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Forums - Sony - Why the 10-year plan is feasible...

HappySqurriel on 16 September 2008
Squilliam said:
In 2011 at 32nm process node a console manufacturer will be able to release a console which is at least 4x more powerful than the current generation of consoles on half as much silicon. Progress is always going to happen and people won't understand why such power is needed until it actually starts being used.

 

It is possible that by the end of 2011 (and certainly by the end of 2012) we could be working with a 22nm process which would mean that you could produce something 4 times as powerful as the PS3/XBox 360 at the cost to manufacture the Wii.



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Dianko on 16 September 2008

Sony doesn't determine how long the PS3 lasts, the market does. If the PS3 continues to sell, Sony will sell it as long as it can. If, however, the new Nintendo and/or MS console renders the system obsolete and demand crashes, it won't. No amount of desire Sony has for a 10 year plan will change that.



Squilliam on 16 September 2008
HappySqurriel said:
Squilliam said:
In 2011 at 32nm process node a console manufacturer will be able to release a console which is at least 4x more powerful than the current generation of consoles on half as much silicon. Progress is always going to happen and people won't understand why such power is needed until it actually starts being used.

 

It is possible that by the end of 2011 (and certainly by the end of 2012) we could be working with a 22nm process which would mean that you could produce something 4 times as powerful as the PS3/XBox 360 at the cost to manufacture the Wii.

Consoles are usually produced on mature process nodes. Even Intels Tick/Tock cycle would put them as just implementing the 22nm process node at the end of 2012 and the other silicon manufacturers are behind Intel in this regard and the gap is more likely to increase rather than decrease as the shrinks become harder to implement.

The only console released in 2012 which would be likely incorperating chips produced at 22nm would be one which incorperates an Intel processor of some kind.

OT: Its funny, these pictures don't look any better than tech demos released by Nvidia or ATI as far back as 2005 and they were rendered in real time as well.

 



Tease.

FilaBrasileiro on 16 September 2008
HappySqurriel said:
Squilliam said:
In 2011 at 32nm process node a console manufacturer will be able to release a console which is at least 4x more powerful than the current generation of consoles on half as much silicon. Progress is always going to happen and people won't understand why such power is needed until it actually starts being used.

 

It is possible that by the end of 2011 (and certainly by the end of 2012) we could be working with a 22nm process which would mean that you could produce something 4 times as powerful as the PS3/XBox 360 at the cost to manufacture the Wii.

If the PS4 launches on 2011-2014 then it'll be in line with the 10 year plan for the PS3 a Sony always supports their consoles after launching a new one.

 

 



TWRoO on 16 September 2008
FilaBrasileiro said:
The PS3 is self sustainable though therefore it is not losing money. Can you please post a link to the gametrailers video you talked about on #4?

Erm, no it isn't... not yet.

And even when it gets there it won't recoup what it has lost.

 



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HappySqurriel on 16 September 2008
FilaBrasileiro said:
HappySqurriel said:
Squilliam said:
In 2011 at 32nm process node a console manufacturer will be able to release a console which is at least 4x more powerful than the current generation of consoles on half as much silicon. Progress is always going to happen and people won't understand why such power is needed until it actually starts being used.

 

It is possible that by the end of 2011 (and certainly by the end of 2012) we could be working with a 22nm process which would mean that you could produce something 4 times as powerful as the PS3/XBox 360 at the cost to manufacture the Wii.

If the PS4 launches on 2011-2014 then it'll be in line with the 10 year plan for the PS3 a Sony always supports their consoles after launching a new one.

 

 

 

How many games has Sony released for the PS2 in 2008? How many Sony published games are going to be released for the PS2 in 2009?

Sony doesn't support their console much past the release of their next generation system, third party publishers continued to support their consoles because of their massive install base.



HappySqurriel on 16 September 2008
Squilliam said:
HappySqurriel said:
Squilliam said:
In 2011 at 32nm process node a console manufacturer will be able to release a console which is at least 4x more powerful than the current generation of consoles on half as much silicon. Progress is always going to happen and people won't understand why such power is needed until it actually starts being used.

 

It is possible that by the end of 2011 (and certainly by the end of 2012) we could be working with a 22nm process which would mean that you could produce something 4 times as powerful as the PS3/XBox 360 at the cost to manufacture the Wii.

Consoles are usually produced on mature process nodes. Even Intels Tick/Tock cycle would put them as just implementing the 22nm process node at the end of 2012 and the other silicon manufacturers are behind Intel in this regard and the gap is more likely to increase rather than decrease as the shrinks become harder to implement.

The only console released in 2012 which would be likely incorperating chips produced at 22nm would be one which incorperates an Intel processor of some kind.

OT: Its funny, these pictures don't look any better than tech demos released by Nvidia or ATI as far back as 2005 and they were rendered in real time as well.

 

I'm just looking at it based on the 18 month cycle for manufacturing processes ...

IBM had the 90nm process for the XBox 360 at the end of 2005, which translates to a 65nm process in the middle of 2007, a 45nm process at the end of 2008, a 32nm process in the middle of 2010, and a 22nm process at the end of 2011. If a console is released at the end of 2011 and beyond it will (certainly) be using a 32nm process, but it is possible they may have a 22nm process; and even if they don't have the 22nm process it will (most likely) be possible within 12 months of releasing the system so they could assume they would get the cost savings from the process soon after they released the console.

 



FilaBrasileiro on 16 September 2008
TWRoO said:
FilaBrasileiro said:
The PS3 is self sustainable though therefore it is not losing money. Can you please post a link to the gametrailers video you talked about on #4?

Erm, no it isn't... not yet.

And even when it gets there it won't recoup what it has lost.

 

 

They still lose money on the PS3 HW but are making money on the PS3 overall (because of games, PSN and acessories), Yoshida said so.

 

HappySqurriel said:
FilaBrasileiro said:
HappySqurriel said:
Squilliam said:
In 2011 at 32nm process node a console manufacturer will be able to release a console which is at least 4x more powerful than the current generation of consoles on half as much silicon. Progress is always going to happen and people won't understand why such power is needed until it actually starts being used.

 

It is possible that by the end of 2011 (and certainly by the end of 2012) we could be working with a 22nm process which would mean that you could produce something 4 times as powerful as the PS3/XBox 360 at the cost to manufacture the Wii.

If the PS4 launches on 2011-2014 then it'll be in line with the 10 year plan for the PS3 a Sony always supports their consoles after launching a new one.

 

 

 

How many games has Sony released for the PS2 in 2008? How many Sony published games are going to be released for the PS2 in 2009?

Sony doesn't support their console much past the release of their next generation system, third party publishers continued to support their consoles because of their massive install base.

 

Off the top of my head:

2008

4 Singstar games or so

Buzz

MLB 08 The Show

NBA 09 The Inside

Ratchet

 

 

I haven't really looked at the PS2 schedule so I don't know what they have for 2009

Bottom line is the PS2 is still heavily supported by 1st and 3rd party SW. that's undeniable and the PS2 is in its 9th year



peachbuggy on 16 September 2008

@ OP:- You stated in point 2 that "powerful hardware had gone out of style." Therfore that would be a reason for Sony to give up on that format rather than persevere with it don't you think? So that would be a reason NOT to have a ten year plan wouldn't it? Unless you think Sony are going to wait until they "come back into style?" You said yourself that motion control as in Wii is "in style" at the moment. So maybe Nintendo should have a ten year plan?



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Mendicate Bias on 16 September 2008
obieslut said:
i agree, the ps3 is the most future proof machine out of anything that has come out this gen.

the ps3 will have the longest life span out of any console ever made.

 

Your 17?

OK I'm not sure if your parents have told you this yet but inanimate objects are incapable of expressing affection or any other emotions so no matter how much you keep humping your PS3, its never going to say I love you back.



                                           

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