That's true as well.

The problem is that looking at how past PS3 games have sold in Japan, it's very possible that FF13 will still sell less than previous iterations in Japan. And let's assume that FF13 will launch to a PS3 userbase of 3.5-4 million or so and end up selling a lot of hardware as well. It could have a launch expected for the franchise or perhaps even higher than expected, but as we have seen with Metal Gear Solid 4, it doesn't have high enough weekly or total sales to keep Final Fantasy 13 going with decent legs (and it's a pretty front loaded franchise to begin with).

We've seen that the DS has a very diverse userbase (and it's true for all 3 regions), but it has a lot more PS2 users than the PS3 has and both franchises were essentially on the PS2 last gen.

Looking at the VG data the DS and PS2 in Japan are no more than 1-2 million units apart with the DS in the lead. And it has appeared that the DS is pretty saturated there, so it's lead isn't going to get much bigger. Maybe 25 million for the DS and 20 million for the PS2 by the time DQIX comes out. A big difference, but not monumental.

The really key question is what is Square doing that would all of a sudden make DQ more popular than it already was. We obviously know very little about the game, but like I said earlier, DQ has always been very conservative and traditional, so I don't see a much larger audience for the game.

On top of all that, what DS RPG has come at all close to selling 4.69 million units before? At least the PS2 had huge selling RPGs before and therefore had a huge RPG fanbase to draw off of.

The majority of DQ games sales are from Japan.  I don't it will ever reach that kind of popularity in the West because:

1.It is a turn based RPG, which generally don't sell very well unless it is a FF game

2.Most Cel-shaded games don't sell very well in the US( a true and sad fact)

3.RPGs haven't been in the center spotlight since the PS1 era

4.Americans prefer to play RPGs that intoduce something new to the genre

Maybe it depend on gameplay and marketing campaign.
We know nothing about DQ9.

I'm looking at FF3 sales and comparing them to VC explosion plus the dragon quest franchise being very popular in japan.

DQIV DS sold 1.26 million in Japan, even DQM: Joker sold 1.5 million.

Zelda: PH sold 0.93 million (I mention Zelda here as the series is not that huge in Japan and the PH sales were quite a surprise).

If even spinoffs and remakes of DQ and a new Zelda DS sell one million or more in Japan alone, imagine what the next regular entry of the 2nd biggest Japanese franchise (behind Pokémon) can do.

Really? Obviously popularity or awareness are extremely hard to gauge, but I find it hard to believe many more people know about the game. On top of that, I don't see this as a game that's going to get heavily marketed outside of Japan. 

The DS userbase is, how do I say it...more casual. Casual gamers don't go near RPG unless they are called Final Fantasy, Pokemon or Elder Scrolls. There are hardcore gamers with a DS but there are more casual gamers than hardcore games overall. RPGs in general, are for hardcore gamers anyway.

Pokemon.

I'm imagining 5 million max..... which is obviously great, but not a massive improvement. I could honestly see 5 mill. Japan and 2 million in NA and Others combined. That doesn't beat out FFVII, VIII, or X worldwide. And we have to cut IX and XII some slack since both were released at the very tale end of their systems' respective lives, so they were vastly overshadowed by the oncoming "next gen."