So I was reading a couple of the "FFXIII=Epic Fail" threads, and a number of people mentioned how Dragon Quest IX is going to have absolutely massive sales now that the series is on the DS. I'm not saying the game isn't going to outsell FFXIII, but do people really think DQIX is now going to sell much more than the 4.69 million that DQVIII sold? 

I highly doubt it and here's why. A) The PS2 and DS have similar sized user bases. B) DQ has always been a very conservative traditional RPG series. What has changed about the DQIX that's going to all of a sudden draw in a larger fan base? 

Maybe people think that DQIX is going to make way more money now that it's on the cheaper-to-develop-for DS. Even that thought is flawed b/c the revenue for these games is so much greater than the cost that profit isn't going to all of a sudden double. On top of that, you could sell PS2 games for $50 while DS games typically go for $40 max, which offsets some of the development cost advantage of the DS. 

Your thoughts?

Playing an RPG on a handheld sucks. That should be the reason.

DQ9 might sell better in Japan. But that's about it.

Handhelds are (no pun intended) more hands on. They're meant for games which require extreme concentration and quick reflexes with one's own fingers. RPGs rarely require that, so I agree with your point.

As for the TC's point, well, let me come back to you (you'll get some good responses anyways).

The problem is that by the end of this generation, assuming we're very optimistic for both consoles, we're looking at a 7 million or so userbase for the PS3 and a 30 million or so userbase for the DS. And considering how amazingly popular the DS is in Japan (even if it's saturated the market, the userbase still buys game), I'd say it has a lot of potential to sell.

Well, the DS and PS2 do not have similar Japanese user bases, or won't, at least. The DS has already passed the PS2, and the gap will only be larger by the time the game is released.

Why will it sell more on DS? Simple. People in all major territories know of DQIX but DQVIII was mostly relegated to Japan.

It sold 3.6 million in Japan and another million everywhere else combined.

It should easily sell 3 million or more in Japan and given the awareness of the title in the US and Europe now, it's likely it will sell another million a piece there as well.

@ Desroko

I disagree. I think that almost everyone who owned a PS2 owns a DS.

So, I don't understand why people think this will be way better than DQ8.

Yeah... however as Userbase grows so does demograhics.

At the start of a consoles life those who own the console are very similar in demographic. As the userbase expands more demographics grow.

So IF the userbase in Japan is one that is highly attuned to buying FF13 the 7 vs 30 million userbase isn't anywhere near as vast as it may sound.  Then again... if it's japan only... sure DQ might outsell FF... but as for the last DQ it's probably up in the air. Likely but it likely won't CRUSH it.

Userbase advantage is much better for new games then sequels... as new users may be a bit intimidated by the big number at the end.

likely because there are also plenty of people with DS who haven't bought a PS2.  Whether or not DQ will appeal to them or not... who knows.

My Aunt owns like 3 DS.  She still isn't going to be picking up RPGs.