Squilliam said:
Thanks! Btw, just a quickie because I want to exit this thread asap for now.
In the period of that data the console market Wii/Xb/PS increased from 18 million consoles to 55 million consoles. So the payoff for that increase won't show up on the companies books until next financial year. You're comparing a fledgling Console market to a mature handheld market which is unfair IMO.
The HD market increased by 19 million from 12 million between the PS3/360 to 30 million and the Wii increased by about 24 million so the market size just wasn't there to adequately reward the developers who worked on the consoles.
Xbox 360 numbers 4th April 2008
 |
1,341,223 (-14%) |
112,064,936 |
6.29 |
Xbox 360 numbers 6th April 2008
| 653,810 (+63%) |
35,999,913 |
3.84 |
So its just too early to call the HD consoles failures in regards to developer profitability even with the more expensive model of development.
|
You make some fair points. I'll admit that this year's results will be more indicative of future results than last year's was, simply because of the larger base. But this time I believe you're drawing too narrow a conclusion from the facts. I no longer have the relevant figures before me, but I do recall that the transition into last generation did not see so dramatic a fall in terms of profits.
True, the numbers dropped all around, but even in the first year of the PS2/Gamecube/X-Box era EA alone made more in profits than the nineteen publishers on the list (if you exclude Nintendo, who would just throw everything off). And EA was far from being the only company that was making heavy profits. Things weren't as rosy that first year as they had been at the height of the PlayStation era, but there was still plenty of money to be made. So this transition has been bringing in hitherto unseen pain for publishers, and as the chart shows things have a long ways to go before they get better.
But there are other indicators as well. If this site's figures are correct, the 360 is rapidly closing in on the lifetime sales of its predecessor, and yet company's still can't reliably milk a profit off of it. The PS3 is around where the Gamecube was at this point in its lifetime, but so far the platform has proven to be a black hole for most companies. This is why third parties are all but required to go multi-platform now, since neither one alone can justify the development expenses. That's a far, far cry from the situation of any other generation.
Finally, we already do have some figures for this year, as a full fiscal quarter has passed since then, and on a year-to-year basis the profits have not generally been going up for companies that focus on the HD platforms. There have been exceptions, yes, but the majority of companies did not fare quite so well, as the number of closures and mergers show. As an anecdotal aside, it's a sign of the times when Take-2 was nearly taken over by another company, and when even stalwarts like Bioware agree to be purchased just so that they can have the necessary revenue source to stay in business.
Again, I admit that things might suddenly go 180, and that profits might start raining in for the average HD developer (even if it'll be too late for dozens of companies). But the current signs don't really point that way. This saddens and angers me, but when I'm faced with the numbers I'm currently looking at, hope does not shine bright. I've got my fingers crossed that things will improve, but for now...
Tell you what, let's make an agreement. If, in one year's time, most developers are reliably profiting from HD gaming, and the tide of development has not significantly shifted to the Wii and DS because of developers' not being able to play in the HD pool, we'll both agree that Malstrom was wrong on this point, which in turn means that a part of his overall thesis was flawed. Until then, we'll both wait and see what cards the industry deals us. This doesn't mean the discussion is over: as others have been pointing out, Malstrom's analysis has quite a bit more to it, so we can continue to discuss disruption et. al. But for now, it seems we've reached a stalemate, since we're both drawing radically different conclusions from the same peices of data.
Soriku said:
How did Disney make so much money? O_O lol the Wii and DS are uber cash cows for them. Seeing EA in the negatives is kinda weird as well.
Yeah, that's pretty much it. Remember also that Disney's milking movie tie-ins and those High School Musical things for all they're worth. Which, it turns out, is quite a lot...