There are some out there, this is from the NPD thread on Beyond3D:

Based on the numbers I see, and the easy explanations I can make for the success of the Wii, I see both the 360 and the PS3 selling more units than the Wii by the time all of these consoles have been terminated.

It's about value, it's about product, it's about life span of the individual consoles. I have no doubt that the PS3 is going to sell more consoles than the Wii when everything is over and the final numbers are reported. I have a little doubt about the 360, but that's only because MS has a shorter history and you do have to factor in their early abandonment of the Xbox, even though they had reasons to do so that don't currently exist.

I think some people are going to be shocked this holiday season when the 360 outsells the Wii, and I also think that those same people would be more shocked to know that if Sony were able to muster any sort of legitimate price drop this holiday, it'd outsell the Wii as well. Even without a price drop from the PS3, I expect the combination of the 360 and the PS3 to outsell the Wii by 3-1.

I am utterly not convinced that this 'new demographic' that is attributed to the Wii's success exists at all. If it does exist, I think it's so minute it's insignificant in explaining the sales.

@rubido who said, "FAIL!!"

Prove it.

I think my explanations are better than Beyond3D's.

Paul_Warren said: I think my explanations are better than Beyond3D's.

It was just a forum post by a user.

But I think you both will be very, very wrong.

 

Paul_Warren said: @rubido who said, "FAIL!!" Prove it.

 

First look at my games collection. Then add the games that are already out and I still want to play:

Metroid Prime 3

Super Paper Mario

Battalion Wars 2

Fire Emblem

Wario Land

de Blob

Okami

Bully

Trauma Center

Blast Works

Excluding Wii Play, that's 25 games for you. Just because you dislike the wii and try not to look at it doesn't mean it has a bad game library.

F

i wish i can go 10 years into the future.

rubido said: Paul_Warren said: @rubido who said, "FAIL!!" Prove it.   First look at my games collection. Then add the games that are already out and I still want to play: Metroid Prime 3 Super Paper Mario Battalion Wars 2 Fire Emblem Wario Land de Blob Okami Bully Trauma Center Blast Works Excluding Wii Play, that's 25 games for you. Just because you dislike the wii and try not to look at it doesn't mean it has a bad game library. F

the wii does have good games. the best games on wii are zelda and resident evil 4.

 

No sorry. I'm being realistic. PS3 will not come first, and I'm ever increasing doubtful it will come second. M$ seem to be making incredible inroads in Sony's own backyard. That for sure Sony did not expect.

coolestguyever said: oh i forgot to mention one thing, wii has no more good games coming except mario/zelda sequels.

Quoted for the giggles.

 

Why the hell are you reading NPD stuff on Beyond3D. Techheads talking about sales? Does not compute! Stay here or head to GAF :)

Anyway, people talking about a pricecut bring momentum for the ps3 are wrong. First off all, look at Wii. It clearly does not need a pricecut, therefore nintendo doesn't cut the price until they are ready to do so. They are in control. Sony/MS are not. A popular console will sell at a slightly premium price. We all know Wii is overpriced, and nintendo is happily walking to the bank! Looking at the Wii current sales, that pricecut might be a long way off.
Also, people seem to forget that if the PS3 hits 300$ the 360 will be 100$ cheaper as well. Most games can be played on PS3 and 360, so the price-difference between the two is more important. It matters most to people who are only willing to pay a set amount of money for a console that plays their (multiplatform) game. Add in the 360 Arcade and sony is screwed. That's why MS made the right decision to release a SKU with no HDD as even the lowest capacity HDD will ALWAYS add a lot to the overall price (40-60$). Meaning there will never be a PS3 as cheap as the PS2, yet 360 can match that price. The price advantage will always be in microsoft/nintendo's court

People saying PS3 sales will pickup when bluray hits the sweetspot? I don't think so. Why? PS3 is not the cheapest bluray player anymore. Right now I can buy a bluray BURNER/dvd-cd-bluray player for PC for 170euro. A standalone bluray player? 170euro.. Why would i buy a PS3 if i want to watch flicks ? Sure there will always be people who will buy PS3 because it features bluray, but there are also people who want a standalone player (+360). People buying a PS3 soley for bluray? not anymore.

People also expected Bluray to skyrocket as soon as the whole Bluray<>HDDVD war was over.. Well, it's not happening. Recent reports say very otherwise.. DVD is killing Bluray. Forecasts for Bluray are way down compared to Sony's forecast.

Sony is promising a 10year plan? nice for them, but they do NOT decide how long a console stays on the market! As soon as retail decide to dump the console/games it's over. If developers stop making games, people stop buying games then retailers will dump anything that doesn't justify their floor space. No retailer is going to support PS3 just because Sony promised a 10year plan.
Sony might WANT to keep PS3 around for 10years, but it's not up to them to decide what consumers want.

Home will outdo Live? What? No, just NO. You will understand when you can get your hands on it. Home will be a flop, it's just a hollow shell to functionality much better integrated into something like Live/PSN. The one thing truly interesting is the party system and the new 360 dash has got that covered. If you are interested in the rest of Home, you are better of in something like the SimsOnline, Wow, SecondLife, MSN, or whatever floats your boat. If PS3 sales skyrocket because people love Home, i'll be very surprised to say the least!

IMO, what PS3 needs to do to get past 360 worldwide :
- a steady stream of exclusive AAA games
- get their current PS2 fanbase on PS3 instead of loosing it to wii/360. Get BC working, get game prices down as PS2 players are used to paying 20$/20e for a game. Wii/360 have lots of cheap games, PS3 not so much.
- keep pricing fairly close to 360 Pro/Elite. It's fine to have a slightly higher price as it does include bluray, wifi and larger HDD
- a few NEW games that will define the console, not sequals like ratchet/gow/wipeout/gt etc. but more resistance/motorstorm/uncharted/lbp
- buy exclusives, like ms does.. JRPGs hello? How is it possible that 360 has more jrpgs?
- hope MS fails at their current casual approach (avatars/casual games/etc) as they now do have the pricepoint that CAN interest casuals. PS3 cannot compete at current pricepoint
- keep PSN free and keep doing dedicated server games (>64 players), that's what PSN has over Live.
- focus on japan and more importantly america!

Additional minor points:
- include a headset + HD cables if you want to push PSN/HD
- lower price point for 1st party games. This is ripping people off
- Promote (psn) games in the XMB. We might not like it, but in the end it does generate more sales.

What PS3 needs to counter Wii :
- become the cool kid again, this is their main problem.
- get people to see the value in HD
- some kind of easier control method for the casual people so they can have FUN (waggle? improved eyetoy like thingy? anything similar to wii motion+)
- get japan back into the game, meaning a PS3 Slim. Sales are pathethic in japan for a sony device. Even the PSP kills it, wtf! seriously
- actually start outselling the Wii on monthly basis just to gain marketshare as currently they are moving in the wrong direction!

What 360 needs to keep PS3 out of the game?
- use those billions to buyout EA
- focus on europe/japan
- make 360 100% RROD free, keep that extended garanty going.
- improve namebrand
- use 360 arcade to focus on the casual people buying PS2/Wii right now. Do a commercial focused on the arcade. show that it can play GTA, Halo, Gears, etc without the HDD.
- less shooters/racers more casual friendly games. Why 3-4 new halo's? they will not bring more people in to buy xbox. Let 3rd party handle the (hard)core. Just do the main franchises like halo, gears, forza
- increase 1st/2nd party output. Less closing of studios, more opening studios!
- 360 slim.
- keep reducing price when needed, keep the $$$ presure on

everything is IMO, but things might get ugly come christmas if sony is still holding on to that 400 dollar/euro pricepoint. Wii has the casual market covered very well, and sony is in no position to compete at the current pricepoint. Thus only the (hard)core gamers remain, which they are fighting microsoft over. And how big is that group of consumers really? I think that out of those 120mil PS2 consumers around 30-40mil are core-gamers. Normally sony would then target the casual market, but many have already purchased Wii (and partly 360). Sony needs to get the price down and turn the tide.

I'd say it will be 1: Wii, 2: 360, 3: PS3. But PS3/360 could definitly switch places. Still Sony will be the biggest looser this generation. Nintendo went from 3rd place to nr 1, microsoft will most likely double their xbox1 sales (already outdone xbox1 in japan and on par in europe), but Sony will have to perform miracles to match PS2 sales.