I did some quick math, so maybe this is wrong. But with the recent price drop, Microsoft announced that 70% of a consoles sales come once they are at the $199 price point. So, with a 20 million install base, this would mean that the lifetime total sales of the 360 that Microsoft expects is around 65 million consoles?

Do you think this is accurate? It does seem a little high to me. I'm thinking lifetime sales in the 40 million range.

You are probably more accurate.....but then again, I'm not surprised by the large number touted. I am also surprised they didnt say something a bit crazier "We shall sell 100mil console, mwwwhahaha". It seems thats the running theme this gen is.........how far can we shove our foot in our mouths.

I think they could do it--that's about the upper end of my prediction for them. Remember, they're keeping the 360 viable for at least three more years, and they wanted the price to be much lower by this point (RRoD prevented that). I think that the recent price drop and their heavily rumoured 'relaunch' will do wonders for sales (20-25 million in the next 2 years, you heard it here first!), and they are apparently intending to drop it even lower at some point.

So, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility at all.

A simple calculation like that would only work if there is only one version of the console or all versions are at the $199 price point.  Since most people realise the arcade is not good value for money even at $199 (due to all the extras you need to get) I am pretty sure Microsoft does not expect that it will sell that many more consoles simply because the arcade has gotten to $199. 

Well, considering that the arcade apparently makes up 10 to 20% of their sales, you have to take 10 to 20% of their current sales, and triple that number.

That would be the correct number of sales of the 199$ SKU (IF this 75% is sold under 200 dollars-phrase turns out to be true)

I am doubtful it will get so high... if they do it will be at the expense of PS3 sales.

I think 50 million would be a nice target for Microsoft... in that if they try hard they could achieve that figure. Personally I expect it will end between 40 and 45 million.

*Only if the consumer wanted WiFi, Online multiplay, or downloadable content.  Otherwise, said consumer can still play the entire library of games(barring a very select few) for the low, low price of $199.

The thing is, you only get 75% of your sales at that price point if you drop the price at the right time.... if the PS3 doesn't get to that price for another 2 years it won't even have 50% of it's sales under $200.... similarly all Nintendo consoles prior to the Wii have been priced at $199 at launch, which means they get 100% of sales below $200.

It's a BS statistic that Pachter announced.

Very unlikely in my opinion, possible but unlikely. I shall wait until Jan before being definite about that as I'm not sure what the price drop will do in the states but that figure looks like pie in the sky to me.

It's possible.