http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=26751
"2 – 3 million 60GB PS3s produced and not yet sold" thats a hell of alot of stock.
He also predicted another thing between the lines:
"We believe that there are presently 2 – 3 million 60GB PS3's produced and not yet sold, and expect the entire supply to be diverted to the US to honour the new lower price point.
"We expect the USD 499 price cut to be maintained until early next year, when the 80GB model will likely be cut again to USD 399," he said.
Those two things together mean he's expecting the PS3 to have sold definitely more than 3.6 million units in USA by the end of the year (total cumulative sales). And that's ignoring the 80 GB sales, and the sales after the first price cut. I know it's Pachter, but what do you guys think about that number?
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
It very likely could be higher if all the 60GB models sell out and 80Gb is dropped to 499 by Nov/Dec.
| twingo said: It very likely could be higher if all the 60GB models sell out and 80Gb is dropped to 499 by Nov/Dec. |
That's a tautology. Your premise is the same as your conclusion.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
Don't you ever believe analysts. They're just like phychics... Far from true and expensive.
My themeforest portfolio:
| libellule said: I hope Sony expect to do something in europe ... |
This thread is clearly about USA.
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957
| libellule said: I hope Sony expect to do something in europe ... |
My themeforest portfolio:
| NJ5 said: He also predicted another thing between the lines: "We believe that there are presently 2 – 3 million 60GB PS3's produced and not yet sold, and expect the entire supply to be diverted to the US to honour the new lower price point. "We expect the USD 499 price cut to be maintained until early next year, when the 80GB model will likely be cut again to USD 399," he said. Those two things together mean he's expecting the PS3 to have sold definitely more than 3.6 million units in USA by the end of the year (total cumulative sales). And that's ignoring the 80 GB sales, and the sales after the first price cut. I know it's Pachter, but what do you guys think about that number? |
Since we don't know the effects of the current price drop, i'll assume 40K a week average for the new price level from now till Christmas time, which is roughly 22 weeks. So total sales would be 880K units. We would also have to include the holiday sales, which i'll give the 60GB 1m units, for a total of 1.88M 60GB units sold by the end of the year. Obviously this does not include 80GB sales, so no, i don't think there will be at least 2M 60GB units sold by the end of the year.
I do however think it is possible for the PS3 to sell over 3.6M of both the 60GB and 80GB by the end of the year. For this to happen the PS3 would need to sell 2.02M units in ~22 weeks. From my previous guess the 80 GB would only need to sell 140K units, which will probably be hit within the first 2 months of the 80GB launch.
Analysts predict a lot of stuff and rarely do any of their predictions become true ...
Sony sells around 250,000 PS3 systems worldwide in a given month which means that they have already built up a couple of years worth of inventory. If the price cut does not eat through a large portion of the built up surplus Sony could be in a rough position having a months/years worth of inventory that was manufactured at a high price.
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