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Forums - General - Latest Gallup Poll has McCain leading by 10 points

Timmah! on 07 September 2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Look at the first poll listed for Monday, Sept 8.

 

Taken fro USA Today:

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

 

Holy crap! I really wasn't expecting such a big jump.



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super_etecoon on 07 September 2008

Ouch...Palin RNC bump confirmed.

We'll see how this plays out on the way to the debates.

Of course...it is just one poll.



psrock on 07 September 2008

I love polls. The funny thing about them, as a registered voter, i have never gotten a phone call from them. Such a shame.


I guess the election is over, huh.



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
RCTjunkie on 07 September 2008

Flaming in 3... 2... 1...



WHO IS JESUS REALLY?

Timmah! on 07 September 2008

Concidering Gallup had Obama up by 7 just a few days ago, a 17 point swing is pretty huge. I'm actually very surprised it was that big.



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Jackson50 on 07 September 2008

The most interesting point in the poll is that Obama's lead on economic issues has evaporated. There are still the debates left, but if McCain can keep the gap on economic issues small, this could prove to be a deciding factor in certain swing states (Ohio) where the race is already tight and the economy is the #1 issue.



stof on 07 September 2008

In what will be an ongoing series, Stof will be attempting to get the first post on all threads regarding political polls.

These posts will consist of either "fuck polls" or, if complaints are made, "screw polls"

This is a principled stance against the poll, may it rot in hell and stop screwing politics.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

segajon on 07 September 2008

The polls also said it would be Guliani vs. Clinton.



damkira on 07 September 2008

USA Today/Gallup polls have pretty much been skewered toward McCain since Obama won the nomination. The daily Gallup poll has McCain up 3 points and the Rasmussen has a tie. That is pretty much to be expected after the Republican convention. I'm won't be too concerned about it unless the lead holds.



akuma587 on 07 September 2008
damkira said:
USA Today/Gallup polls have pretty much been skewered toward McCain since Obama won the nomination. The daily Gallup poll has McCain up 3 points and the Rasmussen has a tie. That is pretty much to be expected after the Republican convention. I'm won't be too concerned about it unless the lead holds.

 

What he said.  Rasmussen and Gallup are much better indicators.  I watch this stuff everyday, and the most skewed polls so far have been Zogby and the USA Today/Gallup polls.

Hotline/FD (usually skewed towards Obama) is pretty unreliable too.

This is what I mean.  There is about a 10-point difference on average.  That is too much to show that there aren't some serious problems with the polling method.  It isn't within one of those other polls margin of error:

Time 07/31 - 08/04 808 LV 46 41 Obama +5
AP-Ipsos 07/31 - 08/04 833 RV 48 42 Obama +6
CNN 07/27 - 07/29 914 RV 51 44 Obama +7
USA Today/Gallup 07/25 - 07/27 791 LV 45 49 McCain +4
Pew Research 07/23 - 07/27 1241 RV 47 42 Obama +5
Democracy Corps (D) 07/21 - 07/24 1004 LV 50 45 Obama +5


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