That makes sense I guess, but that's revenue overtime doesn't DvD become cheaper to develop and Blu-ray is still pretty expensive for the average Joe.

My point is revenue tracks production but if something is expensive to begin with when your trying to relate it to something that cheap to produce relatively that context seems like apples and oranges.

One would have to sell a lot more to catch up to the revenue of the other on a leveled playing field.

Which leads me to believe Blu-Ray is really struggling..

By the way when I read the title I thought that it was about a Brazilian football movie.

There are a lot of things he is loosely referring to there which someone who doesn't follow the industry wouldn't know.  VOD NEVER gets day-and-date DVD movie releases, which in a lot of people's minds holds the format back.  This may change in the future.

One of the problems with VOD services is that there are so many, and each service carries different movies and a variable number of movies.  Obviously they share some movies.  And then not all of those are in hi-def either, which makes things even more complicated.  Some you can buy, some you can only rent, ad nauseum.

Downloads are also hampered by compression issues.  On a Blu-Ray things need FAR less compression because 1) The space is there 2) The user doesn't have to wait to download anything.

He may not have meant all those things, and may have meant some I didn't mention, but those are all important issues for VOD.

This.

I also like to buy older movies on DVD as the prices have come down significantly.  Seldom do I ever buy new releases because if it's good enough to merit a purchase chances are I saw it in theaters and it's still fresh in my mind.  A year down the road, by the time I want to watch it again it's much cheaper and if you frequent stores like I do you can just wait for stuff to go on sale. I recently bought The Da Vinci Code and Stranger than Fiction for $7 each, and Prison Break Season 1 for $30. 

On Blu-Ray all of that would run me between 130-140 dollars.  Compared to 44, I know where my money's going. 

I guess I'm one of those people for whom the extra quality doesn't justify the overinflated prices.  I want to see $100 players and nearly equitably priced disks with great sale prices before I even consider upgrading.

with retailers already phasing out sd tvs, they will do the same when they think the time is right with dvds, is the point this article is probably making. Go to the electronics section of any Walmart and you will see the back wall lined with hd tvs and off in a corner maybe 5 sd tvs. I don't think you will be able to completely phase out dvds though until you start seeing old blu rays being put on sale at less than $10 to clear out stock. I know that if there is a movie I have seen on tv and liked or rented and liked, but not liked enough to put $20 down on, I will wait for it to hit the $5 bin.

It wasn't until very recently that VCRs and VHS movies stopped being carried on store shelves, and I think it is very possible that DVD will live longer after the release of the "replacement" format than VHS simply because DVD is dramatically cheaper than VHS was (both in terms of discs and players) and many people will be fairly happy with a low-cost upconverting DVD player for years.

Honestly, I don't think it will ever happen. Blu-Ray will become the next laserdisc: a niche format for obsessive videophiles. Most people will stay with their adequate and affordable DVD hardware.

With the rate of piracy growth of movies. I expect to see more a decline of physical sales for all format in 2012 the same way there is in the music industry.

well all i can say is this,

sooner then expected

I agree that people, like with SD to HDtv's, don't see the point in changing right away. But i will say the Digital analog switchover will affect people's interests in buying HD boxes or HDtv's and therefore product that matches those stats.

But theyre still selling tvs that have neither HD tuners built in or the resolution to properly sell it.

DVD's will continue on, existing alongside BR for alot longer than what video did with the disc tech. This is because DVD's really gave something unique and different, something BR doesn't seem to be doing.

Now i posted this because i wanted to gauge whether people think the PS3 will affect this estimation (in terms of total BR disc sales), or whether its going to take longer etc?

Oh about downloading, i have downloaded tons of DVD to Divx conversions in the last 4 yrs. Honestly its not that much worse quality.

I believe whether HD downloads are necessary will be dictated by the majority, who have still not bought BR players btw, and they will decide whether the download bandwidth is worth the cost.

This is an issue just being raised in the US but most countries have had to pay extra for larger files for a while. It's really not worth it, and maybe that sums up how people treat BR as a retail purchase too.