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Forums - Gaming - If Sony keeps the 10 year plan for the PS3 will it reach the 150 million?

superchunk on 07 August 2008

Based on chances of happening...

360 finishing 2nd >>>> wii getting 75% market share >>>>>>>>>> PS3 lasting 10yrs with 150m sold.



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DMeisterJ on 07 August 2008
Onimusha12 said:
slimeattack said:
RolStoppable says the Wii will get to 75% marketshare.

So one person making a claim (most likely in sarcasm) is your justification for the Wii fandom believing this as a whole when in contrast you have 40 some people throughout at least two threads decreeing their support for this absurd 10 year plan as the PS3's White Horse? I wonder which stands as a more sound litmus of the two communities?

Tell me, If I quote everything Crazyman, HUS or Leo-J said could I pin that on the whole Sony community too?

The hypocrisy is strong in those two statements.

You've done that on numerous occasions. 

If I have time, I'll flip through your post history, but you know you've done that.



Arkk on 07 August 2008
slimeattack said:
Arkk said:
Obliterator1700 said:
Arkk said:
Jo21 said:
TheSource said:

Do you guys work for viral marketers? Its going to be a cold day in hell when we don't have at least five of these threads a day.

On topic:

No.

Ten Reasons:

1) The ten year plan is nonsense. PS2 will still sell 1m units in 2011 because its peak was so high, thats year 11 from the 2000 Japan launch. The plan is theoretical. It worked even better than expected with PS2 because PS2 had the highest peak of any system ever (21m+ shipped in a year) until DS last year (30.3m shipped in a year).

2) Xbox 360 is more viable than Xbox ever was in all three regions worldwide.

3) Wii is trending faster than DS and DS is trending faster than PS2. In other words, regionally Wii sales>PS2 sales>PS3 sales

4) Blu Ray relevance is over rated, its not enough of a step up for most people to become the DVD of the future. I know 30 people in my college with HD TVs, 20 of them have Wiis, none of them have Blu Ray. I know thats just anecdotal, so here is better evidence: Japan and Europe have higher adoption rates of Blu Ray than USA, and Wii still outsells PS3 in those reasons. I see no reason to expect a change, as Wii is close to $400 in much of Europe vs. PS3 at $600 - both are overpriced.

5) Most big hits are now multiplatform, Wii, DS or PSP games.

6) PS2 sold over 7m in the USA in three years in the Americas, and over 4m in Japan in its peak. PS3 is going to have issues peaking at 2m in a year in Japan and over 5m in the USA in one year, let alone multiple years that it would need to top PS2.

7) Wii & Xbox 360 will always be cheaper than PS3, and if PS3 started to gain momentum (i.e. outselling the other two by a wide margin worldwide), one or both successors would be announced, and the PS3 tech advantage would dissappear overnight as would the sales momentum.

8) Sony can't aggressively cut prices right now because the world economy is in the shitter. By extension Sony is making less money than they would be otherwise and they lose money on PS3. Selling more PS3s is actually bad for Sony at the moment even though alot of the costs are recouped from software.

9) Higher development costs and slower launch sales mean that PS3 development is risky for developers. There are only so many games that can sell 1 million copies on a base of 15m, and with diminishing returns vs. last gen, the portables, PS2, PC, Wii and cellphones look like better investments.

10) Women greatly prefer Wii to traditional platforms. Even if you think think only sells to a fraction of the men PS2 does, women are very under-served in this industry, and catering to them is a way to achieve huge growth very quickly. Make no mistake, DS wouldn't be where it is without women, and Wii is following a similar trajectory. Among men, Xbox 360 hurts PS3 in the west since its cheaper, and Wii hurts PS3 because its more diversified and cheaper.

1. the ps2 didn't sold those 21+ the first year, neither the DS its 30+ actually after it third year+, the ps3 still have a chance go go the long way it may not be 150 million but closer the 75- 100 millions

2. yes it more competive but its loosing ground faster than anything and still now the xbox its pretty much nothing in japan, and soon will be outsold in europe.

3. and wii owners will not buy a ps3?, wii its hardly a step up over the gamecube, i bought wii first, but then all the games are play are still going HD to the ps3 so i bought one, how you do know people are not going to buy a second console to play ff13 or re5? look at GTA4 monsters sales.

4. DVD was nothing its first years either, blu ray won the war, it may have no serious impact in the ps3 sales but its already choosen as teh deco facto HD movie format.

what the wii had to do anything with movies? it doesn't even play DVDs, oh wait.. i get it, wii games actually look good on a 50' 1080p /sarcams.

5. multiplatform as ps3/xbox360 ff13 re5 gta4 are on it.

6. in japan 2 games.. final fantasy xii, final fantasy xiii versus, will make it close to that in the year of release, but i doubt in the US they will be able to do that, in europe easily.

7. even they are cheaper that doesn't mean they are going to stop selling ps3, even with shortages lower priced xbox360

ps3 been outselling it.

8. as right now... but that doesn't mean it can't reach a 299$ sweet spot price in the comming years, look what 100$ +mgs4 discount did to the US a month ago 400k in just weeks.

9. thats why they are focusing on first party. with games like heavy rain, GT5, team ico project, god of war 3 they have good line up for 2009-2010, and even so considering it growing they are getting many HD multiplatforms.

10. ps2 didn't have many women games actually nothing compared to the DS but the ps2 it close the 140 millions.

ps3 will do well, in the console market sony it years away to be outshined, they may not make 150 million ps3 in 10 years but the ps3 will do well enough to not be considered a failure like the dreamcast.

 

2. Xbox is actually gaining momentum in Japan, and is selling better in NA and Others this year. I don't see how it is losing ground faster.

3. I'm sure some Wii owners will buy a PS3, but you have to look at the demographic of the console. First and foremost, the Nintendo faithful. Some of them would rather be shot dead than seen playing a Sony Console. Secondly, the casuals. They may never EVER buy another console this gen because they are happy with the software on the Wii. In most cases, at least to the hardcore, the Wii IS a second console, so your argument is ass backwards. Plus, what does the Wii being "hardly a step up from the Gamecube" have to do with anything?

6. It's possible... but unlikely. I don't know how closely you follow the charts on this site, but if you would kindly take a close look at the last few weeks in Japan, the PS3 is selling very close to 10k per week. If it followed that trend the entire year, we would only have just over 500k PS3s sold during that period.

7. Once again, if you would please refer to worldwide console sales for the past 3 weeks, you would be able to see that the Xbox360 has actually been outselling the PS3. You should cut down on the pipe.

9. Honestly, the first party games are looking pretty good, but Heavy Rain? Does anyone even have any solid info on what this game is going to be like? A few trailers... I mean, don't get yourself too excited.

10. It may not have had *that* many woman (I'm sure it had some... it has been very cheap in the last couple of years... that's got to be enticing to some woman looking in to getting into gaming), but it did have all of the repurchasers over the years. I'm pretty certain a large percentage of people had at least two PS2s in its lifetime (I did). Plus, the Madden crowd lol.

I do agree the PS3 is going to do well, but everyone on here saying that it will make it to even 75 million needs to lay off the smack. For real.
Whats next 15million?

 

 

Yes. Lets say that the PS3 sells 18 million as of its two year launch anniversary, that would be saying it sold an average of 9 million per year. Now, lets say that the PS3 starts to sell 12.5 million per year (25 million over two years), over a 6 year period, the system would have sold 68 million consoles. This is extremely optimistic. So to say it would even sell 75 million is a stretch IMO.

 

Have you perhaps forgotten that in 2009 or in 2010 PS3 will reach the sweet price point of $299? Have you forgotten that the biggest exclusive (GT5) is yet to come? Have you forgotten that Sony is planning to focus on the casuals once the ps2 dies in 2010/2009? Have you forgotten that blu-ray will outsell dvd by 2011 or 2012 at the latest and for lots of non-gamers ps3=blu-ray so they will buy a ps3? The PS3 won't have any problems with getting to 75 million.

Have you forgotten that you are looking into a crystal ball?

You are saying all of these things as if they are fact, when at this point they are not.

 



Just kiss the tip.


Arkk on 07 August 2008

Jo21... you said

"

2. its still being outsold 2-1. and total is 4-1 the only way xbox360 to outsell ps3 its to get a dragon quest X as exclusive.

but the ps3 will get a HUGE lead when ff13 released.

3. for some reason i always get the demographic "point", never is relative, dude by time of the gamecube i owned everything from nintendo, nintendo super nintendo n64 gameboy color gamecube,

then High school came by, ps2 makes its entrance with the best games i have played, i am not going back soon though i did buy a wii.

6. those are normal week, holiday is comming up, they have ff13 (probably the biggest game of japan this generation unless dragon quest x is annouced) for 2009, there is going to be a huge boost in japan in 2009

7. ps3 is  on shortage, xbox360 on price cut, considering the ps3 have outsold it for 1.5 million this year 400k in japan i doubt they will catch up this year, also 80gb is alot better position than their 60gb xbox360 by alot.

9. its made by indigo prophecy group, you can assure its going to have a GREAT story line, but of course thats my opinion.

10. it have? care to find even 5? :P"

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

-The quote threads were just getting way too long and i still have a point to prove (at least to you... who by being ignorant does not understand what I am getting at).

-The Xbox 360 IS NOT being outsold worldwide by the PS3 2 - 1. Where do you see this? Please elaborate for me. If this is not what you mean, then you have to be more clear when you are explaining something.

-How is the demographic point irrelevant? Just because you decided to switch to a PS2 doesn't change that fact. In fact, i doesn't really have anything to do with it. If demographics were irrelevant, no one would ever talk about hitting these certain groups. Once again, stop being ignorant.

-Of course they are going to have better years ahead. FFXIII is coming out, just like you said. That is why i raised my forecast from under 10 million to 12.5 million for at least one or two years. This is still being optimistic... please believe.

-Whenever anything is not selling that well, it has to be a shortage right? Seriously, I have seen 360s, a (very) few Wiis, and MGS4 bundled PS3s out there. I can't be the only one! Am I missing something? And the 80GB PS3 is a better deal overall to people like us (the intermediate to hardcore gamer), but to a person in the store trying to decide on which is better, the 360 is going to look much more attractive at that price point.

-You are definitely allowed to have your opinion on whatever game you like. I am not going to argue that point.

-Do you seriously want me to find 5 people that have bought multiple PS2s? I bet you any money I can find 5 on VGchartz alone.

To finish, I am not trying to hate on you or anybody else who is disputing my posts. I just want you to see that what I am saying is not some sort of fanboy rant or an attack on your beloved machine. I own every current gen console/handheld and i love all of them. But we are looking at sales stats here and trying to make predictions, and some of the predictions made on this read are ludicrous. And that's the truth.

Booyakasha.

 



Just kiss the tip.


stranne on 07 August 2008

In a few years you will get a free X360 Arcade when you buy a box of corn flakes. I think that will have a negative effect on PS3 sales.



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Obliterator1700 on 07 August 2008
stranne said:
In a few years you will get a free X360 Arcade when you buy a box of corn flakes. I think that will have a negative effect on PS3 sales.
Lol...Now thats funny.

 

 



halogamer1989 on 07 August 2008

No id think so. However I think they will keep the PS3 around for maybe 15 years.



Gilgamesh on 07 August 2008

Jesus christ that was a lot to read, anyway for the people who don't believe in the 10 year plan I don't see why it wouldn't work. The PS1 and the PS2 wasn't big on the network(well the PS2) and they lasted 9 years and the PSN is getting bigger and better everyday and theres always going to new cool content on it. And I think that Home will be around for a long time as well, (once it FINALLY comes out).

 Also I believe that the Wii and the Xbox 360 will stick around in this generation a little longer then console's usually stick around (5-6 years), there selling really good and the video gaming industry is getting bigger every year.



Alasted on 07 August 2008
MrBubbles said:
its absolutely absurd...how can the wii get 75% when the 360 will get 80%

No, it's perfectly reasonable.

The 360 will have 80% marketshare, while the Wii and PS3 will each have 75% marketshare.  The remaining 35% will be held in reserve for any unforseen competitors.



Obliterator1700 on 07 August 2008
Alasted said:
MrBubbles said:
its absolutely absurd...how can the wii get 75% when the 360 will get 80%

No, it's perfectly reasonable.

The 360 will have 80% marketshare, while the Wii and PS3 will each have 75% marketshare.  The remaining 35% will be held in reserve for any unforseen competitors.

The rest is reserved for the ps2...