Microsoft: Too Early To Tell If Next Xbox Will Be First Out

The Xbox 360 will be selling for a long time, says Robbie Bach.
By Kat Bailey, 06/19/2008
The Xbox 360 is famous for pushing the envelope of the traditional hardware cycle, arriving on the market a year early in an effort to beat former market leader Sony to the next-generation punch. Now, with the Xbox 360 approaching its third year on the market, speculation has already turned to the next round of consoles. But while Microsoft Entertainment and Devices president Robbie Bach happily defends Microsoft's decision to get their system on the market first, they are in no hurry to shorten the hardware cycle for a second time.

In an interview with VentureBeat, Bach said that Microsoft's decision to put the Xbox 360 on the market as early as they did was the right decision, pointing to the advantages that it has given Microsoft over competitors Sony and Nintendo.

"If you take the question of whether it was the right thing to try to be first, the answer to that is definitely yes," Bach said. "It has given us a leg up in a number of places that are super important. It has given us a leg up with game developers. It has given us a leg up from an economics perspective. It helped us expand Xbox Live quickly. At a strategy level, if you asked if we wanted to be first again, I would say yes."<--the now-famous quote

When asked about the red ring of death problems that have plagued the Xbox 360 since it's release, he said that Microsoft was ready that the product was ready, but that the RROD was caused by "complex interaction with some very complex parts." But, Bach also admitted that he would change things if he could. "It's easy for me to go back and say, if I knew what would transpire over the next two years, would I go back and do something different, I think that's an obvious answer. But the fact is, based on the data we had at the time and all the hard work we put into it, there was no way to see what actually happened," he said.

But asked if he wanted the next Xbox to be the first on the market too, Bach said that it was still too early to tell. "Our view is we will be selling Xbox 360 for a long time. We are always working on new technologies. We have people working on those. People ask me how many people I have working on the next generation," Bach said. "On the one hand, it's everybody. On the other, it's nobody. People are continuously working on new technology."

While Microsoft has been planning for the next generation since the Xbox 360 hit the market, nothing is concrete until a shipping window is set some 18 months out, said Bach. In the meantime, Microsoft's number one goal remains profitability, with Bach calling it an "important milestone."

"There is no concrete market share or profit number. But certainly, having the economics and ecosystem be healthy are measurements of success. The video game business has now gotten big enough, so there will be multiple victors. It's not as much a winner take all market as it was ten years ago. That speaks to the growth of the market, the diversity of what gamers want, and the ability to differentiate ourselves."

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Just like I've said many times, just because they'd like to be first DOESN'T mean it will be out soon.

Oh I agree it will be on the market for a very long time. I don't expect to see a new console from them on the market until 2012 at the earliest. This one will have legs unlike the first.

Nothing surprising there. We'll first hear rumblings of a new console during the summer of 09 or 10... 15-17 months later, we'll get the console. So, if we hear nothing this E3 (and we won't), that means 09 is out of the question.

I'm curious to know if MS wants to push the new console to 2011 or not though... I have mixed feelings about that. While I want a new console sooner, not having to buy new hardware is nice, too. :D

If you looked at just the sales aspect of things, then yes I would have to agree that it would be around for quite a long time. However, there is also the RROD factor, which means that MS has to spend a certain amount of $$$ for 1 out of every X 360s to be refurbished, has to spend extra for the extra heatsinks, fans, etc. as well, so the big load to bear might influence MS to end development for thet 360 a bit sooner than we think.

My best guess is that the 360 will still sell hardware for perhaps at most 2 years after the date that the next console actually comes out. So in that regard, yes it will be a while, but....not as long as the PS2 though.

A new Xbox would be cool if they still supported the 360, unlike the original.

 Well, we first read articles in EGM about the PS3 and what it would have back in 2003....so perhaps we'll hear about this year or in 09.

I'm thinking 2011 will be the year.

Except that is why they put $1 billion aside last July so they wouldn't have to worry about that factor anymore. With the new console design and additional redesigns those cost will go down over time as well.

Uh, they set aside a budget for expected repairs, but regardless, the decision of how long to keep the 360 going is a separate matter.

If they release too soon I think they will actually see smaller sales and hurt their growth.

Wii has made it absolutely clear that having the best specs means nothing regarding selliing the most consoles. PS3 recovery has me thinking that the early release didn't even hurt Sony directly - Sony did that themselves with price point, lack of games and the HD format war. To be clear what I mean is that looking at PS3 sales since price cuts and the games started coming ig Sony had their house in order from the get go they'f probably have caught up with 360 as fast as the Wii did.

If they release too early then they will on;y get the hardcore in US while most likely the broader install base will stick with Wii, PS3 and yes the 360 (unless MS kill it).

With the likely impact on economu over next 2 to 3 years I also reckon that asking consumers to buy another expense console would not go down well vs sticking with the console you have and ploughing the money into games purchases instead.