Ok, I change my opinion based on sales in the US only - 15m is way too much. Maybe closer to 10m. Also think I have overestimated Madden sales.

I do think Halo3 will do 2m (at least) on launch day. Halo is the most hyped game out there, and I think has a higher % of first day to overall sales than pretty much anything else.

This is IGN - much of what they say (in terms of sales predictions) should be taken with a grain of salt.

well if ioi thinks a GC game will sell well this year it must be so, even if it was a typo now that he sayed it the   people WILL buy subshine

IGN has the same problems as the Famitsu "most wanted" here. These kinds of polls/guestimates become echo chambers for the hard core gamer.

I generally agree with the sentiments here. Madden will only did around 1.5-2 million next gen last Christmas and with around twice as many next gen consoles it could do 3-4 million but not over 5. GTA did break 15 million twice last gen but that was on consoles with a combined install base of 40-50 million and I'm not sure they hit those numbers their first holiday. With only 10-13 million PS360's I would think 2-3 million would be a more reasonable expectation this holiday. Halo 3 is harder to judge. The 360 should have at least 75% of the Xbox's Nov'04 install base this year so Halo 3 should be able to do 4-6 million. If I had to bet on which of the 3 would break 5 million it would be Halo 3.

I'm also not so sure about the "50 million games sold in the 2nd half part" part. I have nothing firm to go on but it seems to me with all the AAA games coming this Christmas video game sales will be higher. So basically I seriously doubt those games will account for 30% of game sales. I think 9-13 million or around 15-22% is more likely. There are simply too many other excellent games coming out and not enough next gen users yet (for each game to hit 5 million total).