Do you guys work for viral marketers? Its going to be a cold day in hell when we don't have at least five of these threads a day.

On topic:

No.

Ten Reasons:

1) The ten year plan is nonsense. PS2 will still sell 1m units in 2011 because its peak was so high, thats year 11 from the 2000 Japan launch. The plan is theoretical. It worked even better than expected with PS2 because PS2 had the highest peak of any system ever (21m+ shipped in a year) until DS last year (30.3m shipped in a year).

2) Xbox 360 is more viable than Xbox ever was in all three regions worldwide.

3) Wii is trending faster than DS and DS is trending faster than PS2. In other words, regionally Wii sales>PS2 sales>PS3 sales

4) Blu Ray relevance is over rated, its not enough of a step up for most people to become the DVD of the future. I know 30 people in my college with HD TVs, 20 of them have Wiis, none of them have Blu Ray. I know thats just anecdotal, so here is better evidence: Japan and Europe have higher adoption rates of Blu Ray than USA, and Wii still outsells PS3 in those reasons. I see no reason to expect a change, as Wii is close to $400 in much of Europe vs. PS3 at $600 - both are overpriced.

5) Most big hits are now multiplatform, Wii, DS or PSP games.

6) PS2 sold over 7m in the USA in three years in the Americas, and over 4m in Japan in its peak. PS3 is going to have issues peaking at 2m in a year in Japan and over 5m in the USA in one year, let alone multiple years that it would need to top PS2.

7) Wii & Xbox 360 will always be cheaper than PS3, and if PS3 started to gain momentum (i.e. outselling the other two by a wide margin worldwide), one or both successors would be announced, and the PS3 tech advantage would dissappear overnight as would the sales momentum.

8) Sony can't aggressively cut prices right now because the world economy is in the shitter. By extension Sony is making less money than they would be otherwise and they lose money on PS3. Selling more PS3s is actually bad for Sony at the moment even though alot of the costs are recouped from software.

9) Higher development costs and slower launch sales mean that PS3 development is risky for developers. There are only so many games that can sell 1 million copies on a base of 15m, and with diminishing returns vs. last gen, the portables, PS2, PC, Wii and cellphones look like better investments.

10) Women greatly prefer Wii to traditional platforms. Even if you think think only sells to a fraction of the men PS2 does, women are very under-served in this industry, and catering to them is a way to achieve huge growth very quickly. Make no mistake, DS wouldn't be where it is without women, and Wii is following a similar trajectory. Among men, Xbox 360 hurts PS3 in the west since its cheaper, and Wii hurts PS3 because its more diversified and cheaper.

1. the ps2 didn't sold those 21+ the first year, neither the DS its 30+ actually after it third year+, the ps3 still have a chance go go the long way it may not be 150 million but closer the 75- 100 millions

2. yes it more competive but its loosing ground faster than anything and still now the xbox its pretty much nothing in japan, and soon will be outsold in europe.

3. and wii owners will not buy a ps3?, wii its hardly a step up over the gamecube, i bought wii first, but then all the games are play are still going HD to the ps3 so i bought one, how you do know people are not going to buy a second console to play ff13 or re5? look at GTA4 monsters sales.

4. DVD was nothing its first years either, blu ray won the war, it may have no serious impact in the ps3 sales but its already choosen as teh deco facto HD movie format.

what the wii had to do anything with movies? it doesn't even play DVDs, oh wait.. i get it, wii games actually look good on a 50' 1080p /sarcams.

5. multiplatform as ps3/xbox360 ff13 re5 gta4 are on it.

6. in japan 2 games.. final fantasy xii, final fantasy xiii versus, will make it close to that in the year of release, but i doubt in the US they will be able to do that, in europe easily.

7. even they are cheaper that doesn't mean they are going to stop selling ps3, even with shortages lower priced xbox360

ps3 been outselling it.

8. as right now... but that doesn't mean it can't reach a 299$ sweet spot price in the comming years, look what 100$ +mgs4 discount did to the US a month ago 400k in just weeks.

9. thats why they are focusing on first party. with games like heavy rain, GT5, team ico project, god of war 3 they have good line up for 2009-2010, and even so considering it growing they are getting many HD multiplatforms.

10. ps2 didn't have many women games actually nothing compared to the DS but the ps2 it close the 140 millions.

ps3 will do well, in the console market sony it years away to be outshined, they may not make 150 million ps3 in 10 years but the ps3 will do well enough to not be considered a failure like the dreamcast.

2. Xbox is actually gaining momentum in Japan, and is selling better in NA and Others this year. I don't see how it is losing ground faster.

3. I'm sure some Wii owners will buy a PS3, but you have to look at the demographic of the console. First and foremost, the Nintendo faithful. Some of them would rather be shot dead than seen playing a Sony Console. Secondly, the casuals. They may never EVER buy another console this gen because they are happy with the software on the Wii. In most cases, at least to the hardcore, the Wii IS a second console, so your argument is ass backwards. Plus, what does the Wii being "hardly a step up from the Gamecube" have to do with anything?

6. It's possible... but unlikely. I don't know how closely you follow the charts on this site, but if you would kindly take a close look at the last few weeks in Japan, the PS3 is selling very close to 10k per week. If it followed that trend the entire year, we would only have just over 500k PS3s sold during that period.

7. Once again, if you would please refer to worldwide console sales for the past 3 weeks, you would be able to see that the Xbox360 has actually been outselling the PS3. You should cut down on the pipe.

9. Honestly, the first party games are looking pretty good, but Heavy Rain? Does anyone even have any solid info on what this game is going to be like? A few trailers... I mean, don't get yourself too excited.

10. It may not have had *that* many woman (I'm sure it had some... it has been very cheap in the last couple of years... that's got to be enticing to some woman looking in to getting into gaming), but it did have all of the repurchasers over the years. I'm pretty certain a large percentage of people had at least two PS2s in its lifetime (I did). Plus, the Madden crowd lol.

I do agree the PS3 is going to do well, but everyone on here saying that it will make it to even 75 million needs to lay off the smack. For real.