By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - DS Games Selling Badly: Or Why Install Base isn't the End All Be All

jman8 said:

I don't know how many times on this site I've seen people state that the larger the install base leads to the largest profit. I've also seen the argument, "such and such million selling PS2 game sold poorly considering the 120 million install base." Well here's some data from the latest Japanese sales charts that show install base isn't everything.

http://kotaku.com/5043640/japanese-gamers-love-soccer-hate-new-square-enix-ip

2 new releases from highly reputable companies that are well loved in Japan sold quite poorly.

Inazuma Eleven (DS) - 41,000 / NEW by Level 5

Sigma Harmonics (DS) - 23,000 / NEW by Square Enix (Yohinori Kitase is involved in this game too which brings a lot of credibility to title.)

So everyone who thinks the Wii is automatically going to get a ton of games b/c of it's huge numbers or anybody who thinks games are going to start drying up on other lesser selling systems, think again. Install base isn't everything.

Games fail on any system all the time, what are you talking about?  Are you saying those games would have been successful on another system?  Are you saying that there is no reason these games should fail?  All good games have to be a success right? 

 

Using Square Enix as an example is a very bad idea.  They make a living off of the DS, and considering the low costs of making a DS game this isn't going to affect them much at all.

 



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

Around the Network
jman8 said:
I've just heard a lot of folks wonder aloud things like "Why is Square Enix supporting the PSP so much when they could make these games on DS," or "why are developers ignoring the Wii; there's so many systems out there."

My original post is in response to these questions along with the arguments I mentioned in the first paragraph. IMO, devs are seeing what I'm seeing, which is that a large install base doesn't necessarily mean the dev is going to generate big time sales and profit by releasing their game on this popular system. They might actually be better off releasing their game another system where they don't have to compete with many other games.

- Do you think those games would have sold better and made more $$$'s if they were developed and released on another system, all other things being equal (i.e., marketing, new IP, etc.)?

- Are you just comparing the DS vs. PSP market or were you being subtle and trying to infer that these titles would have done better in Japan on a system where there is relatively little competition (e.g., the 360)?

- Just saying "They might" isn't really saying much at all. Ya know.



Here's an article that illustrates a point that goes hand in hand with my original thesis that a large install base with a ton of software isn't always a positive in every way for a dev.

http://www.pspfanboy.com/2008/08/26/pm-studios-psp-drought-will-help-dj-max/

Basically, this dev is saying that their game is going to benefit from releasing on a system that doesn't have much software that's going to compete with their own game.



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

Quality on a larger install base should normally equals profit. A huge crowd competing for a piece of a huge pie is better than a small crowd of huge guys competing for a piece of a small pie.

If the installed base is 50. As a software maker, at best 50 is all I can sell. Less, if competition is hefty.

If the installed base is 100, I can potentially sell 100. Simple.



fkusumot said:
jman8 said:
I've just heard a lot of folks wonder aloud things like "Why is Square Enix supporting the PSP so much when they could make these games on DS," or "why are developers ignoring the Wii; there's so many systems out there."

My original post is in response to these questions along with the arguments I mentioned in the first paragraph. IMO, devs are seeing what I'm seeing, which is that a large install base doesn't necessarily mean the dev is going to generate big time sales and profit by releasing their game on this popular system. They might actually be better off releasing their game another system where they don't have to compete with many other games.

- Do you think those games would have sold better and made more $$$'s if they were developed and released on another system, all other things being equal (i.e., marketing, new IP, etc.)?

- Are you just comparing the DS vs. PSP market or were you being subtle and trying to infer that these titles would have done better in Japan on a system where there is relatively little competition (e.g., the 360)?

- Just saying "They might" isn't really saying much at all. Ya know.

 

 My main idea, the point to take home, is that a big install base doesn't necessarily equal large sales. Then I went on and speculated that it might actually be better to release on a lesser selling system like the PSP, Wii, or PS3 (maybe even 360, but that install base may be too small). That second point is hard to prove b/c there's pretty much no way to truly test it out. But it sure does seem that devs are subscribing to the same line of thought that I'm presenting here when you consider that there are games being released for the PSP even though overall software sales are really bad.

Would they have sold better on another system? Like I said, it's impossible to know. But it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Go look at a PSP-only game site like psp.ign.com or something. Check out the games they're talking about on the front page. Not many of them look all that notable. If they were coming out for the DS, the DS sites may not even talk much about those games b/c there's so many other titles that look better that they can talk about. In other words, by virture of being on PSP, a system with few upcoming releases, these barely notable games are getting more coverage than they would on a system like the DS.

Look at the DJ Max article I posted above. That dev is saying the same sort of thing I am. It's been actually getting quite a bit of coverage on the PSP sites, and actually I'm kinda interested in what it is. That's a huge step forward for a game that I and many others would've completely ignored had it come out at the beginning of the year when Wipeout, God of War, Crisis Core, etc came out.



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

Around the Network

Is it possible that you expect too much from these games? Both are new franchises. And if you extrapolate their lifetime sales, I would say both would end up between 100,000 and 300,000 in just Japan. That would put these games as either the 18th best selling game in Japan this year, or as poorly as the 87th selling game in Japan this year. With all the hits that have been coming out for the Wii, PS3, PSP, DS, and even the 360 I don't think those numbers are too bad.



Riachu said:
The reason why those games sold poorly was because they weren't marketed very well or weren't hyped very much

I'm getting a bit tired of people who don't know what they are talking about bouncing this type of nonsense around as some kind of legitimate explanation for why (always seems to be Nintendo) stuff doesn't sell well.

Weren't marketed well?

Really?

There was a demo of Inazuma Eleven included as part of the LTD edition of the second Professor Layton game in Japan, and if I'm not mistaken this demo version on DS cart was also GIVEN AWAY FREE at the Tokyo Game Show last year for those prepared to queue for it.

I've also seen ads for the game in Famitsu.

So just what wasn't marketed well then?  Please give a detailed answer.

 

 



PSN - hanafuda

hanafuda said:
Riachu said:
The reason why those games sold poorly was because they weren't marketed very well or weren't hyped very much

I'm getting a bit tired of people who don't know what they are talking about bouncing this type of nonsense around as some kind of legitimate explanation for why (always seems to be Nintendo) stuff doesn't sell well.

Weren't marketed well?

Really?

There was a demo of Inazuma Eleven included as part of the LTD edition of the second Professor Layton game in Japan, and if I'm not mistaken this demo version on DS cart was also GIVEN AWAY FREE at the Tokyo Game Show last year for those prepared to queue for it.

I've also seen ads for the game in Famitsu.

So just what wasn't marketed well then? Please give a detailed answer.

 

 

Inazuma Eleven didn't get that much advertising.  I have seen no TV ads for that game

 



jman8 said:

 My main idea, the point to take home, is that a big install base doesn't necessarily equal large sales. Then I went on and speculated that it might actually be better to release on a lesser selling system like the PSP, Wii, or PS3 (maybe even 360, but that install base may be too small). That second point is hard to prove b/c there's pretty much no way to truly test it out. But it sure does seem that devs are subscribing to the same line of thought that I'm presenting here when you consider that there are games being released for the PSP even though overall software sales are really bad.

This is definately true.  Nothing sales in a vaccuum.  There is no if I just support x system, and make lots of money.  There is competition, their are the effects of the economy, there is how well you market. 

Their are two schools of thought on the different systems.  You have competition and complementary games.  You could say an RPG could sell well on the DS because Square Enix has performed well on the DS and the DS is now the lead platform when you think of RPGs.  Or you could think that the DS is oversaturated with RPGs and people will just buy the Square Enix RPGs.  Then you might look to a console like the Wii which has a high userbase and yet nothing substantial in the RPG market.  Every game is different and its hard to know what exactly is going to sell.  If it wasn't we wouldn't have businesses go out of business. 

 



Are you implying the same game would for some reason sell better on a less popular system?.... because you seem to be.

Of course userbase isn't everything.... but it sure helps.