So in 10 years, we will be where we are today with Sony's media. In 10 years, a disk will probably hold a terabyte or two. Physical media will always be ahead of downloads when it comes to space.

The only thing I can see where media becomes obsolete, is when we get to a point where you never have the game. You buy the X-box 5, or the PS 6, and you instantly have every game ever made for it, for a monthly fee. the games themselves will sit on a server somewhere, and your console is just a window into that server. Kind of like remote play. The only thing that gets downloaded to your console, is the audio and visuals of the game you are playing, while you play it.

When that day comes (and it will someday), then media is dead. While there is still the need to deliver large amounts of code to consumer, physical media will live on.

I used to hate the idea of digital distribution - but am slowly coming around to it.

Its mainly because of library size, and the sheer number of titles coming:

Music: literally haven't bought a CD for YEARS. Digital all the way. I'm even getting sick of my CDs hanging around (clutter = bad)

Movies: I still buy DVDs, but primarily really CHEAP titles that I have some emotional attachment to (i.e. $5 horror movies). I don't even rent movies anymore - streaming over the internet will do me, and means I can watch anything, at anytime - without having to leave the house. Its like my library has grown by 1000x times.

Games: WiiWare has really changed by spending habits. I now buy less physical discs (mainly the "smash hits" such as Brawl), but am spending more of my time using online content/channels - and this on the Wii, which has easily the weakest online service (and no offline storage :<).

One of the big reasons for this, is I have generally run out of room in my house for physical media (discs/CDs/games). The other is Steam - I'd much rather pay a fraction of the full retail price for something now, and just have digital access to it. Its just too easy.

...

People are assuming that games HAVE TO be large. This is just wrong. Look at the VC titles. Look at XBLA. Look at WiiWare.

The next generation of consoles will be all about online content delivery - and it might even happen this generation. I'd be quite happy to get my hands on a "drive-less" 360 or PS3.

As for piracy - its much harder to pirate digitally distributed software than it is to pirate physical media. Much, much, MUCH harder. Its probably the "real" push behind digital distribution.

Digital distribution is the future.  It will start to be a reality in the next generation, and you may see diskless consoles 2 generations from now.  That's 15 - 20 years from now.  So why is MS talking about it now.  Is it to divert attention from their pathetic attempt to prop up hd dvd?

I disagree. Try and pirate a 200 Gig game, vs a 6 Gig DL.

Yes, if HD-DVD had won, there is no way in hell MS would be pushing digital downloads.

And Netflix would of been on the PS3??

50GB BR-DL vs. 1 TB Harddrive to hold as much media as you can imagine?

OT: I'm not too keen on digital downloads, as I like collecting/borrowing/trading games. Not to mention, I love to see boxart :p

Nope, currently, Netflix only works on Microsoft's OS's, because they are the only ones with accredited players. It's a copy write thing (why DL does not work on a Mac yet).

My guess is Netflix would be on the 360, and Microsoft would be touting it as a niche market application, and not much else.

What difference does it make is a disk will hold a terabyte in 10 years? Are games or movies going to need that much space then? The simple answer is a resounding NO. It doesn't matter. PC hard drives have been in the hundreds of gigabytes for quite some time now, are PC games that much bigger than console games that have had to fit in DVD? Nope.

Now, imagine having a gigabit internet connection, which in 10 years time is not far fetched. That's a gigabyte of content rouhgly every 11 seconds (assuming a single parity bit, don't know if that would be the case), or 5.4 gigabytes every minute. More than a single layer DVD in a minute. 10 minutes for a dual-layer Blu-Ray disc. Think about that and tell me it's not going to change the whole game.

Also, a point I forgot from my earlier post is the bigger picture: as content delivery starts to shift to the internet, and it's already begun, then the traditional brick-and-mortar stores are the ones taking the hit. Think about how many music stores selling CD's there are in your city now vs. 10 years ago, the same is going to happen with games and movies. Even if you would like to have physical copies, there won't be as many outlets selling them in 10 years, unless the market itself grows so much it offsets the shift to digital distribution.

I am not sure what your point is with this statement, but to reply...

if every game was 50Gig, that means your 1 TB drive would be filled up with 20 games. I can imagine a lot more then that ;)