Dragon Quest 7 has been the best selling console game in Japan for almost 8 years now - but it is soon to be dethroned.

DQVII sold 4.1M there, almost 300K more than Super Mario Kart, which is second.

Wii Sports is the 7th best selling console game there, at 3.2M, of which 0.7M has come in 2008. If this rate stays, and it has a chrismtas boost, it will surely be nr 1 by the 1st of April, or at least nr 2. 

Or will it? 700K behind Wii Sports, sitting at 2.53M, is Wii Fit - the game that now holds the 2nd best week 20-40 in Japan, for all games - not just console ones. It is second to the best selling game ever there, Pokemon Red, which sold over 10M.

Back to Wii Fit. It is selling 25-30K each week, and is likely to eat in almost 200K sales on Wii sports before the start of the holiday season (mid November).

In this holiday, it could sell close to 500-600K, probably eating up over half the gap to Wii Sports.

In Q1 09, selling 150-200K more than Wii Sports should be no problem for Wii Fit, after all, it has 13 weeks.

Can we then really say that console gaming is slowing down in Japan, when it will only halway into the generation has taken 2 of the top 3 spots (maybe the top 2), and another one in the top 10 (MKWii).

Not only that, but a year further into the future, Wii Play should also come into the top 10.

By the end of the generation, we might very well see the Wii having the top 3 spots, and 4 or more of the top 10, and that's actually a fairly pessimistic look at it.

That is indeed looking fairly pessimistic at it.

Reaching the top 10 is currently 2.8M, but with Hajimente Wii comming up toghether with MKWii, it will be 3.2M.

That is pretty high, but Animal Crossing, Wii Sports Resort and Wii Music should all have a shot at it. Some unnanounced title could also have a shot at it, but I'm not certain what that could be from Nintendo, so that would probably have to be 3rd party.

Let's not forget DQIX, which could sell in the 4-5 million range. I guess it's not a console game, but it will be a huge seller.

I don't think dominating the top selling games is necessarily proof that console gaming isn't slowing. Nintendo, much more so than any other developers, tend to dominate the top selling lists by making huge hits. Since the Wii is the first Nintendo console to take Japan since the SNES, it's only natural it would destroy the previous top selling games.

If you want an example, compare the top selling PSX to games to the N64's. According to VGC, worldwide Nintendo makes it into 4 of the top 10, taking the #1, #3, #6, and #8 spots - and that's with a third of the userbase. If a Nintendo console sold as much (or even slightly less) than the Playstations, you can imagine what that would mean for the top selling games lists.