Heh. Yeah, the X-mote would just be an attempt at demographic expansion, orbiting the full saturation point for a bit instead of the usual forward push in the model above. It wouldn't be much of an orbit, either; the 360 is already at a point where the friction is becoming too great to maintain inertia, going for expansion at this point in its lifespan isn't going to have a meaningful effect. If they'd introduced the X-mote about a year ago, however, that would've been a (slightly) different story.

360 definitely will outsell the original XBOX's lifetime sales. Just not by the sorts of numbers some people are predicting is all.

PS360 has seen bundles, colors, price drops, special editions.

The Wii has seen none of these things, YET.

On that model above, products normally follow a fairly linear progression: they start out pushing towards market saturation, and then occasionally attempt demographic expansion to keep from reaching an unmovable market position too soon. The Wii, however, is basically spiraling around it. Nintendo's been doing demographic expansion right from the start, meaning they're still orbiting inward instead of going straight forward.

Wii can probally move up .05% each week till the end of the year will surpass the 50% threshold. The only one in market share suffering is 360 bc they could only go down from the start.

However, wouldn't this suggest that once the wii does hit it's top point it's collapse should be steeper due to the fact that they've already branched out in many directions?

Though admittidly said drop is likely to come long after PS3 and 360 if you count sales as the metric of time.

I mean, they will likely be able to buff this if they get more third party exclusives from big franchise titles and the like... but the Wii should generally have a different market curve then most systems.

Which granted won't matter in the console war since it's all about momentum.  But something to consider when figuring where wii will end up once we get halfway through the wii's lifespan. 

Oh rest assured, if the Wii ever does get as far into market saturation as the PS3 and 360 have, it will slow down quite noticeably. The DS in Japan is a wonderful prelude of what the Wii will eventually be experiencing (and what the DS will be experiencing worldwide eventually). Even there, though, you can see the effect of market inertia. The DS slowdown has been alarmingly fast in Japan, but it's still not killed its sales off completely (or even come close).

 Oh yeah, i know.  Just mentioning it as a cautionary tale to some people.  

It will get way higher than 50%, maybe up to 70%.

 DUN DUN DUUUUUUUUUUUUUN!!!!

Nobody even knows what tricks Nintendo has up their sleeve right now.  They're just rocking 1 stellar game per month, Brawl, Kart, Fit, then waiting in the shadows until E3.... I'm scared.

I still say 50% by Christmas.  Quote me on it.  It's not only a matter of Wii speeding up.  It's that AND PS360 slowing down.  For 2 months straight Wii's been speeding up and PS360 have both been slowing down.  The gap is widening faster than usual.

Somebody should make a graph showing each system's WW marketshare after each NPD, and show how fast Wii gains marketshare and how it's currently accelerating.  I'm too lazy.