Research firm DFC Intelligence predicts that PlayStation 3's worldwide installed base will overtake Xbox 360's in 2009, finishing in a "strong second" behind Wii.

This is their prediction based on different models of analysis:

it mentiones that the 360 was unable to make a considerable lead needed to maintain a long-term advantage while PS3 was struggling.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10710&Itemid=2&limit=1&limitstart=0

While I too believe this will be the outcome more or less, I do believe some occurence could push the 360 back ahead of the PS3 if someone in Microsoft can push the right buttons and make the right decisions and/or Sony screws up again. Both consoles are basically interchangeable for the most part, with PS3 having a Blu Ray player as it's main highlight and I believe most consumers know this. In hindsight, you can basically chalk up the PS3's failure to the 1 1/2 hour Sony conference at E3, where it became painfully obvious something went wrong. You can chalk up the newfound revival of the PS3 to the price drop and the death of HD-DVD. As long as Sony plays their cards right, and don't make any more boneheaded decisions, they should do just fine against Microsoft. 

If they're suggesting in that article that the strong 2nd place finish Sony will have means they will be somewhere even in the remote vicinity of the Wii's numbers then they're talking out of their asses. The Wii is going to crush both HD consoles as bad as the PS2 crushed the Gamecube and Xbox last generation. Maybe worse. Just wait and see as production keeps slowly ramping up for the Wii how much they fly by the competition.

I think this is the most probable situation. If the 360 can't get a push past PS3 this holiday season while it's much cheaper price in America, and especially Others, I think chances of otherwise are finished.

I am starting to believe that Sony doesn't want to drop the price this year(if MS doesn't drop the price).they will drop the price at the beginning of 09

Is that something you believe because Sony themselves announced that they're not going to drop their price this year and concentrate on profitability??

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=26813 

They don't need to drop the price again. The first drop obviously put it in the reasonable range, and should have been the beginning price, regardless of the loss Sony would have taken. Since E3 2006, everyone had been asking for them to cut $100 dollars off each model to make it reasonable and they didn't listen, made cocky comments, and paid the price. When they finally pulled their head out of their ass and dropped the price, the consumer forgave and bought the machine they wanted but couldn't justify buying yet. Another price drop is not going to be a big increaser. It definitely won't make up for the losses they'll take by doing it. Now that they're trending above Microsoft, they can ride the wave and make sensible decisions to get profitibility on the PS3. I would love a price drop myself as I'm on the lookout for my very own PS3, but it wouldn't be a good decision for Sony.

Now that I think about it, Microsoft is really at the mercy of Sony's decision making. Microsoft can take advantage of another Sony screwup, but if one doesn't happen, then Microsoft is going to have to concentrate on finishing a strong third and making the games division at Microsoft a profitable venture. They already have enough console sales and momentum to get a good majority of all HD games that will be created this gen, so trying to beat Sony in the marketshare game by losing profitibility is just foolish. 

I fully agree PS3 will be a close second behind the Wii. 360 will be a distant third.

there is already 2 threads about this

http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=1226
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=28161&start=0