steverhcp02 said: makingmusic476 said: I all depends on Warner.
Warner has released roughly 30% of all HD movies on either format, as they are the only studio releasing large numbers of catalog titles consistently, and if they went to HD, Blu would have no chance of winning. Both would probably stalemate, but equal movie selection combined with cheaper HD DVD players would definitely keep Blu from reaching total victory. I don't think it would be enough for HD to win, however. Like I said, content would be equal on both sides (with a slight lean to HD, assuming Fox continues to sit on it's ass) but the ps3 effect, early adopters going dual format, and the continuing (though meager) sales of Blu-Ray standalones would turn this war into a stalemate, something that retailers and studios really don't want. Also, sales of Blu-Ray SAL players would pick up in a year or two when they drop to around $150 just like what happened with HD DVD.
If Warner went HD, at least Fox would start releasing more titles. It took the Paramount move for them to even release Independence Day.
If Warner went Blu, however, Blu-Ray would have almost 80% of studio marketshare from the last year, and more than 80% of the current HD releases exclusive to the format, and it would guarantee a win within a couple of years. | here is my take. If warner goes HD DVD id guess HD DVD pulls it out sometime mid 2009. After then perhaps manufacturing costs would allow other CE's to actual make a profit on players, since Toshiba has single handedly destroyed any potential CE support for the near future. Plus, it will merely take I am Legend and the Dark Knight and bam, HD DVD domination. It will take time though, obviously as BD could weather the storm, but only for so long. If warner Goes BD exclusive we are looking at probably by CES that this thing will be over(by CES the war would be over, not WB will be exclusive by CES). Just no way HD DVD can compete with PAramount.DW and Uni with only Tosh making players (Onkyo repackaged Tosh doesnt count =)....)If by CES warner is BD exclusive the shear momentum of having virtually unanimous CE support, moreretail space and roughly 80% of home videos would effectively end this thing in the minds of all rationale human beings. |
I think Blu-Ray would survive if Warner went Red. Even if Blu-Ray becamse niche in the US, Japan would still be fully Blu-Ray, and Sony Pictures would never support HD DVD. Continued sales of the ps3 would provide Blu-Ray with life for years to come in the US. The format will never die. It will probably maintain even more marketshare than Laserdisc did at the pinnacle of it's life.
And, if Warner went Red, Fox would probably start releasing more titles, much like they did after the Paramount deal. They keep delaying titles because of AACS and BD+, but they'll step up their releases if they face losing BD+ all together. An influx of Fox catalog titles would definitely counteract the weight of Warner, aside from the Dark Knight.
Edit: Also, I believe that Sony and Panasonic (the two major patent holders of Blu-Ray technology) would begin subsidizing players should Warner go exclusive and HD DVD really start to take off. They're not going to stand by idly and watch the war slip from within their grasp. Toshiba has been subsidizing players practically since the ps3 launched, and if HD DVD begins to become a major threat, then Sony and Panasonic will follow suit.
Toshiba has played the price card. They played it almost a year ago. The BDA, however, still has that card sitting in their deck.