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Forums - Sales Discussion - Lazard Analyst: PS3 & 360 games need to sell 600k to break even, Wii 300k

mrstickball said:
Therefore, a PS3 + 360 game to break even would be just under 700,000 by this analysis....Not too bad, but not too good either.

 If this is true then it is very good. Hence the porting going on.



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HappySqurriel said:
ckmlb said:
HappySqurriel said:
ckmlb said:

 

 


No, I'm really not ...

It is a well known effect, if a game is not exclusive it doesn't receive the same level of hype as an exclusive game; had Grand Theft Auto 4 been released exclusively for either the PS3 or XBox 360 we wouldn't hear much about games like Lair or Mass Effect because either systems fans would use it as an example of why their system was so great. Platform specific gaming sites devote far more attention to exclusive titles than multiplatform titles ...

You do see some increase in sales by making a game multiplatform but it certainly is not a linear scale ... Releasing a game for the PS3, XBox 360 and PC would probably increase sales to 1.5 to 2 times the sales of putting it on a single platform (obviously depending on the genre and popularity of the game).

If producing a game as a multiplatform title really brought in the sales increases you are anticipating no game would ever be exclusive ...


What fanboys use in their arguments is insignificant. For the average buyer, GTA IV on the PS3 (if they own that) or GTA IV on the 360 (if they own that ) is the same. Doesn't matter which one was the ported version.

Also you say there would be no exclusives, haven't you noticed, there are like no 3rd party exclusives anymore? Everything is being announced for PS3 and 360. The Wii doesn't factor into this because of the disparity. 



Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

ckmlb - if 700k is the case (which I am assuming so), it's going to still be very advantageous for developers. Many of the games that would of otherwise failed on 1 console as an exclusive (Darkness, VF5, Rainbow Six, ect), are becoming very lucrative. This way, if it does well on one console (RSV on 360), the extra money from the 2nd console becomes gravy, and vice versa. For the Darkness, it'll easily pass 500k in the US alone for both - a strong succuess for those that made the game, as it should hit 750k or even 1m w/w.

Likewise, MP helps both systems hardware out. The 360 gets a huge boost in Japan (can you even imagine what RE5 is going to do to 360 hardware?), and likewise, PS3 gets a boost in the West as the PS3 owners get a strong version of each game, and neither version is neccissarily worse in any ways (whereas last gen, the PS2 was always the definintive first edition, and later on, the Xbox and GC got the scraps).

Because of this, I still believe it'll be hard for the Wii to get a huge leg on the major 3rd party IPs. In the case of GTAIV, sales won't miss a beat. Yes, they had to go on 2 consoles, but sales wise, GTAIV should get to GTA:SA levels or higher. For RE5's case, I see it doing better than any other RE yet.



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ckmlb said:

What fanboys use in their arguments is insignificant. For the average buyer, GTA IV on the PS3 (if they own that) or GTA IV on the 360 (if they own that ) is the same. Doesn't matter which one was the ported version.

Also you say there would be no exclusives, haven't you noticed, there are like no 3rd party exclusives anymore? Everything is being announced for PS3 and 360. The Wii doesn't factor into this because of the disparity. 


There were tons of PS3 exclusives that became multiplatform mainly because they couldn't break even on the PS3; publishers either saw the price tag of the PS3, or the low sales, and realized they could not make their sales projections by releasing for that system.

If the PS3 was selling like the PS2 publishers could (potentially) lose far more sales by porting it to the XBox 360 (by losing the focus of the userbase that an exclusive title has) then they would gain by releasing it as an exclusive. Certainly, not every game will gain this advantage, but most mid-sized titles gain from exclusivity.

A game like Project Gothem Racing would be an obscure title if it was multiplatform but since it is XBox exclusive it is a million seller.



Just remember that if the Wii took the major horse-power route (it would ruin it's overall design and appeal), the console would have been DOA with no chance of being a success afterwards.



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mrstickball said:
Taking into account various stories I've read, a port from 360>PS3, and vice versa costs around 10% of the development budget.

Therefore, a PS3 + 360 game to break even would be just under 700,000 by this analysis....Not too bad, but not too good either.

 Did namaco say 500k to break even on the Ps3 ? 360 dev is easier should cost a bit less.

 



too much generalization, every game has different development costs, and different sized audiences. How many PS3 games have even sold 600k? Have any 3rd party games even sold that much? Even Wii games at 300k seems like too much, but again it depends on the game.



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mrstickball said:

In the case of GTAIV, sales won't miss a beat. Yes, they had to go on 2 consoles, but sales wise, GTAIV should get to GTA:SA levels or higher. For RE5's case, I see it doing better than any other RE yet.

I agree with most of what you say, mrstickball, but not this. San Andreas sold slightly under 15 million copies; it is the 11th best-selling game of all time according to vgchartz. Do you really think Grand Theft Auto IV is going to sell at the same rate - or go higher? Currently, even if every single 360 and PS3 owner in the world bought the game, the sales still would fall short of that number. You're basically saying that GTA4 will be one of the top 10 selling games in the history of video games. I think it will do well, but not THAT well! The 360 and PS3 just don't have the install base necessary to sell anywhere close to that number of units.

I also don't see Resident Evil 5 topping 6 million in sales (which is roughly what the best game in the series, RE2 did). The Resident Evil games have been decreasing in sales over the past few generations; take a look:

Name Console Publisher Japan America Others Total
Resident Evil 2 Capcom 2.28 1.93 1.61 5.82
Resident Evil Capcom 1.68 2.10 1.27 5.05
Resident Evil 3 Capcom 1.55 1.13 0.84 3.52
Resident Evil: Code Veronica X Capcom 0.34 1.04 0.69 2.07
Resident Evil 4 Capcom 0.49 0.67 0.75 1.91
Resident Evil 4 Capcom 0.22 0.94 0.45 1.61
Resident Evil Capcom 0.36 0.63 0.41 1.40
Resident Evil Outbreak Capcom 0.47 0.53 0.33 1.33
Resident Evil 0 Capcom 0.45 0.52 0.29 1.26
Resident Evil: Code Veronica Capcom 0.47 0.42 0.25 1.14

If you add together PS2 + GC sales for Resident Evil 4, the total comes out to just about the same as RE3 (3.52 million), although the recent Wii sales push that figure up a bit. Still nowhere close to RE1/2 levels though. The low install bases will again limit the amount of sales done by 360/PS3. I can certainly see 2-3 million, but 6? Not going to happen, I'm afraid.

Not a single "next-gen" game has hit 5 million in sales yet (Gears is closest at 4.25 million, and Wii Play next at 3.76 - I am obviously not counting Wii Sports here). With that in mind, you might want to be careful about predicting a 6 million seller and a 15 million (!) seller in the same post.



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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

I disagree on RE5 giving the 360 a big hardware boost in Japan, same reason why I disagree that even if FF XIII would go to 360 that it would boost massively in Japan.

Both those games will give boosts to the 360, but much bigger ones to the PS3. Where it matters is in the US where having those two games on the 360 as well means big for the 360.



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johnsobas -

Are you talking exclusives, multi-ports, or what for sales?

For the Wii, Red Steel, Rayman, Madden, Sonic & the Secret Rings, and Tiger Woods Wii all reached, or nearly reached 300k in the US alone (S&TSR hit around 250k, but did well enough in Europe + Japan to easily break the 300k mark).

For the PS3, I can't think of anything that's got close to the 600k mark yet, but many games haven't released in all territories, and most games are multi-port. There haven't been any exclusives to reach 600k, but multi-ports have done very well overall, but not reached 600k. I'd consider RSV (what it will do), Madden 07, and a few other MP's succuesses. As for original time-exclusives (such as VF, Gundam Mousou, ect), they've bombed pretty bad, and Gundam Mousou is the only one that has a chance of getting 600k, but still has to show good US and European numbers to break that (although it should. It's already @ 320k in Japan alone).



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