prediction of consoles moved WW in holiday season

for 360/ps3

Thats really hard to predict so i will wait instead.

Honestly, I predict right around even..and here's why.

The 360 just got a nice price cut, and is rumored to get another..huge jump in sales. It also has some pretty high profile exclusives coming out, so that will only help more.

The PS3 seems to have more high profile games coming out than the 360 - just an opinion don't flip out - so I think the PS3 lineup will push sales more than the 360 lineup.

LINEUP people. The price cut on the 360 will more than compensate the lineup difference.

The price cut is the deciding factor. I probably am crazy, but I can't get it out of the back of my mind that there may be a price cut on the horizon for the PS3 this holiday season. Especially if the Wii lowers it's price, which I also expect to happen for the holidays. Very few people think this will happen, but the way I see it is if it doesn't happen, Sony is basically screwed.

Going up against a comparable console, no matter who you are, with that big of a differential in price will kill your product. I really hope and think Sony has something in the plans for this. I just think they're probably a little better at keeping secrets is all.

If there is no PS3 price cut, the 360 will outsell by quite a bit, especially if they drop to $130. All Sony needs to counter this is a $50 price cut, though.  I'm not good at predicting numbers for consoles moved altogether though, sorry.

PS3 Price Cut = Equal Sales
No PS3 Price Cut = 360 Wins

At this point, in all likelyhood, 360 wins.

If the trend from the first 2 quarters (compared to last year) contiunes, it will look like this:

YoY growth for the first 2 quarters:

Wii: 61 % growth

Ps3: 67 % growth (if you take out first 2 months for Others that is, as that makes it fair).

X360: 51 % growth

(Off topic, but holy crap, X360 has increased almost as much as Wii, relatively of course).

This would mean that those 3 months  would be:

Wii: 11.99M

Ps3: 7.07M

X360: 6.31M

Having said that, the last 3 months indicate a 50+ % market share for Wii (currently averaging ~ 55% for last 3 months), and a slightly higher 360 vs Ps3.

Thus, I will say:

Wii: 13.5M - 47.5%

Ps3: 7.5M - 26.3%

X360: 7.25M - 25.4%

The total sales will thus end at around these numbers: 

Wii: 47M

Ps3: 23.5M 

X360:  28M

And the market share would be:

Wii:  47.7% (+0.6%)

Ps3:  23.8% ( + 1.2%)

X360: 28.4% (-1.9%)