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Forums - Sales - HD Console sales break down for when or if the PS3 will pass the Xbox 360.

thx1139 on 26 August 2008
scottie said:
First of all, check your subtraction for the past 52 weeks.

Ignoring the 3 weeks after MGSIV was released then you must also remove the 3 weeks that the 360 did best - that's only fair.

And even then, i don't think you maths is valid. Historically the 3rd year is the year in which a console has the highest sales - so in 2009 360 sales should drop and PS3 sales should rise

 

 You neglect to notice that typically when the 3rd year sales happen the console also tends to be at a price far more favorable.  I would say with this generation the 360 (and the PS3) best years still ahead.  PS2 priced dropped from $300 to $200 1.5 years after NA release.  360 has now (with September price reduction) dropped that same $100 amount, but it took nearly 3 years.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

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xenophon13 on 26 August 2008

What kind of statistics did you take? You don't just drop out the 3 highest months because you think that makes since in your head. If you drop anything your drop the highest and the lowest to get rid of possible anomalies. you don't just drop the highest, thats poor math. And games released that provide spikes increase the overall amount yes? so they should be included.



rocketpig on 26 August 2008
libellule said:
rocketpig said:
I love these threads. The OP posts numbers and the PS3 fanboys come out of the woodwork and scream "u r teh WRONG!!1" because of the blinders they're putting on to cover up the harsh realities of the world.

There were hordes of PS3 owners last year screaming about how the PS3 would pass the 360 in 2008... Well, that ain't gonna happen. Now a few of them are screaming about 2009. Chances are, that won't happen either.

Don't let reality get in the way of your hopes and dreams, folks. Ignore those numbers and the looming 360 price cut and keep on *knowing* that any day now, the PS3 is going to capture the hearts and minds of the general public.

FYI, I think the PS3 will pass the 360 ultimately... Right around the time it stops mattering to Microsoft. They'll be preparing for a new console and the 360 will take a back seat to new offerings. In any case, MS has made large strides this generation and Sony has lost an enormous amount of ground.

 

 ==> "FYI, I think the PS3 will pass the 360 ultimately ..."

What an unsafe prediction ...

In a way, I m asking my self what is the use of the 8 others lines that are in your post ... free bashing at people who take a bit more risk in their prediction ???

No, I'm bashing people who entered this thread and referred to the OP's numbers as "garbage" or somehow insinuated that their "guess" was better than his, despite the fact that he provided numbers to back up his reasoning while none of his detractors did so.

As for my "prediction", it's convenient how you ignored the rest of the paragraph where I said "right around the time it stops mattering to Microsoft". Using standard timelines to form a conclusion, it shouldn't be hard to deduce that I expect the PS3 to pass the 360 in late 2010 or early 2011.

 




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Spiteful49 on 26 August 2008
rocketpig said:

FYI, I think the PS3 will pass the 360 ultimately... Right around the time it stops mattering to Microsoft. They'll be preparing for a new console and the 360 will take a back seat to new offerings. In any case, MS has made large strides this generation and Sony has lost an enormous amount of ground.

 

QFT! 

In the end it wont matter.  MS has already won this gen by getting so much of the market share while battling the "Nostalgia" of the PS2 even with a system that has chronic problems.  I do like that the PS3 is catching up and MS is lowering prices.  Battle of the HD systems is great!!  If one was a clear cut winner then it would be just like Nintendo and the prices would never change.



libellule on 26 August 2008
rocketpig said:
libellule said:
rocketpig said:
I love these threads. The OP posts numbers and the PS3 fanboys come out of the woodwork and scream "u r teh WRONG!!1" because of the blinders they're putting on to cover up the harsh realities of the world.

There were hordes of PS3 owners last year screaming about how the PS3 would pass the 360 in 2008... Well, that ain't gonna happen. Now a few of them are screaming about 2009. Chances are, that won't happen either.

Don't let reality get in the way of your hopes and dreams, folks. Ignore those numbers and the looming 360 price cut and keep on *knowing* that any day now, the PS3 is going to capture the hearts and minds of the general public.

FYI, I think the PS3 will pass the 360 ultimately... Right around the time it stops mattering to Microsoft. They'll be preparing for a new console and the 360 will take a back seat to new offerings. In any case, MS has made large strides this generation and Sony has lost an enormous amount of ground.

 

 ==> "FYI, I think the PS3 will pass the 360 ultimately ..."

What an unsafe prediction ...

In a way, I m asking my self what is the use of the 8 others lines that are in your post ... free bashing at people who take a bit more risk in their prediction ???

No, I'm bashing people who entered this thread and referred to the OP's numbers as "garbage" or somehow insinuated that their "guess" was better than his, despite the fact that he provided numbers to back up his reasoning while none of his detractors did so.

As for my "prediction", it's convenient how you ignored the rest of the paragraph where I said "right around the time it stops mattering to Microsoft". Using standard timelines to form a conclusion, it shouldn't be hard to deduce that I expect the PS3 to pass the 360 in late 2010 or early 2011.

 

He can provide numbers all the way but past numbers will not help him a lot to find the correct future numbers.
At best, this is only a guess. We can also make others guess based on others parameters than PAST numbers (future price drop, games, brandname, sales trends). That is all "we" are saying.
OP is the one that dared create a thread to post his personnal prediction, not "us".

About your prediction, my limited mind was not able to read in your own.
Now, thx to your last post, I see u expect the PS3 to pass the Xbox360 in late 2010/early 2011 (close to the OP prediction indeed). What is funny is that you are the one who bash the "PS3 fanboys" while you didn't provide any evidence or arguments explaining us why you believe it "will not matter to MS" in late 2010/early 2011 ...



Time to Work !

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Kyros on 26 August 2008

you said his numbers were "garbage".


I didn't say the numbers were garbage. I said the assumptions he made (will stay the same) for his "most likely" scenario are garbage. So this is also garbage. His mathematics may be correct. His interpolation of the future is garbage.



JGarret on 26 August 2008

"while you didn't provide any evidence or arguments explaining us why you believe it "will not matter to MS" in late 2010/early 2011 ..."

libelule, I think rocketpig says it won´t matter because by 2011 the next generation will (probably) be really close.



rocketpig on 26 August 2008
libellule said:
rocketpig said:
libellule said:
rocketpig said:
I love these threads. The OP posts numbers and the PS3 fanboys come out of the woodwork and scream "u r teh WRONG!!1" because of the blinders they're putting on to cover up the harsh realities of the world.

There were hordes of PS3 owners last year screaming about how the PS3 would pass the 360 in 2008... Well, that ain't gonna happen. Now a few of them are screaming about 2009. Chances are, that won't happen either.

Don't let reality get in the way of your hopes and dreams, folks. Ignore those numbers and the looming 360 price cut and keep on *knowing* that any day now, the PS3 is going to capture the hearts and minds of the general public.

FYI, I think the PS3 will pass the 360 ultimately... Right around the time it stops mattering to Microsoft. They'll be preparing for a new console and the 360 will take a back seat to new offerings. In any case, MS has made large strides this generation and Sony has lost an enormous amount of ground.

 

 ==> "FYI, I think the PS3 will pass the 360 ultimately ..."

What an unsafe prediction ...

In a way, I m asking my self what is the use of the 8 others lines that are in your post ... free bashing at people who take a bit more risk in their prediction ???

No, I'm bashing people who entered this thread and referred to the OP's numbers as "garbage" or somehow insinuated that their "guess" was better than his, despite the fact that he provided numbers to back up his reasoning while none of his detractors did so.

As for my "prediction", it's convenient how you ignored the rest of the paragraph where I said "right around the time it stops mattering to Microsoft". Using standard timelines to form a conclusion, it shouldn't be hard to deduce that I expect the PS3 to pass the 360 in late 2010 or early 2011.

 

He can provide numbers all the way but past numbers will not help him a lot to find the correct future numbers.
At best, this is only a guess. We can also make others guess based on others parameters than PAST numbers (future price drop, games, brandname, sales trends). That is all "we" are saying.
OP is the one that dared create a thread to post his personnal prediction, not "us".

About your prediction, my limited mind was not able to read in your own.
Now, thx to your last post, I see u expect the PS3 to pass the Xbox360 in late 2010/early 2011 (close to the OP prediction indeed). What is funny is that you are the one who bash the "PS3 fanboys" while you didn't provide any evidence or arguments explaining us why you believe it "will not matter to MS" in late 2010/early 2011 ...

I don't feel it's necessary to explain the obvious. My posts are long enough as is.

 




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Deneidez on 26 August 2008
KZ2 said:

Ps3 in December 2008 sells worldwide 6 million consoles to X360 1 million consoles for December 2008 = 5 million gain to the Ps3 puts Ps3 in front of the X360.

Gap to November should fall to 4.5 million lead to X360 over Ps3.

4.5 million - 5 million = 0.5 million lead to Ps3 over X360 by Xmas 2008.

I think X360 will sell 10 million and 10k in december 2008 and PS3 will sell only 10k. See

10 010k - 10k = 10 million, it will make gap even more huge.

(Chances for that happening is abysmal, but everything is possible when I BELIEVE!)

 

For real...

@Kyros

Based on statistics(science) steven787 is right, 'unfortunately'. You cannot predict future by adding something you wish to happen. Have you ever consider that it might go another way around like my 'prediction'? :)

 

@steven787

Nice analysis and if trend is same it will be quite accurate also.



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libellule on 26 August 2008
rocketpig said:

I don't feel it's necessary to explain the obvious. My posts are long enough as is.

 

 

 ==> then, to be fair, I update my prediction to late 2009/early2010 (before march)

we will see.



Time to Work !