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Forums - Gaming - No New consoles for at least another 4 or 5 years

Microsoft- End of 2011
Sony-Mid 2012
Nintendo- End of 2012
Those are my predictions.



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A new XBox with Bluray(finally) released early is good for MS?
Developers will have to choose between making Bluray games for a system with 60million install base(PS3) or BD games for new system with a 0 install base.

Of course when you're down 50 million units, you can't exactly resort to the old ways of bribing people. That only works when you're ahead by 5 million.



PSN: EDguila

PS3 library:  Motorstorm, Assasin's Creed, Orange Box, Uncharted:DF, Metal Gear Solid 4, Resistance:FOM, Rachet & Clank Future:ToD,

Near future: Folklore, SOCOM Confrontation, BioShock, Little Big Planet, Resistance 2.

New consoles will hit the retail shelves by 2012 for all 3. MS and Sony will probably be 1st/2nd, not in any particular order, with Nintendo up to 1yr at most after them since they will be able to enjoy the affects of being #1 and having a system that will actually be a viable platform to sell games on after the next gen starts.

360 and PS3 are NOT going to last as long as the Wii since they will have at best 1/2 the market base combined. They will be shut down similar to the Gamecube.



I think we've hit (or have gotten close to hitting) a plateau in development costs associated with creating a game because the detail of 3D models and the texture effects used on these models is very similar to those that are used in CGI movies ... This means that the ammount of money saved by producing a game for one of the HD consoles rather that for more cutting edge hardware is pretty minimal in the grand scheme of things.

One thing I'm expecting in the near future (say late 2010), as 3D rasterization hardware hits a point where further progress in this direction is meaningless, is publishers and developers forcus more on a unified art-style in order to create large content libraries to control (and eventually lower) development costs.



shio said:
Dno said:
but sales of the wii makes PC games look bad......

PC games revenue totally crushes Wii PS3 and 360. That's a fact.

 

Damn that World of Warcraft!

 



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shio said:
Dno said:
but sales of the wii makes PC games look bad......

PC games revenue totally crushes Wii PS3 and 360. That's a fact.

 

 

Link/Financial charts or its not a fact.  Profits may be greater because there's no need to port to a different architecture, but revenue =/= profit.



I actually predict Nintendo and Microsoft releasing new consoles late 2011. Microsoft will be trying to be the first out of the gate again. Nintendo will release in 2011 because they will keep the Wii as a viable platform hopefully due to lots of 3rd party support. I think Sony will be forced to release their console early 2012 because of the PS3 will start to see a major sales drop because of the Wii, Wii2 and Xbox720.



Dno said:
but sales of the wii makes PC games look bad......

Count down to ssj12's "PC pwns all!"   10.....9......8.....7....



Tag: Hawk - Reluctant Dark Messiah (provided by fkusumot)

EdGuila said:
A new XBox with Bluray(finally) released early is good for MS?
Developers will have to choose between making Bluray games for a system with 60million install base(PS3) or BD games for new system with a 0 install base.

Of course when you're down 50 million units, you can't exactly resort to the old ways of bribing people. That only works when you're ahead by 5 million.

This makes no sense.

Were devs having a hard time choosing between making new games on the PS2 that has 120m+ vs the 360 in 2005/6? No, when a new gen starts, it starts. New bigger games are pushed to the new machines.

Also, at the time a new Xbox is release, PS4 will either be out or heavily talked about, just like the PS3 when 360 released. Sony is not going to let MS have too much of a head start this time.

 



Hawk said:
Dno said:
but sales of the wii makes PC games look bad......

Count down to ssj12's "PC pwns all!" 10.....9......8.....7....

 

He's "banned" for a while yet so someone else will have to do it.