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crumas2 on 06 June 2008
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Garcian Smith said:
crumas2 said:

Still, I tend not to vote against a talented, ruthless underdog that's defied analyst predictions over the past few years.

 

And how, exactly, has Apple "defied analyst predictions over the past few years"? Sure, they have with their computer lines, but that's because they offer a good, high-quality second choice in the near-monopolistic personal computer market. All of their new products as of late, however - Apple TV, I'm looking at you - have not seen anywhere near the success of the iPod.

Seriously, every time Apple comes out with a new non-personal-computer product, everyone states that it'll be "the next iPod" in terms of success. However, Apple still have to prove that they can make the "next iPod" - or, in other words, that the iPod phenomenon wasn't just an innovative but overzealous company in the right place at the right time.


Apple already has proven they can "make the next iPod". Analysts have predicted several times that the iPod would begin to fade for a variety of reasons such as iTunes Store competition, the Zune, the inability to use other online stores with DRM, etc. Apple keeps coming out with newer iPods that break the mold, such as the Touch. If the current iPods were just like the older iPod with larger drives, then competitors would start to eat Apple's lunch, but Apple refuses to become a stationary target. The same thing happened with the original iMac. "Uh, oh... demand for the candy flavored, gumdrop Mac is falling... Apple is in trouble." Nope... they came out with the iMac desk lamp, er, computer, and then the iMac all-in-the-screen computer. Mr. Jobs seems to have learned a thing or two about how to outguess his competition.

Like I said, I'm not trying to convince anyone that Apple *will* become a force in the handheld gaming market... just that I think it unwise to say they can't possibly compete in that space. And I don't believe they will become relevant in that market with any of their current devices... it would probably be a derivative/enhanced version of an iPod that would be compelling.

And yes, the AppleTV is a counter-example of their prowess... I mentioned that in my original post.

EDIT: I forgot to mention... I can think of a recent product that has had great success... the iPhone.  They already have 20% of their target market (smart phones) and they've never made a phone before.