| Sqrl said:
The only problem with what you're saying is that we've already gone through this cycle and internet costs are not through the roof like you suggest they would be. It certainly does costs quite a bit for them to upgrade their network but that cost is not part of the overhead of running the network it's simply a one-time expense. Normal maintenance costs are not increased by switching to an all fiber network, from what I understand maintenance will actually be cheaper if we were using a fiber to the curb system. But conceptually what you're saying is really just making a mountain out of a molehill for two reasons. First, we aren't going to see an overnight switch to DD, there is going to be at least one generation of consoles that offer both PD and DD for their main library before DD becomes the only method(if it ever does). Supply and demand will handle the problem of expanding the capabilities as companies compete for profit. You did mention S&D but you only focused on the short term effects and ignored the developmental effects. Second, DD for games is not going to be a major tax on the current internet operations to begin with. Looking at where the 360 is now if we assumed they had switched over to all DD this generation we are talking about something like 7 games for the average consumer and average length of console ownership is at 65.26 weeks as of the week ending July 26th. If we assume each of those games is a full 10GB (they aren't) we are looking at the average 360 owner using 1.8 kBps multiplied across the entire user base we are only talking about 35 gBps dedicated to servicing all 20 million users. In the meantime they've generated about $3.2 Billion in additional profit (it was already part of revenue) by not having to produce the physical games to begin with. That 35 gBps is split across the entire global internet BTW, a mere drop in the bucket even during peak times. Even so the demand for better internet may very well drive the prices up temporarily as telecoms upgrade their networks and need the extra cash to afford it, but as they reach new levels of capability supply/demand/competition will drive the prices back down and ultimately the prices we pay now will provide faster and better service. This cycle has been in effect for almost 2 decades now and I really don't see a reason to think we are all of a sudden going to hit a brick wall. With that said you're absolutely right that internet speeds cannot and will not double at the rates of processors but neither will the size of the games and movies. Services like Steam, DTVs VOD, D2D, and a ton of other companies like it are hardly the first generation of DD services. They are however the first generation of HD content DD, and they will lay the ground work needed to move forward the same way the 2nd generation will. The driving force behind all of this is money and companies understand that the sooner they get to market the larger their piece of the final pie will be, that alone is a massive incentive.
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Just a thought: The United States has ~4,000,000 miles of paved roads. Who's going to pay for a few million miles of fiber-optic cable?
Not trying to be a fanboy. Of course, it's hard when you own the best console eve... dang it
