makingmusic476 said:
It's called Christmas.
I posted this in another thread:
...the ps3 could shave over a million off of the 360's lead this November and December alone, assuming the ps3 maintains a similar lead over the 360 percentage-wise throughout the holiday season. Sales will increase dramatically for both consoles over the holidays, as will the gap between them.
Last year the 360 sold 3.4 million over the holidays (November + December), and this year it's been selling much better on average than it was last year (though I suppose the increase may have started along with the price drop and release of Halo 3 last August/September, thus it will matter little from this point onwards), and the ps3 has been outselling the 360 on average ~34% for most of the year. Assuming the 360 ONLY sells 3.5 million or so between November and December, and assuming the ps3 outsells it by ONLY 25%, the ps3 would catch up to the 360 by 875k units. If the 34% trend holds true (and this and last week implies that the trend is only increasing - for now, at least), then the ps3 could outsell the 360 by 1.20 million. In only two months!
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That's a pretty fair assessment, assuming the playing field remains level.
We'll find out in about a month what sort of impact the upcoming price reductions will have for the 360 through the rest of the year. It may just taper off as was the case with the temporary inventory clearing sale on the 20GB SKU. If anything is to have a more significant effect, it should be the $199 entry price point, well within the reach of anyone remotely interested in the Xbox brand.
This is mass market make or break time for MS. If it doesn't happen this holiday season, the 360 will unlikely ever hit critical mass.
Soft-wise, it seems like a push with Gears 2 and Fable 2 being the biggest potential exclusive movers for the holidays. The only problem is that these are the same franchises that appeal to the current fanbase of the platform. Less alluring for those not familiar with the IPs or just now jumping into the current gen of consoles.
