Actually, I think there will be tests between then and now. DQ:S, which comes out soon (this week? next?), will be the first example.

And I think you're going a little overboard here, Rocket. They aren't "thumbing their nose" at convential games... unless not buying them is somehow rude or arrogant.

Cooking Mama 2 will certainly sell a great deal of copies automatically, but I believe you're wrong about Cooking Mama 14. Right now, Cooking Mama (and cake mania, I guess) is really all there is right now in terms of cooking games, so of course it wins by default. But what happens when someone comes out with another cooking game that's better? Clever minds CAN make these games better, Rocket. In fact, I think it's unexpectedly myopic of you to think that cleverness can only be applied by making games more graphically intense and complex. I expect more from you, I like your posts!

Simple point -- the second someone DOES put their top development team on a Cooking Mama - style game, then it will likely beat out the competitors. Right now, there ARE no competitors, so that's hard to see, but obviously, these games benefit from quality control too.  

Until someone makes a Tetris to end all Tetrises, there is always room for clever people to profit off simpler games. Right now, it seems like every casual game sells a truckload simply because there are so few, and anyone who wants to delve in to this market pretty much has to buy what they're offered, regardless. Soon, quality will be an issue, and then you can't just slap these things together anymore.

Gundam Masou is by far the best sold PS3 game so far for Japan, so IMO the list does mean something. However 1 interesting title will not sell a console unless it's a Final Fantasy, Wii Sports or Super Mario game combined with positive reviews, especially if the console is expensive. The more interesting titles appear, the easier it's to justify opening your wallet.

Likewise Blue Dragon was also on their list and did wonders for the XBox 360, weekly hardware sales have ever since its release been multiplied as compared to how dire the situation was before (still pretty hopeless though).

I can't fellow anymore...Does this game just sold 7.000 because there were only 7.000 copies of the game?

That is from Gametrailers!

I should have phrased it differently. When I say "top dev team", I mean the guys who deliver the engines, top-shelf graphics, and sound for games like FF, MGS, LO, etc.

It's not a knock on Japanese tastes at all, I don't really care what games they are playing. But as long as there is a demand for the next blockbuster game somewhere, those teams will have work. And right now, it's quickly becoming evident that to remain profitable, those teams will have to shift to completely Western-centric games. The Japanese just don't seem interested in games they snatched up by the millions five to ten years ago.

A great idea is something that is always valued (otherwise, we'd never have any more Tetrises, would we?) and the Japanese appreciate good gaming, as do we all. But their tastes are straying so far from the rest of the world that I don't see huge publishers being able to drop $10m into a game that will only sell there while the rest of the world scratches its head over why the game is fun.

cooking mama is a terrible example considering it sells way better in europe and america than it does in Japan. Cooking Mama on Wii sold a whopping 33k while the one on DS sold 60k. In America the Wii version has sold 117k and is still selling 5k a week while it is dead in Japan. Cooking Mama was on the European sales charts for quite a while (doesn't show numbers, but it gives you an idea). The DS version has sold 338k in America.

Nice job.

Given Namco's claim that an average PS3 game requires 500,000 copies sold to break even, doing well for a PS3 game, as Gundam did, or doing extremely well for a 360 game, as Blue Dragon did, simply are not enough. Both games almost certainly lost a good deal of money.

These things aren't completely relative. Sure, systems with different sized user bases can expect their games to sell at relatively different clips, but no system has a relative relationship with money. You either make money, or you don't. Calling Gundam Mosou a relative success in Japan for the PS3 is still a failure, because the real goal is to earn money.

The only games, thus far, that have made any real money on the PS3 are world release ones, especially Resistance and Motorstorm. Japanese centric and Japan-only games are basically a complete bomb thus far. 

Then pick any myriad of popular sim/puzzle games that sell in Japan and don't sell at all in NA or the EU. While Cooking Mama may have been a poor choice, the point is still valid.

 didnt they only ship 7000 copies.....

Huh? No, pre ordered versions from retailers 20.000, 7.000 sold the first day. Don't know where gametrailers got that from

 Maybe Lair..For sure Haze, Heavenly Sword,
Nintendo just live with Miyamoto What if Miyamoto dies?

X360 and PS3 just have so many developpers with so many new games.

Oh a new console from Nintendo what kind of games it will have?  Oh a new Zelda, Metroid, 30 kind mario games, star fox,   Oh I am surprised;....Sigh..