I say that with the new games coming out, and Home, the PS3 will start selling at about 33-36K in America.                  What about you?

Well, dallas, first we have to be sure that the price cut is happening and CC is not trying to just get rid of excess stock. But I believe that this will spur sales for a while with higher than usual spikes for each killer app that gets released this fall. I don't think it will be a panacea though. IF they can get the 60 gig down to $399 in the near future that might put them up above the 360, but if the Wii craze continues I see PS3 in 2nd for the long hull.

I think that the price cut is a pretty safe bet, given that the rumor has been posted from multiple and lately, very professional sources, but I do like your thoughts on the effects that possible price cuts of the other systems will have on the PS3.

It will be difficult to tell what the price drop alone does, because Lair, Madden arrive in August, and the content will keep coming from then on..

I'm estimating something like this - 

For the rest of July & early August sales will probably get into the 28k-40k range per week.  35k-50k/ week in the rest of August and into September and up until GTA in October is my guess.  GTA should double the sales to 70-100k/week through Black Friday.  After that sales will be probably 140k-200k/week until Christmas, before dropping off 20% or so each week until they are back to 28k-40k..in Late Feb/early March

Being that people had the option to buy a $500 PS3 and it was not popular enough to maintain the model I don't think a $100 price cut will have much of an impact on sales. I would anticipate a 25,000 unit boost the first week, followed by a 15,000 boost the second week, and then the PS3 will probably only gain (on average) 5,000 units per week over what they were selling.

I could be wrong but I think the big psychological problem that the PS3 faces is that no matter what you buy it will cost more than $500 by the time you leave the store; at $400 you could buy a system and a game (or extra controller) without crossing this barrier.

When the PSP had a $30 price cut, the "cut" was about 17% of its original price, of 169 if I'm correct. The PS3 price cut, if we are to assume that it will indeed be $100, will be about $100. The difference between these two products, however, is that the PS3 seems to be a lot more competitive versus its rivals with respect to its potential market strength. If offers more advantages when compared to the wii/360 than does the PSP when compared with the DS.

Didn't PSP sales jump by about 50% after the 1st month after its price cut?

I am expecting that, plus more with the PS3, based on its blockbuster game announcements, and Home. I say that the PS3's sales will increase by 65% based on its greater degree of strength, if it would be logical to start off with the increase in sales of the PSP and then adjusting them according my perception of the PS3's strength.

I don't see the point of the pricedrop neither. If they would drop it to XBOX 360 price it would be clear what they intend to do ;).

I guess that they either want to draw some more developers towards the PS3, but in reality i think thats keeping developers to the PS3. You may say what you want, if they are aready building a PS3 game and are half way trough, they are still better off (re)making it a Wii game and stop PS3 development.
A second guess is that they want to keep the PS3's momentum as a blue-ray player, yet that would only be for internal affairs and since Sony's ceo is already on the case it seems unlikely.

I think the whole point is to have more games on the PS3, i only see MGS coming as an AAA title but if you see what other consoles are offering... If you see that the sales of a super hyped launch game like resistance get a mere 1.3 million copies vs gears 4.25 million you'll understand that it's almost stupid to make a PS3 game. And with these numbers it's almost impossible to make an exclusive game...

But i'm going a bit off toppic there, i think sales will increase in the first weeks and then decline to like a 1.1or1.2 factor of original sales. I think the biggest profit lays in the fact that the end-year's sales won't be incredibly bad and that the PS3 will come a step closer to position itself as a follow-up of the PS2 not a seperate brand. But i don't think they'll make the 11million by march 08 as they promised.

But i think microsoft will lower their prices as well, at least for the cheapest model.

It'll have a minimal affect. Sony is doing this at the apsolute worst time. Wii is on top of the world and has everything going for it. But dropping it $100 to a still expensive price isn't going to bring any of that down. It will help weekly sales definetly but not by much to make this huge difference. Ultimately the only thing it'll lead to is S ony losing even more off the PS3. I think holidays this year was the best time to have a pricedrop cause at least it's the holiday season and with this lowering of price your insured a lot more sales. This is just a bad idea in my opinion for the PS3 and Sony as a company.

The price cut and games should start boosting PS3 sales starting August and after that the levels will stay higher for good then what we are at now.

Basically I am predicting we've seen the lowest levels of the PS3 in North America and it will be higher weekly sales from now on.

So, which is it? Will it increase by 65%, or will it reach 33-36K? Keep in mind that recent weekly sales have been aroun 18K. I'll be surprised if pre-Lair/Madden sales reach 35,000, personally.