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Forums - Sales - Blu-Ray Growth Vs. VOD Growth

Someone in a thread about Sony's download service claimed that VOD has "already beaten" Blu-Ray, and that couldn't be further from the truth.  Here is some actual pertinent information which will show that Blu-Ray is on track to surpass VOD (which I believe includes the pay-per-view market, which is more a rental service than true digital distribution) by next year.

Entertainment software set to grow 17% by 2010

GfK: Videogames, Blu-ray will drive lift

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6571170.html

Growth for this year and the next several years will be almost exclusively from the games sector, with game software for all console, PC and handheld platforms expanding to $33.3 billion this year, up 22% from 2007. Games growth will be about 18% in 2009 and 12% in 2010, according to the report.

Home video, meanwhile, will remain virtually flat at either side of $34 billion worldwide through 2010, with growth from the fledgling Blu-ray Disc format compensating for declines in the aging standard DVD.

Blu-ray sales will more than quadruple this year, to $1.5 billion worldwide, according to GfK, then grow 184% in 2009 to $4.1 billion and another 94%, to hit $8 billion in 2010.

 

Blu-ray has outpaced DVD adoption

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6572676.html

JUNE 23 | The adoption rate of Blu-ray Disc drives has outpaced that of standard-definition DVD players almost a decade ago on both sides of the Atlantic because of gamers buying Sony's PlayStation 3 consoles, which include the high-definition disc drives, according to separate estimates.

As of the end of this year, Blu-ray's third on the market, Western European consumers will have acquired Blu-ray drives at more than six times the rate buyers had bought standard disc players by the end of 1999, U.K.-based Futuresource Consulting said last week. In the U.S., customers are acquiring Blu-ray drives at three times the rate they bought DVD players nine years ago, said Michael Youn, Lionsgate’s VP of strategic planning and business development, at a Las Vegas conference yesterday

 

Lionsgate reports record first quarter

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3i1bbfaf7a505146058e35fc2777bd16e1

Studios and retailers alike are hoping that a higher consumer penetration of Blu-ray players will help reverse a drop in home entertainment spending last year. U.S. customers spent $23.4 billion buying or renting DVDs in 2007, down from $24.1 billion in 2006, according to trade group the Digital Entertainment Group. Studios such as Lionsgate are forecasting about $1 billion in Blu-ray sales this year.

“Longer term, as player prices continue to fall, title availability grows and awareness increases, Blu-ray Disc players will become the product of choice, given the fact that they also play DVD and CD media,” said Jim Bottoms, managing director of corporate development at Futuresource, which was formerly known as Understanding & Solutions. “There will come a time when the branded suppliers focus on this higher capacity drive, mirroring the trend we saw with DVD players replacing CD decks.”

...............................

Lionsgate also is optimistic about the future of home entertainment, with Blu-ray sales more than making up for any slowdown in DVD sales and growing from a projected $1 billion this year to more than $10 billion in 2013, according to company analyst Michael Youn, vp strategic planning and business development.

Acknowledging media reports of a sluggish home entertainment sector that ultimately will consist mostly of digital downloads, Youn noted a highly publicized Forrester Research report from 2003 that predicted DVD sales would drop 9% by 2008 while VOD spending would increase more than 300% to $4.2 billion.

"They were wrong," Youn quipped, noting that DVD sales actually rose 9% over the past five years while VOD spending increased just 30% to $1.3 billion.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Hope that clears up some of the misinformation out there.  Please feel free to add anything, but please, if you are going to make bold claims, have some data to back it up.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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Your two articles are counting all PS3 players as used blu-ray drives. Don't you see the spin with that?


Also they are using revenue. Is it any surprise Blu-ray revenue has like quadrupled when PS3 sales have rapidly gone up?

You are spreading misinformation... not clearing it up.

The point Alpha was making too was that when you take into account the revenue differences that DVD sales were actually outpacing Blu-ray sales.

Unlike DVD vs VHS.  Where VHS sales were declining.



You are right about them counting PS3's in the video player total which skews it, but the other article is talking about disc sales exclusively.

The majority of PS3 players appear to be utilizing their Blu-Ray functionality as well:

Buried under predictions that 2012 will bring dominance for Blu-ray over DVD and breaking news that the PS3 just may have had a hand in winning the format war the Entertainment Merchant's Association 2008 Annual Report on the Home Entertainment Industry holds survey results showing 87% of PS3 owners reported they watch Blu-ray movies on their console. That's a stark contrast to last year's NPD survey indicating 60% of owners didn't even know it played them. We don't know what's behind the jump, be it better marketing/consumer education, or something wrong with how one the surveys were conducted. You can mull that one over during the fast money round while also peeping results that say 22% of HDTV owners think they're watching HD programming, but in fact are not -- not like we haven't heard that before.

http://www.engadget.com/2008/07/04/8...s-survey-says/



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

akuma587 said:

You are right about them counting PS3's in the video player total which skews it, but the other article is talking about disc sales exclusively.

The majority of PS3 players appear to be utilizing their Blu-Ray functionality as well:

Buried under predictions that 2012 will bring dominance for Blu-ray over DVD and breaking news that the PS3 just may have had a hand in winning the format war the Entertainment Merchant's Association 2008 Annual Report on the Home Entertainment Industry holds survey results showing 87% of PS3 owners reported they watch Blu-ray movies on their console. That's a stark contrast to last year's NPD survey indicating 60% of owners didn't even know it played them. We don't know what's behind the jump, be it better marketing/consumer education, or something wrong with how one the surveys were conducted. You can mull that one over during the fast money round while also peeping results that say 22% of HDTV owners think they're watching HD programming, but in fact are not -- not like we haven't heard that before.

http://www.engadget.com/2008/07/04/8...s-survey-says/

Likely the difference between those two surveys is one asked "Did you ever watch Blu-ray in your PS3."

VS

"Did you watch Blu-rays on your console at least once a month."

I mean... in many cases the PS2 has come with a movie, or if you bought one you got free movies.

If you can provide the actual survey it's fine... but the Blu-ray Assosiation magazine has been used for excessive spin before.



Also your second artcle deals in revenue again. Where Alpha DK is talking about total viewership.


MANY VOD services are free.  Based on your way of judging it... a free service could never be more popular then a pay service.



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In that last article, I think they are only accounting for Lionsgate VOD and DVD numbers. I seriously doubt that the total VOD market only increased $1.3 billion in five years. I think they only mean the internet VOD market, which is still fairly small.



Kasz216 said:

Your two articles are counting all PS3 players as used blu-ray drives. Don't you see the spin with that?


Also they are using revenue. Is it any surprise Blu-ray revenue has like quadrupled when PS3 sales have rapidly gone up?

You are spreading misinformation... not clearing it up.

The point Alpha was making too was that when you take into account the revenue differences that DVD sales were actually outpacing Blu-ray sales.

Unlike DVD vs VHS.  Where VHS sales were declining.

So, plz, explain it to me again because I failed to see where it was shown that DVD sales where
 rising as opposed to VHS sales (if I follow you)

I didn't get the point indeed and I just want to understand.

 



Time to Work !

libellule said:
Kasz216 said:

Your two articles are counting all PS3 players as used blu-ray drives. Don't you see the spin with that?


Also they are using revenue. Is it any surprise Blu-ray revenue has like quadrupled when PS3 sales have rapidly gone up?

You are spreading misinformation... not clearing it up.

The point Alpha was making too was that when you take into account the revenue differences that DVD sales were actually outpacing Blu-ray sales.

Unlike DVD vs VHS. Where VHS sales were declining.

So, plz, explain it to me again because I failed to see where it was shown that DVD sales where
rising as opposed to VHS sales (if I follow you)

I didn't get the point indeed and I just want to understand.

 

DVD vs VHS or DVD vs Blu-ray?  Cause the later is easier to show, while the former involves digging up like 10 year old news articles.

 



This is what I found about the NPD survey:

NPD Methodology
The report is based on online survey responses from 6,260 members of NPD's online consumer panel. These respondents, compromised of males and females ages 6 to 44, are qualified owners of at least one next generation system (PS3, PSP, Wii, NDS, Xbox 360). In addition, non-owners were captured in order to further probe on next generation system purchase intent and other areas. Fieldwork was conducted from April 4-10, 2007.

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3161833

I haven't found anything that reveals the details about the other one yet



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

Since this is a veiled attack on my arguments, how about I include them here?

I was saying:
1) BR growth in unit sales is surpassed by DVD growth. This is to show that it's a natural growth in the industry, NOT BR taking over for DVD. The links are in the other thread, you can look there for them.
2) VOD is growing FASTER than either, and more people ACTUALLY use VoD services than use BR. Lillebule was saying that BR was more mainstream; I was simply correcting that (false) assumption. I never said BR would die; I said it was less mainstream, and would likely end up like UMD; still supported, but NOT the driving force behind the industry.

Your first article talks about declines in the DVD industry WHICH ARE NOT HAPPENING.

Your second article talks about BR adoption compared to DVD adoption, which I never brought up. I just said VoD adoption was higher than either (which is true)

Your third article doesn't account for any ad-supported or subscription-based VoD services, completely eliminating the most popular services.

How about, instead of cherry-picking, you look at the industry as a whole, like I did?

Edit: I guess i should rephrase: I used the entire industry for the one I was calling 'smaller', and a subset for the one I was calling 'larger'.  It helps their argument, and hurts mine, but still mine comes out on top, so...



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