My 16GB iPod Touch tends to last about 15 hours just playing music.  I don't use it for video, so I can't really comment on that.

While I agree with this post, I am one who says the Wii and the PS3/360 are not in the same market, just because they both plug into a TV.

I personally think we are both right :) 

 Yes. They own around 20% of the smart phone market.

Actually, I could see Apple as a possible source of disruption for Nintendo. Nintendo will survive because they can keep a profitable business model even while their competition is doing better. But, we all remember the SNES to the PS1 market leader transition.

Business relationships with the manufacturer (MS, Ninty, Sony) is just as important as the sales figures. MS and Sony (more now after KK left) are much more willing to give an arm and a leg to third parties to market their games than Nintendo. Nintendo's first party runs the show while their third parties are more or less on their own with marketing.

I think Apple knows the industry very well and could really tap into the third parties to put more effort into casual titles.

I've given this thing a bit more thought, and I still have to say that there's no way Apple can touch the DS. The iPhone can't disrupt the DS, although the iPhone is selling really well and will propably sell even better with the new version and all the new countries it's expanding to. But the price point is just too high for disrupting the DS.

BUT, and this dawned on me, Apple can disrupt the portable application distribution market. I know it's not as easy to think about it from this angle, but the way software is distributed is a market like any other, and the current "product" being offered for the mainstream has existed for a long time: the distribution of a physical copy containing the software. I know, digital distribution of software has existed for a long time, so why would this be any different? Well, despite the existance of digital distribution, it is a market that is still in its infancy, there's only a handful of services that exist and even then, those services supplement the traditional distribution model. And, in all of those cases, the manufacturers have to be very wary of maintaining the existing distribution channel, they can't afford to piss them of via bypassing them online. Now, enter Apple with their AppStore, which is the ONLY legitimate channel to get software for your device, and you can see the difference right there. Taking a look at the situation from the Christensens disruption strategy point of view, I got the following shield and sword.

The asymmetrical shield of motivation: Nintendo and Sony get their revenue (for DS and PSP) from the traditional channel, and they can't afford to disrupt it or they will risk losing much more than they have to gain. Apple, on the other hand, has no other line of distribution for the software, so it has to make digital distribution work. Apple has nothing to lose and everything to win.

The sword of asymmetrical skills: I don't believe this to be as important, but Apple has a huge advantage with iTunes. They already have the infrastructure in place, and they have the brand recognition in digital distribution that the others can only dream about. Also, since Apple has no history in the gaming market, it can handle the publishing process differently, which may lead to a different business model emerging.

There are in all likelyhood a ton of things I've missed, so I welcome all discussion. Do you think Apple could disrupt the distribution channel of portable device applications? One huge block in their way is of course the fact that AppStore works only for Apple devices, but could it still become the dominant business model that other's have to respond to?

I hope they do this. Because by god I hope for a "Hello, I'm a DS! Hello, I'm an Iphone - what can you do?" commercial so we can pick it apart.

And how, exactly, has Apple "defied analyst predictions over the past few years"? Sure, they have with their computer lines, but that's because they offer a good, high-quality second choice in the near-monopolistic personal computer market. All of their new products as of late, however - Apple TV, I'm looking at you - have not seen anywhere near the success of the iPod. 

Seriously, every time Apple comes out with a new non-personal-computer product, everyone states that it'll be "the next iPod" in terms of success. However, Apple still have to prove that they can make the "next iPod" - or, in other words, that the iPod phenomenon wasn't just an innovative but overzealous company in the right place at the right time.

Apple already has proven they can "make the next iPod". Analysts have predicted several times that the iPod would begin to fade for a variety of reasons such as iTunes Store competition, the Zune, the inability to use other online stores with DRM, etc. Apple keeps coming out with newer iPods that break the mold, such as the Touch. If the current iPods were just like the older iPod with larger drives, then competitors would start to eat Apple's lunch, but Apple refuses to become a stationary target. The same thing happened with the original iMac. "Uh, oh... demand for the candy flavored, gumdrop Mac is falling... Apple is in trouble." Nope... they came out with the iMac desk lamp, er, computer, and then the iMac all-in-the-screen computer. Mr. Jobs seems to have learned a thing or two about how to outguess his competition.

Like I said, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Apple *will* become a force in the handheld gaming market... just that I think it unwise to say they can't possibly compete in that space. And I don't believe they will become relevant in that market with any of their current devices... it would probably be a derivative/enhanced version of an iPod that would be compelling.

And yes, the AppleTV is a counter-example of their prowess... I mentioned that in my original post.

EDIT: I forgot to mention... I can think of a recent product that has had great success... the iPhone.  They already have 20% of their target market (smart phones) and they've never made a phone before.

 Wise words.