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Forums - General - PoliCHARTZ - Thread of U.S. Politics & the Presidential Election

I don't think there is really any chance we will see what happened with Bush in 2000, a split of the popular and electoral vote. The map just isn't playing out that way this year.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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akuma587 said:
I don't think there is really any chance we will see what happened with Bush in 2000, a split of the popular and electoral vote. The map just isn't playing out that way this year.

This is the widest spread in popular vote between liberal and conservative since Reagen, if you consider Perot a conservative vote.  I do.

 

RCP -

No toss ups Obama/Biden 301    McCain/Palin 237   

2004  Bush/Cheney 286    Kerry/Edwards 252 (The polls were identical)

2000 Bush/Cheney 271    Gore/Lieberman 267 

1996 Clinton/Gore 379    Dole/Kemp 159  (Remember Perot was still pretty big in 1996, and took a lot of votes from Dole.)

William Jefferson Clinton Democratic(a) 47,402,357 49.2% Albert Arnold Gore, Jr. Tennessee 379
Robert Joseph Dole Republican(b) 39,198,755 40.7% Jack French Kemp New York 159
Henry Ross Perot Reform 8,085,402 8.4%


I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

Wow, North Carolina just went blue on realclearpolitics. The margin is pretty slim, but notable nonetheless.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html

North Carolina:

RCP Average 09/13 - 09/23 -- 46.5 46.8 Obama +0.3
Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/23 500 LV 47 49 Obama +2
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 09/17 - 09/20 600 LV 45 45 Tie
PPP (D) 09/17 - 09/19 1060 LV 46 46 Tie
CNN/Time 09/13 - 09/14 910 RV 48 47 McCain +1



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

He won the last poll by 2 in NC; Obama hasn't won a single poll there before. It is like McCain winning a poll in California.



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

steven787 said:
He won the last poll by 2 in NC; Obama hasn't won a single poll there before. It is like McCain winning a poll in California.

 

Nice. If this keeps up then this is extremely good news for obama. I can't wait to see the new polls for VA, Obama just had an excellent rally there. I really am hoping VA gets moved into the leans obama catagory on real clear politics. ;)



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If the DOW keeps falling and banks keep failing it's going to help Obama win. The failure of Bush to get his party to back the bail-out bill may have ensured that an Obama victory is almost inevitable.

On a side note, it's looking more and more like Bush is going to beat out Hoover as the worst President of the Unites States ever.


As of September 30th, 2008.

Obama: 286

McCain: 225 (-27)

Tie:27 (+27)

  • The obvious difference in today's chat is that Florida went from slightly McCain to a statistical tie.


That's an interesting graph. What's the #1 concern of most voters?



I've been calling an Obama landslide for months, but this takes the cake. This landslide is going to be huge.

It's simple history.

Never before has a candidate who picked a v.p. this unqualfiied won.
Never before have we kept with the same party during an unpopular war.
Never before have we kept with the same party when the president was this unpopular.
Never before have we kept the same party while the economy tanked.

Almost all presidential scholars say Obama is going to win.



Obama margin gets slightly larger in NC:

RCP Average 09/13 - 09/28 -- 46.3 47.0 Obama +0.7
PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 1041 LV 45 47 Obama +2
Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/23 500 LV 47 49 Obama +2
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 09/17 - 09/20 600 LV 45 45 Tie
CNN/Time 09/13 - 09/14 910 RV 48 47 McCain +1

Obama and McCain are statistically tied in Florida:

RCP Average 09/21 - 09/28 -- 47.3 47.0 McCain +0.3

PPP (D) 09/27 - 09/28 941 LV 46 49 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 47 Tie
SurveyUSA 09/27 - 09/28 599 LV 48 47 McCain +1
Strategic Vision (R) 09/21 - 09/23 1200 LV 48 45 McCain +3



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson