The chances that PS3 will sell over 6 million by the year end has been decreasing... In the last 3 weeks, the maximum amount of expected PS3 units sold has decreased from 6.76 million to 6.06 million (while the minimum has slightly increased to just below 5 million units). So PS3 will have sold 5-6 million by the year end.

By the end of 2007

Wii : 14-15 mil
X360 : 12-13 mil
PS3 : 5-6 mil

The christmas season and holydays just seem much stronger in Europe and other countries under the "others " category that in Japan .

Still ,the PS3 will sell much more in Japan this holidays that the last ones with hardware shortages of great proportions .Also the PS3 launched in Japan with only 4 games .It has done little to reverse this until now .In all the year there have been like 9 releases .Virtua Fighter 5 ,Virtua Tennis 3 ,Mist of Chaos ,Gundam Mussou ,Ninja Gaiden Sigma ,Folklore ,Pro Spirits Baseball ,and Sonic ....12 if we add Madden ,NBA Homecourt and Call of Duty 3.And 2 of these games have been released just in the last 10 days.So with a good flow of software coming for the later months of the year maybe we will see the numbers change considerably .Most japanese seem to want a PS3 ,they just dont want to buy one at that price and with the current library of games.

Japan has the lowest price on the PS3 ($400) and the highest adoption rate of HDTVs in the world and yet no matter what game is released in Japan it has nearly no impact on sales. The Japaneese market has rejected the PS3 inspite of what people may think.

The best way I can demonstrate this is that currently the PS3 is selling slower than the Gamecube did and within a couple of weeks it will be selling worse than the Dreamcast did:

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS3&reg2=Japan&cons3=DC&reg3=Japan&align=1

Yeah, I can't see much of a price reduction in Japan. Even with the lowest WW prices and bundled games/movies, it still sells poorly.

HappySqurriel,true what you´re saying,but do you sometimes think the PS3´s poor performance in Japan is due to more than the "high price + lack of games combo"?...almost as if there´s been a huge shift in Japanese gamers´ preference in games over the last 2 years or something like that...don´t know if I´m expressing myself well enough,but do you get my question?

If the japanese want Next Gen games and graphics they sooner or later will have to buy a PS3 .This is not the same situation as with other consoles .If the Cube sold poorly and the PS2 strong it was terrible for the Cube as those PS2 owners wouldnt really need to buy the Cube ever .They were perfectly substitutive .On the other hand the Wii cant substitute the PS3 ,and when the japanese want next gen graphics and games they will buy PS3 even if they have Wiis at home .

As for the price ,and this is for HappySquirrel ,it is true it is cheaper there but so are the X360 (250 with game ) and the Wii (170 ) .Japan has been in recession since 1992 right now and high prices scare the hell out of them .400 there may be as much as 600 here ,and in comparision with the other consoles prices the relation is the same .

The PS3 has a huge chance and great reason to sell a ton this holiday season in Japan.

1. $50 - $100 price drop
2. Eye of Judgment

Those are the only reasons needed for it to sell well.. heck I'll go as far as saying the first one isnt totally needed.

PS3 will definitely sell better in the "Others" region than Japan this holiday season; it's a bigger market and the sales have clearly trended better there. I agree with mrstickball's analysis on this issue (PS3 already cheapest in Japan and not selling, few compelling software titles to push systems, etc.) and won't bother to repeat it further.

I think that the 400k number for December is also on the high side. For whatever reason, the Japanese have decided to reject the PS3 - I find it hard to believe that sales will go that high. PS3 is tracking well below Gamecube levels over there currently, and Gamecube was well short of that number in its second December. Maybe a December release for Metal Gear Solid could push numbers into that range, maybe not. I think somewhere in the ~300k range for the PS3 is a lot more likely for Japan this holiday season, and the Europe/Others region will easily beat that.

ssj12 said: The PS3 has a huge chance and great reason to sell a ton this holiday season in Japan.

1. $50 - $100 price drop
2. Eye of Judgment

But the PS3 is already much cheaper in Japan than anywhere else in the world; it's selling for around $450 if I understand correctly. And Sony is still having trouble breaking 10k per week right now. Even if Sony could afford to cut the price further, I'm skeptical over how many additional units would sell.

As far as Eye of Judgement, I guess we'll have to see. It looks very cool in theory, but I'll have to see a finished product before I can deliver an accurate assessment.

Surely Europe. As someone pointed out, Japan seems to have lost its taste for Sony products (especially consoles).

If sales have a sustained jump when EG is released, then there might be hope for this Xmas. But in all honesty, I can't imagine a GOLF game being the one to spark the sales (considering thats the sort of title that the Wii is strong with).

The DS still owns Japan, and will continue to do so this Xmas.