makingmusic476 said: David Vaughn, insider from AVS, says last weeks numbers were 76:24 in favor of Blu-Ray. He's been correct the last 4 weeks, so I'll take his word for it. Pirates was the #1 title, with Superbad a distant second. That's greater than 3:1 for Blu. Very good numbers. This current week is the best chance HD DVD has of winning a week all year. The major releases are HP 1-5 on both formats, and the Bourne Ultimatum on HD DVD. Under normal conditions, Blu-Ray would be able to maintain it's lead, as HP would most likely sell 1.65:1 in favor of Blu-Ray, like Ocean's 13 and the Departed (or possibly even better, as in 2:1 like 300). The added sales of HP on Blu-Ray would then counteract the sales of BU. However, this week Best Buy is having a buy one get one free on HD DVD films INCLUDING the Bourne Ultimatum, effectively doubling the sales of the film at Best Buy, the largest seller of HDM in the country. For every copy of Bourne sold, customers will get to pick another HD DVD for free. If that doesn't put HD DVD on top... A wildcard this week is the release of the Blu-Ray exclusive High School Musical 2. The series is insanely popular, and should sell VERY well on DVD. However, will parents fork over the extra to get their teenage daughters HM2 in HD? That remains to be seen, so I excluded it from my above forecast.

I still say these weeks won't count, no matter who comes out on top. Sales are still niche. When we get the next wave of HDTV owners, then we will see. Getting the lead of a few hundred thousand a week isn't even something for game systems to brag about. How many weeks does it take for a single major DVD release to get that low? 

LordTheNightKnight said: makingmusic476 said: David Vaughn, insider from AVS, says last weeks numbers were 76:24 in favor of Blu-Ray. He's been correct the last 4 weeks, so I'll take his word for it. Pirates was the #1 title, with Superbad a distant second. That's greater than 3:1 for Blu. Very good numbers. This current week is the best chance HD DVD has of winning a week all year. The major releases are HP 1-5 on both formats, and the Bourne Ultimatum on HD DVD. Under normal conditions, Blu-Ray would be able to maintain it's lead, as HP would most likely sell 1.65:1 in favor of Blu-Ray, like Ocean's 13 and the Departed (or possibly even better, as in 2:1 like 300). The added sales of HP on Blu-Ray would then counteract the sales of BU. However, this week Best Buy is having a buy one get one free on HD DVD films INCLUDING the Bourne Ultimatum, effectively doubling the sales of the film at Best Buy, the largest seller of HDM in the country. For every copy of Bourne sold, customers will get to pick another HD DVD for free. If that doesn't put HD DVD on top... A wildcard this week is the release of the Blu-Ray exclusive High School Musical 2. The series is insanely popular, and should sell VERY well on DVD. However, will parents fork over the extra to get their teenage daughters HM2 in HD? That remains to be seen, so I excluded it from my above forecast. I still say these weeks won't count, no matter who comes out on top. Sales are still niche. When we get the next wave of HDTV owners, then we will see. Getting the lead of a few hundred thousand a week isn't even something for game systems to brag about. How many weeks does it take for a single major DVD release to get that low?

They matter greatly if Warner is thinking about choosing one side or the other to nip this whole war in the bud, spurring adoption faster down the road.

Warner has favored HD DVD in the past. Shortly after Paramount went HD DVD exclusive, a Warner exec made the comment "we will be watching Toshiba's hardware sale in the 4th quarter." They later made comments about the public not choosing a side, and that they may be forced to. Then there were the recent articles concerning both sides heavily courting Warner. Warner has the power to declare a winner right now, and they know this. The only question is, which side will lead to the coveted end to the format war?

This is the way I think Warner was looking at things back at the end of Q3, when they made the comment I mentioned above. Since they've favored HD DVD in the past, they were hoping that Toshiba's standalone sales would propel the format back into the lead, so they could go HD. They found out about the sales Toshiba was planning to have back in August at the same time Paramount did, and I'm sure they recieved an offer to go exclusive just like Paramount. However, they weren't so sure that Toshiba's sales would actually shift the numbers in HD DVD's favor, so they decided to wait it out instead of dropping Blu then and there.

Now, if Toshiba sold enough hardware to catch up to Blu-Ray, then the choice would be obvious. Warner would go exclusive Red, as it would only build on the momentum and HD DVD would win the war pretty quickly. However, if Toshiba's sales didn't change the status qou, then they would go Blu, because then Blu-Ray would have 70% of studio support exclusively, and the choice between formats for consumers would be obvious, propelling Blu-Ray to dominance in just a short while, and the 2:1 sales ratios would keep growing in favor of Blu, to 3:1, then 4:1, etc.

Either way, Warner wants this stuff to end, and from all the rumors, insiders, statements from big name execs, including those from Warner themselves, it's obvious they are going to go exclusive one way or another in early '08.

makingmusic476 said: LordTheNightKnight said: makingmusic476 said: David Vaughn, insider from AVS, says last weeks numbers were 76:24 in favor of Blu-Ray. He's been correct the last 4 weeks, so I'll take his word for it. Pirates was the #1 title, with Superbad a distant second. That's greater than 3:1 for Blu. Very good numbers. This current week is the best chance HD DVD has of winning a week all year. The major releases are HP 1-5 on both formats, and the Bourne Ultimatum on HD DVD. Under normal conditions, Blu-Ray would be able to maintain it's lead, as HP would most likely sell 1.65:1 in favor of Blu-Ray, like Ocean's 13 and the Departed (or possibly even better, as in 2:1 like 300). The added sales of HP on Blu-Ray would then counteract the sales of BU. However, this week Best Buy is having a buy one get one free on HD DVD films INCLUDING the Bourne Ultimatum, effectively doubling the sales of the film at Best Buy, the largest seller of HDM in the country. For every copy of Bourne sold, customers will get to pick another HD DVD for free. If that doesn't put HD DVD on top... A wildcard this week is the release of the Blu-Ray exclusive High School Musical 2. The series is insanely popular, and should sell VERY well on DVD. However, will parents fork over the extra to get their teenage daughters HM2 in HD? That remains to be seen, so I excluded it from my above forecast. I still say these weeks won't count, no matter who comes out on top. Sales are still niche. When we get the next wave of HDTV owners, then we will see. Getting the lead of a few hundred thousand a week isn't even something for game systems to brag about. How many weeks does it take for a single major DVD release to get that low? They matter greatly if Warner is thinking about choosing one side or the other to nip this whole war in the bud, spurring adoption faster down the road. Warner has favored HD DVD in the past. Shortly after Paramount went HD DVD exclusive, a Warner exec made the comment "we will be watching Toshiba's hardware sale in the 4th quarter." They later made comments about the public not choosing a side, and that they may be forced to. Then there were the recent articles concerning both sides heavily courting Warner. Warner has the power to declare a winner right now, and they know this. The only question is, which side will lead to the coveted end to the format war? This is the way I think Warner was looking at things back at the end of Q3, when they made the comment I mentioned above. Since they've favored HD DVD in the past, they were hoping that Toshiba's standalone sales would propel the format back into the lead, so they could go HD. They found out about the sales Toshiba was planning to have back in August at the same time Paramount did, and I'm sure they recieved an offer to go exclusive just like Paramount. However, they weren't so sure that Toshiba's sales would actually shift the numbers in HD DVD's favor, so they decided to wait it out instead of dropping Blu then and there. Now, if Toshiba sold enough hardware to catch up to Blu-Ray, then the choice would be obvious. Warner would go exclusive Red, as it would only build on the momentum and HD DVD would win the war pretty quickly. However, if Toshiba's sales didn't change the status qou, then they would go Blu, because then Blu-Ray would have 70% of studio support exclusively, and the choice between formats for consumers would be obvious, propelling Blu-Ray to dominance in just a short while, and the 2:1 sales ratios would keep growing in favor of Blu, to 3:1, then 4:1, etc. Either way, Warner wants this stuff to end, and from all the rumors, insiders, statements from big name execs, including those from Warner themselves, it's obvious they are going to go exclusive one way or another in early '08.

There were no comments like that from the Warner executives, only comments that were twisted to be such. It's not obvious that it will happen.

It might happen, but there is not real evidence right now for it, only assumed evidence. 

Here's a good reason why it's more likely they won't.

Warner Bros.: We have no plans to support Blu-ray exclusively

One again Warner Bros. has to comment on rumors or now on what looks like wishful thinking by Blu-ray fans.

Last week rumors started to flurish about Warner Bros. wanting to drop support of HD DVD and only release their movies in HD on Blu-ray beginning sometime next year.

Don Lindich writes on his blog that he got in touch with Jim Noonan, Warner Bros. Senior Vice President and General Manager, for clarification.

Once again Warner responded "We have made no decision to change our present policy which is to produce in both HD DVD and Blu-ray."

Recent figures showed that Warner's neutral standpoint in the HD format war had earned them a 36% market share of all HD discs sold (HD DVD and Blu-ray.) By far the biggest numbers by any HD studio.

Perhaps neutral IS the correct way to go.

 

Of course that could change as HDM go mainstream, but as it is, Warner has better reasons to stay than to go exclusive, even if offered a deal.

Now maybe the same could have been said about Paramount/Dreamworks, but their sales didn't seem to be as high as Warner's anway, so they didn't lose much by dropping blu-ray.

Geez, so close.

Third installment of Pirates moves 160k Blu-ray discs

Posted Dec 13th 2007 9:12AM by Ben Drawbaugh
Filed under: Blu-ray, HD DVD

The Nielsen VideoScan numbers don't come out 'till tomorrow, but Video Business is reporting that the latest installment of the Pirates franchise has sold 160k copies in its first week. This puts it right behind 300 as the number one selling HD title -- Paramount claimed to have sold 190k copies of Transformers, but this was debunked by industry analysts. This will no doubt ensure a great week for the blu camp, but time will tell if it has the legs of Transformers or 300. While this is certainly good for blu, we can't wait till next week to see how the latest Harry Potter title does since it's available for both formats.

 

1. This is likely due to 300 being a crowd pleaser, despite lower box office, and it being more suited to HD than the Pirates movies, despite the latters' special effects.

 

2. Even if Transformers didn't sell 190k, it did sell better than detractors claim, so 115k minimum, still the best HD-DVD opening. This is alo due to it being a crowd pleaser, despite some haters. Compare that to Spiderman 3, and Shrek 3, and of course Pirates 3, which disappointed a lot of fans.

3. HP 5 had sort of a mized reaction, but who knows? It might actually help to grow the market.

4. BTW, if the Simpsons has exclusive HD content, it would be the first blu-ray film I want. I mentioned before that the only othe HD films I want are Casino and Goodfellas.

LordTheNightKnight said: makingmusic476 said: LordTheNightKnight said: makingmusic476 said: David Vaughn, insider from AVS, says last weeks numbers were 76:24 in favor of Blu-Ray. He's been correct the last 4 weeks, so I'll take his word for it. Pirates was the #1 title, with Superbad a distant second. That's greater than 3:1 for Blu. Very good numbers. This current week is the best chance HD DVD has of winning a week all year. The major releases are HP 1-5 on both formats, and the Bourne Ultimatum on HD DVD. Under normal conditions, Blu-Ray would be able to maintain it's lead, as HP would most likely sell 1.65:1 in favor of Blu-Ray, like Ocean's 13 and the Departed (or possibly even better, as in 2:1 like 300). The added sales of HP on Blu-Ray would then counteract the sales of BU. However, this week Best Buy is having a buy one get one free on HD DVD films INCLUDING the Bourne Ultimatum, effectively doubling the sales of the film at Best Buy, the largest seller of HDM in the country. For every copy of Bourne sold, customers will get to pick another HD DVD for free. If that doesn't put HD DVD on top... A wildcard this week is the release of the Blu-Ray exclusive High School Musical 2. The series is insanely popular, and should sell VERY well on DVD. However, will parents fork over the extra to get their teenage daughters HM2 in HD? That remains to be seen, so I excluded it from my above forecast. I still say these weeks won't count, no matter who comes out on top. Sales are still niche. When we get the next wave of HDTV owners, then we will see. Getting the lead of a few hundred thousand a week isn't even something for game systems to brag about. How many weeks does it take for a single major DVD release to get that low? They matter greatly if Warner is thinking about choosing one side or the other to nip this whole war in the bud, spurring adoption faster down the road. Warner has favored HD DVD in the past. Shortly after Paramount went HD DVD exclusive, a Warner exec made the comment "we will be watching Toshiba's hardware sale in the 4th quarter." They later made comments about the public not choosing a side, and that they may be forced to. Then there were the recent articles concerning both sides heavily courting Warner. Warner has the power to declare a winner right now, and they know this. The only question is, which side will lead to the coveted end to the format war? This is the way I think Warner was looking at things back at the end of Q3, when they made the comment I mentioned above. Since they've favored HD DVD in the past, they were hoping that Toshiba's standalone sales would propel the format back into the lead, so they could go HD. They found out about the sales Toshiba was planning to have back in August at the same time Paramount did, and I'm sure they recieved an offer to go exclusive just like Paramount. However, they weren't so sure that Toshiba's sales would actually shift the numbers in HD DVD's favor, so they decided to wait it out instead of dropping Blu then and there. Now, if Toshiba sold enough hardware to catch up to Blu-Ray, then the choice would be obvious. Warner would go exclusive Red, as it would only build on the momentum and HD DVD would win the war pretty quickly. However, if Toshiba's sales didn't change the status qou, then they would go Blu, because then Blu-Ray would have 70% of studio support exclusively, and the choice between formats for consumers would be obvious, propelling Blu-Ray to dominance in just a short while, and the 2:1 sales ratios would keep growing in favor of Blu, to 3:1, then 4:1, etc. Either way, Warner wants this stuff to end, and from all the rumors, insiders, statements from big name execs, including those from Warner themselves, it's obvious they are going to go exclusive one way or another in early '08. There were no comments like that from the Warner executives, only comments that were twisted to be such. It's not obvious that it will happen. It might happen, but there is not real evidence right now for it, only assumed evidence.

Direct quote from Dan Silverberg, VP of high-definition media for Warner Home Video, leading me to believe that they will pick a side:

Source: Home Media Magazine

Direct quote from Warner Bros. Rons Sanders, on which I based my theories of which side they'd choose:

Source: DVDTown.com

Both directly from the horse's mouth.

interesting, thanks makingmusic

makingmusic476 said: Direct quote from Dan Silverberg, VP of high-definition media for Warner Home Video, leading me to believe that they will pick a side: When both formats launched and hardware prices were high, we made a decision to support both formats and let the consumer decide. But now that hardware pricing is affordable for both Blu-ray and HD DVD, it appears consumers no longer want to decide — so the notion of staying in two formats for the duration is something we are re-evaluating now that we are in the fourth quarter.  Source: Home Media Magazine  Direct quote from Warner Bros. Rons Sanders, on which I based my theories of which side they'd choose: It will be really pivotal what Toshiba does this fourth quarter in hardware. If they sell through everything they ship, and it´s a big number at the price points that are coming out, then I think [HD DVD] will be around for a long time. If they don´t, then it could go Blu-ray´s way. Source: DVDTown.com  Both directly from the horse's mouth.

I thought I would highlight what I believe is the important part of the statements ... Warner is looking at Toshiba's hardware numbers to see if enough people buy HD-DVD players this holiday season to justify continued support for the format (or to exclusively support the format).

and warner apparantly views HD-DVDs performance as questionable or they wouldn't be challenging HD-DVD to see what they can do to increase sales.

HappySqurriel said: makingmusic476 said: Direct quote from Dan Silverberg, VP of high-definition media for Warner Home Video, leading me to believe that they will pick a side: When both formats launched and hardware prices were high, we made a decision to support both formats and let the consumer decide. But now that hardware pricing is affordable for both Blu-ray and HD DVD, it appears consumers no longer want to decide — so the notion of staying in two formats for the duration is something we are re-evaluating now that we are in the fourth quarter. Source: Home Media Magazine Direct quote from Warner Bros. Rons Sanders, on which I based my theories of which side they'd choose: It will be really pivotal what Toshiba does this fourth quarter in hardware. If they sell through everything they ship, and it´s a big number at the price points that are coming out, then I think [HD DVD] will be around for a long time. If they don´t, then it could go Blu-ray´s way. Source: DVDTown.com Both directly from the horse's mouth. I thought I would highlight what I believe is the important part of the statements ... Warner is looking at Toshiba's hardware numbers to see if enough people buy HD-DVD players this holiday season to justify continued support for the format (or to exclusively support the format).

I discussed that just a few posts above. 

Warner has favored HD DVD in the past, and I think that if Toshiba sold enough hardware to catch up to Blu-Ray (or even come close) then Warner would've gone HD DVD exclusive.  However, if the hardware sales didn't change the status quo (which they haven't, Warner titles still sell 1.6:1 in favor of Blu-Ray), then Warner would go Blu-Ray exclusive.

All they want is for his war to end.  Sure, they have a large piece of the pie right now (36% HD marketshare) from being neutral, but they'd much rather have a smaller piece of a much larger pie. 

If HD DVD managed to catch up to Blu-Ray over this fourth quarter, then a move to Red would've only increase HD DVD's momentum, allowing for a quick end to the war. However, that hasn't happened, as price drops on the ps3 and Blu-Ray standalones have allowed Blu-Ray to maintain it's 2:1 overall lead on HD DVD, and it's 1.6:1 average lead on Warner titles.  As such, the only option would be to go Blu. 

If they went Red with the current hardware install bases and sales ratios, it would only help HD DVD to gain back a little bit of marketshare.  People wouldn't be much more likely to pick up a cheaper HD DVD player then then they would be now, as the war would still be going strong, and people would be scared of losing out.  This would only give the BDA more time to reach price parity with HD DVD on standalones (and they're almost there already, $270 vs $199), thus dragging the war on even longer.  If Warner went Red under the current circumstances, then the ps3 would still be the major player in the war for quite some time to come, as people would buy it irrregardless of the format war, and the war would drag on for years.

However, if Warner went Blu under the current circumstances, then Blu-Ray would have 70% studio support exclusively, and it would be an obvious choice which side to choose from a consumer standpoint.  The war would, for all intents and purposes, be over, and people wouldn't have to worry about buying a (soon to be) dead format.