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MontanaHatchet on 13 July 2008
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Kasz216 said:
MontanaHatchet said:
The problem is that by the end of this generation, assuming we're very optimistic for both consoles, we're looking at a 7 million or so userbase for the PS3 and a 30 million or so userbase for the DS. And considering how amazingly popular the DS is in Japan (even if it's saturated the market, the userbase still buys game), I'd say it has a lot of potential to sell.


Yeah... however as Userbase grows so does demograhics.

At the start of a consoles life those who own the console are very similar in demographic.  As the userbase expands more demographics grow.

So IF the userbase in Japan is one that is highly attuned to buying FF13 the 7 vs 30 million userbase isn't anywhere near as vast as it may sound.

That's true as well.

The problem is that looking at how past PS3 games have sold in Japan, it's very possible that FF13 will still sell less than previous iterations in Japan. And let's assume that FF13 will launch to a PS3 userbase of 3.5-4 million or so and end up selling a lot of hardware as well. It could have a launch expected for the franchise or perhaps even higher than expected, but as we have seen with Metal Gear Solid 4, it doesn't have high enough weekly or total sales to keep Final Fantasy 13 going with decent legs (and it's a pretty front loaded franchise to begin with).

We've seen that the DS has a very diverse userbase (and it's true for all 3 regions), but it has a lot more PS2 users than the PS3 has and both franchises were essentially on the PS2 last gen.