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Forums - Sales Discussion - What do think are the top marketshare %s for each console thins generation?

fishamaphone on 10 June 2007
z64dan said:
fishamaphone said:
The thing is, developing a new console is the most expensive part... you're putting in money, and not getting any out of it at that point. If they're selling well, and continue to sell well, they would be stupid to cut early and start from scratch again. That's more development costs that they'll have to eat.

So why did sony release the PS3 then? The PS2 is selling really well, worldwide.


 Every product has a sell-rate curve.  Your first sales are towards your "innovators" market, and they'll probably make up 10-15% of your total sales... then you have your "early adopters," which add another 30% or so... then you get your late adopters, which is generally the point of your peak sales, and a good chunk of your decline as well... Once sales have decreased to a certain level, the only people buying your product are what the marketing industry calls "laggards."  You want the next product to be selling at about the same level as your current product right about at the transition between "late adopters" and "laggards."  Because of this, you have to introduce a new product before momentum is entirely killed.  If you see a reason that momentum might be killed (a competitor releasing a new product, for example) you have no choice but to release the new product slightly ahead of your planned curve.

(also: you'll notice how Sony releasing the PS3 is turning out to be a big mistake?  yeah, they probably *should* have waited longer)