJ:recession's here

megaman79 said:
Warren Buffet just bought stock in GS and GE. It hasn't worked

 

 

You know, guys like Buffet think about the big picture... He saw value and picked it up. It may be years before the stocks can really preform. Then again the guy is really old... he might never see the massive returns he will recieve...

The people I feel for are the people who are retiring in the next 4-5 years. If they were dumb and had a good portion of their 401k in Equity they are soooooo screwed. They will be working until they are 80 if they sold they stock at the paltry prices they are now at.... Other wise they would have to keep working until the markets fully recover (3-5 years).

I doupt there are too many people that are looking to retire in the next 5 years here... but just a word of advice for future reference. Do not put much of your retirement into equity within 5 years of retirement. Equity is great, has the best returns, but is the most risky, and see more highs and lows. Move into debt instuments (treasury notes, bonds,etc) , commities, and such during those times.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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Screw American car companies. Their terrible choices have earned them the right to fail.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

The falling Dow is the least of our problems. Right now, the entire interbank lending system has frozen. No bank trusts any other bank anymore; even the biggest banks have massive exposure to bad debts. It's the economic equivalent of a heart attack - your body might be healthy, but if the heart goes, you're dead. We've got to treat the heart attack, which means nationalizing big chunks of the banking system. We've got to do this fast, or all hell will break loose in the real economy.

Then we've got to bail out Main Street instead of Wall Street - boost wages, spend on infrastructure, invest in renewable energy, etc. That's right, Big Government is the only solution. Why? Because markets aren't perfect, and sometimes fail. And if you leave things up to the market, this economy will fall off a cliff.

Check out Dr. Nouriel Roubini's blog for the best info on how we got into this mess, and how to fix it:
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

(Roubini is not some fringe wacko. He's an utterly pragmatic, centrist, and highly respected economist, but unlike Wall Street's hucksters, he understands the difference between unreal, bubble capital and real investment).



bigjon said:
akuma587 said:
bigjon said:
I would say if GM is healthy 6 months from now... INVEST in them. They seem to get it. The Volt will be huge, I like the direction they are heading. I do not see a depression coming. I see a major inflationary period ahead, tight credit, and higher job loss. No Depression the fundementals of the US economy are too strong, even Obama becoming president would not lead us to a depression.

I having been analyizing the economic leaders, and they seem good. Most of the doom in gloom you see politicalization of the crisis for gain. Yes, it is bad, but the politicians are making it seem worse than it is.

Seriously bigjon, wake up.  The economy is way beyond people "politicizing" it to be a crisis for gain.  And it looks like you copy and pasted some of what you said straight out of things McCain has said before (bolded parts).  Are we all just "a bunch of whiners" too?  In a "mental recession"?

Here is the YTD chart of the DOW.  You see that part at the end there?  That is the last month.  There is about a 3000 point drop in 1 MONTH.  You can't really spin that to be something minor.

 

I said people are FREAKED! The Markets are driven by 2 emotions, fear and greed. Right now fear is thriving. Buck up, it is not the end of the world, there will be no great depression 2. It might be a really bad recession, but there is a difference. Recessions are part of the Business cycle, Depressions are not. Right now the dow if free falling because people are selling stock just to get rid of it... these are the same dumasses who will hide it in their matresses. Like I said I am only worried about inflation. If you are worried about inflation diversify. Get some commodies to even out your portfolio. So if it is dooms day you will still have something.

Let me remind you, that the selloff we have seen the last 7 days or so (combined) is less than the 1 day selloff in 1987 (that was like 24%). The bleeding will stop, there as just ass loads of undervalued stock waiting to be swooped. I named GM as one of them, Bank of America is a steal right now, they purchased a crap load of bad debt from Merril (which someday they will actually profit off of) and they obviously are in trouble if they can go out and spend billions to buy Merril. they are getting dragged down with the entire finance industry, and they appear to be OK, same with CITIGroup.

This is being politicized, no one wants to come out and say that things aren't as bad as people are fearing... Obama knows it will help him, and McCain knows people are freaking out, and people will think he is a retarded old goon if he tries to act like it is not as bad as people have already percieved. Bush is just listening to his advisors, I think he is kinda lost right now.

 

I am not saying this is not a mess, I am saying that things will be OK. Just diversify, some companies will go under and you don't want all your eggs in 1 basket. We will get throw this, and the people who decided to put their money in the market when it bottoms out (could be another 25% down or so) are going to get flithy rich. And it won't be average joe investor... it will be the Warren Buffets who always seem to being far ahead of the curve.

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122359593027021243.html

Stocks fell for the seventh straight trading day on Thursday, continuing what amounts to a slow-motion crash that has pulled the market down more than 20% over that brief period.

On its way down, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through another milestone, closing below 9000 for the first time since 2003, wiping out the bulk of the gains from the last bull market. The decline leaves America in one of its worst bear markets in decades, a slump that is triggering comparisons to long-running declines of the 1930s and 1970s.

Thursday's decline -- the 11th largest in percentage terms in the Dow's history -- put the stock market either in, or nearly in, a crash. A common definition of a crash is a 20% decline in a single day or several days. The Dow's crash in 1987 was 22.6% in one day. The 1929 crash was back-to-back declines of 12.8% and 11.7%.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

don't worry guys. There's nothing to fear. This is simple Keynesian economics. During the good times, the government uses taxes and reduced spending to build up surplus money that can then be used to inject in to the economy when things are rough.

And that's why the U.S. government has spent the last 8 years saving up money for just such an occasion... oh crap we're fucked.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

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It's a good thing my retirement fund is fine... I don't retire for another 50 years.



well with gas prices going down, there will be less incentive for people to spend an extra $5k to buy a hybrid.

whups.

We're screwed either way. It IS really scary out there right now.



bigjon said:

This is being politicized, no one wants to come out and say that things aren't as bad as people are fearing... Obama knows it will help him, and McCain knows people are freaking out, and people will think he is a retarded old goon if he tries to act like it is not as bad as people have already percieved.

There's that double standard we all know and love.



HappySqurriel said:

I understand that this makes me a selfish dick, but (about) 30 months ago I started to see several fundimental flaws in the ecconomy and I moved my entire portfolio into the safest investments I could find and as a result I am amazingly pleased that the market fell this far.

One thing I have noticed over that timeframe is financial and real estate analysts are just like videogame analysts in that they seem to be the last people aware that the market has changed.

I guess its not bad for me either.  I dont have any money to invest, so a 15000 Dow and a 5000 Dow dont affect me directly, as long as I can get student loans and inflation isn't too bad for the next years.  I dont truly have to be afraid for about two years when I graduate, and hopefully there will be jobs to be had at that time.  If there are and the market is still down, investors stand to make a lot of money.



I am wondering how low it can go. already its on a 6 day losing streak

luckily oil is down and US average for unleaded is $3.40 but by Houston it can go as low as $3



                       

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