Current Totals:

GTA4 PS360 Combined - 10,015,834
Wii Fit - 6,254,696
GTA4 360 - 5,766,396
GTA4 PS3 - 4,249,438

So Wii Fit is currently 3,761,138 behind GTA4 PS360 Combined...

Last Week:
Wii Fit - 244,587
GTA4 PS360 Combined - 67,319

So Wii Fit is currently catching up at a rate of 177,268/week

That means that in 22 weeks, Wii Fit would surpass GTA4 PS360 Combined at the current rate.

There are 22 weeks left to report on this year...so it is possible to happen this year...

Helps:
Wii Fit has better legs than GTA4 PS360
Wii Fit production may be increased, but won't decrease
Wii Fit is still sold out, so demand>supply

Hurts:
Wii Fit can only sell what is shipped
Holidays will mean good GTA4 PS360 sales while Wii Fit will still be shipped=sold
As ps360 consoles are sold at a greater rate this fall, so will GTA4
Wii Fit only averaged 135k greater sales than GTA4 PS360 Combined the past 5 weeks averaged

Conclusion: It is inevitable that Wii Fit will outsell GTA4 PS360 Combined, but it has only maybe 50% chance of doing it in 2008 because Nintendo is conservative in production.  It will easily pass it by next spring.  If we had current production level data, then we could make a more accurate estimate (are they stockpiling them now for xmas, or does shipped=produced??)

note: this only pertains to PS3 and 360 sales, not PC sales

Maybe however don't see why we need an entire topic for this. And remember the same won't be shipped now that will be shipped in the holidays. So there still will be increases. If Wii Fit can still sell 250k a week up until holidays then it will see a 500k week in the peak there.

a) why is a topic on this so bad? even source has created topic(s) on this before, but that was way earlier with less data than we have now

b) what is up with people here spending half their posts being an 'op critic'? if a topic is bad, it will fall down and be forgotten...if people wanna post about every .1% increase in market share, then let them and just don't respond and it goes away from front page in a few hours

changing op to specify consoles...GTA4 PS3/360 combined sales

I never said it was bad just pointless. Something that can be discussed in Wii Fit's page rather than a separate topic. And I gave you my point of view and a lesson in holiday sales. You should say thank you haha.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that Nintendo was holding back a little supply of Wii Fit every week in order to push it over the holiday period; they know that Wii Fit has the potential to sell 2+ Million copies in November and December, and that outside of those months it (probably) can't sustain sales anywhere near that range, so stockpiling 50,000 to 100,000 units a week could translate into massive sales over the holiday season.

that's the question

if they are already stockpiling, then the chance goes way up

but if they stockpile later, then to get to that 500k/week, then average sales will have to drop some between now and xmas, so that doesn't help the sales

that's why we need info on production levels and planned increases

if they increase production at all this year, then it becomes the favorite to outsell ps360 gta4 combined in 2008...if they don't increase production but are already stockpiling 50k/week for xmas, then it becomes the favorite....if they don't increase production and aren't yet stockpiling, then i think it falls short in 2008

yeah, i appreciate you at least giving some meat to your post, zucas

my rant was more directed at how it seems so many threads have the first response be something griping about the thread being pointless these days

Well there is not necessarily a steady rate.  More than likely right now Ninty is producing a fixed rate and releasing a changing amount around the world while saving some units for later.  Meaning let's hypothetically say they produce 400k a week, and ship 300k out next week while stockpiling 100k.  Then the week after that they ship 450k.  Meaning overall in 2 weeks they saved 50k.  I mean this is all hypothetical so don't quote me on that but the point is when they stockpile sometimes it's for the next week or sometimes they are saving for the holiday season but usually they'll have stock that can be sent at any time they just don't choose too.

And maybe production isn't at a fixed rate, but the point is when a game sells so well like this you can have numerous dropoffs and increases while still being able to have a huge increase in holiday sales.  But once holiday season hits any stock and any being produced will be shipped.  Why?  Because there is 100% guarantee that it will sell and all of it thus it would cost you money to hold it back.  With a title that sells out you can't ship enough during holiday season with its huge brand.  Thus if there was a week that you are talking about that will have little to no sales it would be the weak after Christmas Eve.

WiiFit will outsell GTA because GTA was more a hyped game. Wii Fit will sold 365 days of the year good. You always see them in the top 5.