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Forums - Sales Discussion - Me from 2005: Future of Next-Generation of Gaming

Very cool John. I was saying similar things and I knew that Nintendo was going to come back in a way people never would have expected, but you are pretty much spot on with everything at the time. Not that it was too hard to rationalize if you had an open mind about it. Most people are blind and gullible.



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I'm surprised you aren't trying to find these people and rub it in a little, I would



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:
I'm surprised you aren't trying to find these people and rub it in a little, I would

It's Usenet. He has all the email addresses right there in the header of each reply!



Avinash_Tyagi said:
I'm surprised you aren't trying to find these people and rub it in a little, I would

I've been thinking about it. I love to look back on these things and see just how wrong people were. They could not see it and I was like "Wow." I won't be obnoxious with it, no, but I might look these guys up and ask them what they think about the gen now compared to what they said then.

Thanks to all for the compliments. They mean a lot to me.

Dryden, I AM a part of that "bored gamer" contingent which is probably why I felt that so well. I didn't keep up with game news for years by that time. I was more into playing what I already had and collecting "ol' school" games from pawn shops and used game stores (R.I.P. Rhino's *sniff*). I'm 31 BTW (prefer to call it twenty-eleven though).

JMan, thanks for highlighting those quotes from those doubters. I laugh everytime I read those. No vision whatsoever.

Right on KruzeS about people thinking DS & Wii were incomparable. They couldn't be more wrong. Those systems are the same philosophy in different bodies. Once DS succeeded Wii was in the bag.

Good breakdown JHawkNH. That is how you read a market. Taking the good and the bad, pros and cons and looking outside of the clubhouse to see every type of point of view. This is how I did mine. Understanding a little about human nature can't hurt either.

deadhorse, maybe I should use this on my resume to take Pachter's job eh? Hahahaha!

John Lucas

(Oh & I made all these soothsaying statements without knowing a thing about E3 2005. I had never even gone online to talk about gaming until summer of 2005. before then it was just EGM until 2002).



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

you are spot on, as always John :) we are lucky to have you here on this forum....why not start a fanclub for John?:P I would surely sign up any day:P

you are crazy John, in a very funny and intresting way, it's always worth reading you posts, keep it up!!



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Dryden said:


There are 50 million "80s kids" that grew up with a Nintendo in their home. They mostly followed Ninty to the SNES in the early 90s. However, around the time the next gen in consoles rolled out, with the 3DO, Jag, and eventually the PS1 and Saturn, this group did not follow to those consoles. This group graduated high school and went to college, and almost completely jumped to the PC after experiencing a "eureka moment" upon seeing shareware games like Doom, Descent, Warcraft, and Magic Carpet. Oh ... and that Internet thing.

Again, your mileage may very, but from my circle -- my clique -- I do not know a single person who owned both an NES and later a SNES that wound up owning a PS1. Every single one jumped to the PC almost solely to play games like Doom on direct dial-up services like DWANGO, and later Quake over true TCP/IP.

This is the generation that I see enjoying the Wii. Over 30, with children, and bored with FPS since we've been playing it since about 1993/94. This is the group that is getting together socially to knock back a few beers and have "Wii parties." I've been doing it. My friends have been doing it. I honestly cannot remember when I've had this much fun playing games -- it's been a loooong time, to say the least.

Nintendo's "ace up its sleeve" going into this gen has been its back-catalog of NES & SNES classics on the Virtual Console. Neither Sony nor Microsoft can possibly compete with that, and that represents a potential "built-in" audience of > 50 million potential buyers, before we even get into the discussion of "blue oceans" or "casual gamers" or "that gimmicky wii remote thingy."


 scary, you just described my whole youth till now....



All I know is with how eerily close John was with predicting this whole gen it makes me want to believe in his 240,000,000 prediction. Oh and on the childhood thing hes got me pretty spot on too only I'm 21 I got my NES when I was 4 and started the PC gaming on Warcraft 2 although I did pick up that PS1 along the way :P . Skipped the last half of the 5th gen and had seriously reduced console time during the 6th thanks to MMORPGs. Which is the cause for me catching up now on stuff I never played like Windwaker and what not.



Now Playing : Links Crossbow Training(Wii), Super Mario Galaxy(Wii) FE: Path of Radiance(GC)

Why was this topic bumped from three months ago?



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

Wow, ... John Lucas = cousin of Sean Malstrom!

Some very funny predictions from the other people. My favorite was this one:

The Gamecube Wii will launch sometime after April, 2006. It will be seen as a godly machine by all the Nintendo fanboys but the general public will look at it and go "Huh?" The new controller design will be seen as a gimmick and not a very good one at that.
Anyways, I blame WiiFit.

Whiteoutking: Why did you post if you want it to disappear again? seems counter productive.

Side note: With their emails listed on that forum, I wonder if anyone is dickish enough to quote them back to themselves and see if they claim they never said it.



See Ya George.

"He did not die - He passed Away"

At least following a comedians own jokes makes his death easier.