Ok, Mario Kart Wii will pass Brawl... It'll stay that way for like 2-3 weeks, until Brawl launches in Europe (the launch won't be THAT big because NoE waited too long and momentum has passed longe since, I'll grab the game up still though! And I know many others will, just not the potential mass-market they could've reached when it would've launched back in 2007. Eehrm, Mario Kart Wii will outsell Brawl in the long-term though, legs and a broader appeal, combined with a more 'casual' and fun orientated group of owners will ensure that this prediction of mine will be correct, just give it time...!

 What are you on?

So you think MKWii will pass Brawl soon (It will be confirmed when the Japan+America numbers are in) TRUE

Then you think Brawl will pass MK back due to the imminent European release pretty much TRUE

Then you think MKWii will pass Brawl again after a "while" I am 99% sure this will come true, the debatable part is whether it can do it before Christmas


So we have Mario Kart and Brawl released in all regions, and MK just passes Brawl so is therefore selling faster, but for some reason Brawl will pass it again? seriously not going to happen, once MKWii passes Brawl for the second time I see no reason for it to slow down faster than Brawl will.

To be honest I think Mario Kart has a chance at catching Brawl up even in America, it is pretty much assured eventual victory in Others, and very likely to pass Brawl in Japan (perhaps becoming the 4th 2million seller for Wii there) America will not make enough difference even if Brawl is still the victor there.

Personally I see Brawl ending up somewhere around 9-11 million, but Mario Kart will keep selling a-la MKDS and probably reach close to 15 million.

MKW will pass Brawl then Brawl will be released in Europe and pass MKW and never look back.

I think MKWii will be ahead, and stay ahead. I don't expect much from the European launch, and Mario Kart still has a shortage in Europe.

MK Wii will sell more in the long run although I wish Brawl would sell more since it's the better game. I haven't played it yet but I just know it's better because Melee was the best thing since sliced bread and from what I heard Brawl is better than Melee.

It's going to sell a lot more, as it should. Maybe this way Nintendo will focus on online more.

Actually, are you sure Brawl will pass MKWii with Europe launch?

Last week, MK sold 170K more than Brawl. Before European numbers, Brawl was 60K ahead.

It sold 76K this week in Others, meaning that MKWii is 16K ahead before Japan and American numbers are in.

This means that for MKWii not to fall behind Brawl, it must have sold more over the next 3 weeks in America, Japan and Others, than Brawl will on its launch week in Others + the weekly sales in Japan + America.

Now let's see. If Brawl launches with 750K in Others, it will sell about 800K that week. That means we have around 800K to beat Brawl with in 3 weeks in America and Japan, and 2 weeks in Others.

In America, it normally sells about 50-60K more than Brawl. If we say 60K, that's 180K for the 3 weeks.

It sells about 40-50K more in Japan, so let's say 150K there.

It could sell 100K more in Europe, not likely, but definately possible. So 200K there.

That's 630K right there.

Now, all it has to do in the SSBB launch week, is to sell 270K, which is a bit high.

These numbers are of course a bit high, but they show that it is possible for MKWii to stay above SSBB for launch week in Europe at least, and if it does that, I have a feeling that it will be able to stay above.

If SSBB sells less than 750K, it would have to sell less. At 500K, MK should be a sure leader.

ive already pre-ordered SSBB and im waiting for stock of Mario Kart, i think both have good long term sales potential.

 You realise that the second week of Brawl in Europe will also be higher than MKWii though.... so even if MKWii manages to stay ahead on the launch week (I am doubtful) SSBB will sell more than it WW for 1-3 weeks after that at least.

Are you sure? Nintendo has a history of shipping low amounts, and even though they had extra time, I think they will have a bit supply constrains.

With 80K MKWii Europe, 80K America and 50K Japan, SSBB 160K Europe would leave them even.

I too doubt that MKWii will make it, but it would be really cool if it pulled it off.