Zucas - E3 is the entertainment world, and Sony is gonna take it by storm. I think it's gonna hurt the Wii sales. Becuase the news are gonna be' PS3 PS3 PS3 OMG PS3.
And the Wii will go Wii all the way Home. (PS3 home might I add)

Sales have been around 20K lately, these last few weeks a little lower, but I have been keeping my base figure at 20 for sales recently.  1.65*20K = 33K.  Sorry for the confusion if there has been any, I should have listed all of my assumptions anyway.

It will make it so more people can afford the consoles so it will boost sales.

Then you're working from a  faulty assumption. Average the last five weekly numbers. Even weighted equally, which they shouldn't be, they come out to about 18.5K. Weight them, and they'll come out to about 17K per week. 

for the last couple of months, sales have been around 20K. I'm NOT going to use only a 5-week figure, and I probably shouldn't even be using 2 months, but sales have been dropping and therefore conditions have changed, so I am really forced to use a smaller time frame.

A 5-week time frame, would be horrible. That is basing the next 3 or 4 months on just 5 weeks which sounds way too short for me.

What do sales in May have to do with sales in July? If it sold at 30,00 per week in May (random number) and 18,000 in July, which is the more relevant number? You throw out old data when considering trends, and you don't weight old data equally with new data. 

Right ...

Nintendo dominated E3 several times with the Gamecube and N64 and not once did it impact the sales of the Playstation or PS2; hell in 2001 people were blown away by the Gamecube, the XBox was a disaster and the PS2 was 'alright' and yet the Gamecube and XBox both launched to very mediocre sales.

GDC, E3, TGS, Spaceworld, and Gamer's Days do not impact hardware sales ...

On top of that few people who are in the market to buy a $250 Wii are going to decide to spend $500 (or more) on a PS3 instead ...

I think its unlikely that the "price cut" will do anything.
We had a $500 PS3 and still no one bought it. Moving the 60GB model in the place of the 20GB won't help push any more units. Now if the PS3 had a real price drop and dropped to $400 I think that would help move systems.

I think the only way we'll see PS3 sales pick up is if E3 is killer for them. Other wise I see sales continuing on the current track they are going.

"What do sales in May have to do with sales in July? If it sold at 30,00 per week in May (random number) and 18,000 in July, which is the more relevant number? You throw out old data when considering trends, and you don't weight old data equally with new data.  "

1. I assume that this will be projecting the sales for the next 3 months. Any longer, and we will start running into distortions with the holidays.

2. I also assume that using a slightly longer time fram, will average out any inconsistencies present, so if sales are abnormally low or high for a given week, using more weeks will end up canceling the misperceptions of the PS3's sales being overrated, or underrated ( kind of like a football team ). I beleive that using 2 months of previous sales for 3 months of future sales, when by all means, conditions will be very similar, except for the obvious affects of prices, and a few more games for the PS3, is just fine, especially given that sales have stayed at around 20K for longer than they have 17K or whatever they are these last couple of weeks.

3.  Beyond the effect that the assumed price cut and Home will have, the PS3's new Saint's Row, a Harry Potter game, NBA Live ''07, and the Darkness are all decent exclusives that the PS3 will have/has this month.  With respect to the other consoles, the 360 isn't making anythign of interest and the Wii's only title is Mario Party 8.  The PS3 looks strong this month to me.

4.  I'm just too sweet, my predictions are accurate as if given by the oracles themselves.  My attittude, pretentious, and my thumbs.....very sore from those PS3 controllers =)

Something to consider is how the PS3 has been performing all year. Here is the North American Weekly sales since the begining of the year:

This is the three week floating average:

And this is the percentage change in the three week floating average:

So the PS3 has been selling (on average) 5% worse every week from the begining of 2007; this trend would have to be reversed before the sales of the PS3 could really start to pick up dramatically. Is a $100 price reduction large enough to eliminate and reverse this trend?