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Forums - Gaming - DS Games Selling Badly: Or Why Install Base isn't the End All Be All

fkusumot on 30 August 2008
jman8 said:

 My main idea, the point to take home, is that a big install base doesn't necessarily equal large sales. Then I went on and speculated that it might actually be better to release on a lesser selling system like the PSP, Wii, or PS3 (maybe even 360, but that install base may be too small). That second point is hard to prove b/c there's pretty much no way to truly test it out. But it sure does seem that devs are subscribing to the same line of thought that I'm presenting here when you consider that there are games being released for the PSP even though overall software sales are really bad.

Would they have sold better on another system? Like I said, it's impossible to know. But it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Go look at a PSP-only game site like psp.ign.com or something. Check out the games they're talking about on the front page. Not many of them look all that notable. If they were coming out for the DS, the DS sites may not even talk much about those games b/c there's so many other titles that look better that they can talk about. In other words, by virture of being on PSP, a system with few upcoming releases, these barely notable games are getting more coverage than they would on a system like the DS.

Look at the DJ Max article I posted above. That dev is saying the same sort of thing I am. It's been actually getting quite a bit of coverage on the PSP sites, and actually I'm kinda interested in what it is. That's a huge step forward for a game that I and many others would've completely ignored had it come out at the beginning of the year when Wipeout, God of War, Crisis Core, etc came out.

Well you used two examples from one week. You used the number 3rd and 8th best selling games of that week. You used a week that has all the kids in Japan going back to school and that is historically a low sales week. It could just be that those games were sent out to die. It seems like you picked one week and took two random titles to make a case for a point that seems cherry-picked at best and facetious at worst.

And yeah, big install base doesn't necessarily equal large sales. Okami am cry, twice (on the PS2 and the Wii).



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hanafuda on 30 August 2008
Riachu said:
hanafuda said:
Riachu said:
The reason why those games sold poorly was because they weren't marketed very well or weren't hyped very much

I'm getting a bit tired of people who don't know what they are talking about bouncing this type of nonsense around as some kind of legitimate explanation for why (always seems to be Nintendo) stuff doesn't sell well.

Weren't marketed well?

Really?

There was a demo of Inazuma Eleven included as part of the LTD edition of the second Professor Layton game in Japan, and if I'm not mistaken this demo version on DS cart was also GIVEN AWAY FREE at the Tokyo Game Show last year for those prepared to queue for it.

I've also seen ads for the game in Famitsu.

So just what wasn't marketed well then? Please give a detailed answer.

 

 

Inazuma Eleven didn't get that much advertising.  I have seen no TV ads for that game

 

So you haven't seen a TV ad for that game?!! 

Maybe you don't watch kids TV.

http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=xCUyP3ypzSk

 



PSN - hanafuda

jman8 on 30 August 2008
cleveland124 said:
jman8 said:

 My main idea, the point to take home, is that a big install base doesn't necessarily equal large sales. Then I went on and speculated that it might actually be better to release on a lesser selling system like the PSP, Wii, or PS3 (maybe even 360, but that install base may be too small). That second point is hard to prove b/c there's pretty much no way to truly test it out. But it sure does seem that devs are subscribing to the same line of thought that I'm presenting here when you consider that there are games being released for the PSP even though overall software sales are really bad.

This is definately true.  Nothing sales in a vaccuum.  There is no if I just support x system, and make lots of money.  There is competition, their are the effects of the economy, there is how well you market. 

Their are two schools of thought on the different systems.  You have competition and complementary games.  You could say an RPG could sell well on the DS because Square Enix has performed well on the DS and the DS is now the lead platform when you think of RPGs.  Or you could think that the DS is oversaturated with RPGs and people will just buy the Square Enix RPGs.  Then you might look to a console like the Wii which has a high userbase and yet nothing substantial in the RPG market.  Every game is different and its hard to know what exactly is going to sell.  If it wasn't we wouldn't have businesses go out of business. 

 

Agreed. It seems a bit like your second school of thought may be becoming the reality. I pointed out 2 RPGs from well known much loved developers and both seem to have done a pretty disappointing job selling software on a system that has a ton of RPGs.

@TWRoO: Yeah that's what I'm getting at. I'm not saying it's a guarantee the games would've sold better on another system, but I think there's a decent chance. Like Cleveland said, there's not many RPGs on the Wii. There's a good chance there's a lot of Wii owners starving for an RPG. Same goes for PSP or PS3. The game sites that cover those systems would probably also give more coverage (which equals PR) to those games had they been on another system b/c of the rarity of RPGs for those users.

 



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

c0rd on 30 August 2008
jman8 said:

My main idea, the point to take home, is that a big install base doesn't necessarily equal large sales. Then I went on and speculated that it might actually be better to release on a lesser selling system like the PSP, Wii, or PS3 (maybe even 360, but that install base may be too small). That second point is hard to prove b/c there's pretty much no way to truly test it out. But it sure does seem that devs are subscribing to the same line of thought that I'm presenting here when you consider that there are games being released for the PSP even though overall software sales are really bad.

Would they have sold better on another system? Like I said, it's impossible to know. But it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Go look at a PSP-only game site like psp.ign.com or something. Check out the games they're talking about on the front page. Not many of them look all that notable. If they were coming out for the DS, the DS sites may not even talk much about those games b/c there's so many other titles that look better that they can talk about. In other words, by virture of being on PSP, a system with few upcoming releases, these barely notable games are getting more coverage than they would on a system like the DS.

Look at the DJ Max article I posted above. That dev is saying the same sort of thing I am. It's been actually getting quite a bit of coverage on the PSP sites, and actually I'm kinda interested in what it is. That's a huge step forward for a game that I and many others would've completely ignored had it come out at the beginning of the year when Wipeout, God of War, Crisis Core, etc came out.

I can understand where your argument is coming from, and it does make sense.  I believe Soul Calibur II sold best on the GC, and Tales of Symphonia did great as well (possibly due to the lack of GC RPG's).

However - we can apply this to the Wii.  Not only is its install base quickly outpacing the HD consoles, but like the PSP, it also is lacking games (many genres not covered).  One of the most hyped games is The Conduit, a game from no-name developers!  That's pretty telling right there - and to think, this is on the best selling console!  So I don't think it's unreasonable people are upset, and think more effort should be shifted onto the Wii.

Now, as for people who think HD console support should die off completely and all should migrate to the Wii?  I doubt many people outside of fanboys believe such a thing - even the Gamecube and Xbox had their uses for third parties.  Still, I do believe Wii support should definitely be better than it is now, and for more reasons than just its install base.



Riachu on 30 August 2008
hanafuda said:
Riachu said:
hanafuda said:
Riachu said:
The reason why those games sold poorly was because they weren't marketed very well or weren't hyped very much

I'm getting a bit tired of people who don't know what they are talking about bouncing this type of nonsense around as some kind of legitimate explanation for why (always seems to be Nintendo) stuff doesn't sell well.

Weren't marketed well?

Really?

There was a demo of Inazuma Eleven included as part of the LTD edition of the second Professor Layton game in Japan, and if I'm not mistaken this demo version on DS cart was also GIVEN AWAY FREE at the Tokyo Game Show last year for those prepared to queue for it.

I've also seen ads for the game in Famitsu.

So just what wasn't marketed well then? Please give a detailed answer.

 

 

Inazuma Eleven didn't get that much advertising. I have seen no TV ads for that game

 

So you haven't seen a TV ad for that game?!!

Maybe you don't watch kids TV.

http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=xCUyP3ypzSk

 

I don't even live in Japan, I live in the States.  When I meant I haven't seen the commercial, I meant I haven't seen it on the internet

 



 

http://www.youtube.com/user/InvaderZimGuy1?feature=mhum

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mike_intellivision on 30 August 2008

Jman

You may have a point ... but your evidence does not back up your hypothesis.

The DS had six of the top 10 selling software titles last week, including three new IPs that made the top 10. The titles you mentioned were third and eighth respectively. Only a PS2 J-League soccer release prevented the DS from topping the charts again.

Interestingly, the rest of the top 10 was Wii (2) and Sony (PS2 and PSP). The Xbox 360 and PS3 did not have a title in the top 20.

The whole market in Japan is in flux and is down. And one week does not a trend make, especially where Nintendo software is concerned because titles seem to sell forever.

Mike from Morgantown

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV
jman8 on 30 August 2008
fkusumot said:
jman8 said:
 

 My main idea, the point to take home, is that a big install base doesn't necessarily equal large sales. Then I went on and speculated that it might actually be better to release on a lesser selling system like the PSP, Wii, or PS3 (maybe even 360, but that install base may be too small). That second point is hard to prove b/c there's pretty much no way to truly test it out. But it sure does seem that devs are subscribing to the same line of thought that I'm presenting here when you consider that there are games being released for the PSP even though overall software sales are really bad.

Would they have sold better on another system? Like I said, it's impossible to know. But it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Go look at a PSP-only game site like psp.ign.com or something. Check out the games they're talking about on the front page. Not many of them look all that notable. If they were coming out for the DS, the DS sites may not even talk much about those games b/c there's so many other titles that look better that they can talk about. In other words, by virture of being on PSP, a system with few upcoming releases, these barely notable games are getting more coverage than they would on a system like the DS.

Look at the DJ Max article I posted above. That dev is saying the same sort of thing I am. It's been actually getting quite a bit of coverage on the PSP sites, and actually I'm kinda interested in what it is. That's a huge step forward for a game that I and many others would've completely ignored had it come out at the beginning of the year when Wipeout, God of War, Crisis Core, etc came out.

Well you used two examples from one week. You used the number 3rd and 8th best selling games of that week. You used a week that has all the kids in Japan going back to school and that is historically a low sales week. It could just be that those games were sent out to die. It seems like you picked one week and took two random titles to make a case for a point that seems cherry-picked at best and facetious at worst.

And yeah, big install base doesn't necessarily equal large sales. Okami am cry, twice (on the PS2 and the Wii).

 

 Those are all possibilities. But how much data do I need before it's not "cherry-picking." I'm not about to write a thesis on this for you. "Cherry picking" or not, data is data. Sure it's not enough to prove my point unequivocally, but does that mean you should dismiss the premise completely? Does that mean I'm wrong? All I'm really trying to do is get people to re-think and reconsider some of the assumptions they've been making. I supported my points with two sales examples and an interview w/ a dev commenting on this issue. Want more meat? How about the fact that Tales of Vesperia sold 100,000 units in a week on a system that has an install base that's only 2.5% of the DS's.



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

jman8 on 30 August 2008
mike_intellivision said:
Jman

You may have a point ... but your evidence does not back up your hypothesis.

The DS had six of the top 10 selling software titles last week, including three new IPs that made the top 10. The titles you mentioned were third and eighth respectively. Only a PS2 J-League soccer release prevented the DS from topping the charts again.

Interestingly, the rest of the top 10 was Wii (2) and Sony (PS2 and PSP). The Xbox 360 and PS3 did not have a title in the top 20.

The whole market in Japan is in flux and is down. And one week does not a trend make, especially where Nintendo software is concerned because titles seem to sell forever.

Mike from Morgantown

Mike from Morgantown

Again, I'm not saying the DS is having trouble selling software. I'm saying the DS's success doesn't necessarily lead to the success of every good game. And some games may be better of on other hardware. Last time I checked, just a couple of weeks ago Tales of Vesperia sold way more software than the two titles I mentioned on an install base that's 30 times smaller than the DS.

 



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

mike_intellivision on 30 August 2008

Jman

The lone developer quote that I can find you posted has to do with the PSP, which is generally thought to underperform (and now underproduce) on the software side.

Meanwhile, in the article in the OP, it is Kotaku speculation, ot actual S-E statements.

Plus, your premise is basically the same they had - which ignores generally low sales overall for all software in Japan. If you are third and are disappointed with your sales, then there is general market problem as much as anything.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV
fkusumot on 30 August 2008
jman8 said:

Look at the DJ Max article I posted above. That dev is saying the same sort of thing I am. It's been actually getting quite a bit of coverage on the PSP sites, and actually I'm kinda interested in what it is. That's a huge step forward for a game that I and many others would've completely ignored had it come out at the beginning of the year when Wipeout, God of War, Crisis Core, etc came out.

DJ Max isn't the best example. It's already a proven IP (it got a sequel!). Regardless of the new features they are adding to the game it can't be that hard to recode it in ENGLISH because the entire game is already in ENGLISH. So a company is bringing over a music/rhythm game after the success of Rockband and GH, and now especially right after the success of GH:OT on the DS. EBA did okay and will probably get a sequel. Tengoku, Daigasso and Taiko are doing great in Japan and Tengoku is already planned for release in NA (and Daigasso is rumored as well).

The real question would be if DJ Max would do better on the PSP or on the DS. It's really a moot point. The development costs for mashing up the first two DJ Max games into one is probably very low as opposed to having to recode the entire game for the DS. DJ Max for NA is a very low risk project trying to cash in on the rhythm game craze. I'm glad that the game they're using for the "cash in" is actually a very good game. Kinda makes you wonder why such a great game wasn't already localized years ago. Hrm.



I Blame Wii Fit!