Its really how it will sell over the course of the next few months.

It has been selling around 17k weekly in NA until the price reduction.  I expect to see a surge in sales to 50,60 or even 70k for this week with it gradually coming down over the next few weeks back to a standard.

If it can maintain a 25-30k in 1 months time, then I'm sure Sony will be happy enough. 

I think it will be higher than most estimates

futureshop.ca sold out again today. 5-6 days after price drop

i say 30k. Ive learned to not get excited when i think PS3 sales will pick up (motorstorm, oblivion, Folksoul, NGS)

Lets see:

No Games Yet
Announcement of 80GB model
Last chance to get EE on PS3
Only $100 price drop
5 free BR movies (Not that great, but free)-(Is this for all PS3 purchases anywhere?)

I will go with....... It will beat the GBA this week.

I'm not terribly good at the numbers thing, but given their price drop, and the widespread anticipation of one by MS, I expect the PS3 to edge out the 360. I'll say 40,000 PS3, 30,000 360.

82k

45k

No way PS3 will pass Wii... Some of you guys are being WAY too optimistic!

1st week after price-cut: ~45k. (around 120% increase)

2nd week: ~38k. 

3nd week: ~34k.

4th week: ~28k...

5th week: ~25k.

The settling around 23k something... A little above what the PS3 'used to' do... 

I think this will be higher than some expect simply because the PS3 is proving to be hardcore-gamer oriented, and with that comes hardcore gamer trends. Instead of a large spike followed by a slow regression, I expect a very large spike folowed by fast regression. We'll see, though.

You seem to ingore future games in those numbers, Lair and Madden both come out in August they should boost sales.