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Forums - Gaming - Why do people think DQIX will sell monumentally better than VIII?

MANUELF on 13 July 2008

Because Pokemon Diamond/Pearl almost outsell Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire.



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jman8 on 13 July 2008
DKII said:
Pokemon.

 

True... but I think if they're going to need to somehow make DQ multiplayer like Pokemon or Monster Hunter to see 5.72 million sales like Diamond/Pearl



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

Kasz216 on 13 July 2008
MontanaHatchet said:
Kasz216 said:
MontanaHatchet said:
The problem is that by the end of this generation, assuming we're very optimistic for both consoles, we're looking at a 7 million or so userbase for the PS3 and a 30 million or so userbase for the DS. And considering how amazingly popular the DS is in Japan (even if it's saturated the market, the userbase still buys game), I'd say it has a lot of potential to sell.


Yeah... however as Userbase grows so does demograhics.

At the start of a consoles life those who own the console are very similar in demographic. As the userbase expands more demographics grow.

So IF the userbase in Japan is one that is highly attuned to buying FF13 the 7 vs 30 million userbase isn't anywhere near as vast as it may sound.

That's true as well.

The problem is that looking at how past PS3 games have sold in Japan, it's very possible that FF13 will still sell less than previous iterations in Japan. And let's assume that FF13 will launch to a PS3 userbase of 3.5-4 million or so and end up selling a lot of hardware as well. It could have a launch expected for the franchise or perhaps even higher than expected, but as we have seen with Metal Gear Solid 4, it doesn't have high enough weekly or total sales to keep Final Fantasy 13 going with decent legs (and it's a pretty front loaded franchise to begin with).

We've seen that the DS has a very diverse userbase (and it's true for all 3 regions), but it has a lot more PS2 users than the PS3 has and both franchises were essentially on the PS2 last gen.

 

Yeah that's true.  PS3 will be missing a lot of those "casual" RPG people who played Final Fantasy just because they liked to play 1 or 2 a generation and get Final Fantasy cause it's branded "the best".  Though I expect that to be a stronger phenomena in the West then in Japan for some reason. 

Probably because Final Fantasy was already a big deal in Japan when the hype explosion opened up FF to the West.



Kasz216 on 13 July 2008
DKII said:
Pokemon.

It's sad the Dragon Warrior Monster games weren't better.  They were fun... not great though.



Oyvoyvoyv on 13 July 2008

I'd say there is much more pro FFXIII than anti. But that's beside the point.

Look at it this way:

DQ8 sold 1M out of Japan. 470K in America.
DQ:M:J for DS sold 400K in America. That's the same as DQ8 did there. This should mean that DQ is growing more popular overseas. DQ9 could make 1M in America.


Another thing is that every DQ game increases the base. Every game since 5 has outsell the earlier installment.

The DS DQs also have a bit of legs. DQ IV has had more than 50% sales after first week (and increasing, it still sells 2K+ every week), and Joker had almost 1/3 after first week. Both examples are from Japan.




http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

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Kasz216 on 13 July 2008
Soriku said:
Riachu said:
Soriku said:
outlawauron said:
@ Desroko

I disagree. I think that almost everyone who owned a PS2 owns a DS.

So, I don't understand why people think this will be way better than DQ8.

 

Because...more people will be introduced to the series? I'm pretty sure there's a good amount of people who own a DS but not a PS2 but could buy DQ IX.

The DS userbase is, how do I say it...more casual. Casual gamers don't go near RPG unless they are called Final Fantasy or Elder Scrolls. There are hardcore gamers with a DS but there are more casual gamers than hardcore games overall. RPGs in general, are for hardcore gamers anyway.

 


That's because...most of those other RPGs are niche? DQ is far from niche. It may not be popular in the West now but the DS can certainly make the series more popular...with the proper marketing. How many niche RPGs have you seen sell really well on...pretty much any other system?

@DKII

Don't you know? Pokemon doesn't count!

Well Pokemon is an exception because of how amazing it was as far as design goes.

I mean the battle system is as easy as Paper Rock Scissors for a casual, yet when you give it to an obssessed pro who plays online it's more complicated then nearly any other game out there.

You hardly ever have to worry about equipment or anything if you don't want to... plus the characters range from looking cool to cute.

Really it's a little ball of all things in one.  The only way to really not like Pokemon is if you don't like turn based battles or if your one of those types that lets image get to you too much by either seeing that "normal" people like it too or just grow to hate a game no matter how good it is because of it's hype.

 

 



jman8 on 13 July 2008

So I think we've decided DQIX is gonna sell better than the previous iteration, but I want to see some predictions. What do you guys think?



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

IkeVasel on 13 July 2008

Because thera are more DS than PS2 in Japan, you'll see it



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okr on 13 July 2008
jman8 said:
okr said:
DQIV DS sold 1.26 million in Japan, even DQM: Joker sold 1.5 million.

Zelda: PH sold 0.93 million (I mention Zelda here as the series is not that huge in Japan and the PH sales were quite a surprise).

If even spinoffs and remakes of DQ and a new Zelda DS sell one million or more in Japan alone, imagine what the next regular entry of the 2nd biggest Japanese franchise (behind Pokémon) can do.

I'm imagining 5 million max..... which is obviously great, but not a massive improvement. I could honestly see 5 mill. Japan and 2 million in NA and Others combined. That doesn't beat out FFVII, VIII, or X worldwide. And we have to cut IX and XII some slack since both were released at the very tale end of their systems' respective lives, so they were vastly overshadowed by the oncoming "next gen."

Yes, I should have read your OP more thoroughly. I concentrated on Japan too much and did not really think about your thread question. I just wanted to state with my first post that 5 mill. in Japan is very likely (even more if we look at the Japanese MHF sales on PSP which are the most impressive proof that Japan has switched from consoles to handhelds).

NA and Others (here especially Europe) will be the interesting part. We don't know enough about general DQ acceptance in NA and Europe. It will be very interesting to see how the DQIV remake will sell in the west. These sales will be a good indicator for DQIX.

At the moment I would say: Everything between 6 and 10 mill. worldwide is possible for DQIX. 9-10 mill. would be a "monumental" improvement for the franchise imo.



Viper1 on 13 July 2008
jman8 said:
Viper1 said:
Why will it sell more on DS? Simple. People in all major territories know of DQIX but DQVIII was mostly relegated to Japan.

It sold 3.6 million in Japan and another million everywhere else combined.

It should easily sell 3 million or more in Japan and given the awareness of the title in the US and Europe now, it's likely it will sell another million a piece there as well.

Really? Obviously popularity or awareness are extremely hard to gauge, but I find it hard to believe many more people know about the game. On top of that, I don't see this as a game that's going to get heavily marketed outside of Japan. 

 

The announcement that DQIX would appear exclusively on DS has caught the awareness of many people that never would have even cared about DQIX before.

 



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