It occurs to me that we won’t see much if any jump in Wii sales this month due to Wii Fit. The usual expectation that consumers will buy a console when a blockbuster game/non game is released would only apply if they had a reasonable expectation of being able to find a console. The unavailability of the Wii has been going on long enough and well publicized so that it is unlikely anyone would not know. Who would buy an $89 game/non game without having something to play it on?

All available pre-orders sold out, almost certainly to people that already had or recently purchased a Wii. People that weren’t able to get a pre-order won’t necessarily buy one until the Wii Fit supply is ample.

The Wii had stellar sales in March and April, higher than was anticipated. The reason for the extra sales was most likely the Wii Fit peak which occurred in advance of the release.

Using last month as an example; the PS3 and the Xbox sold about 200,000 each. Recent history has had the Wii selling somewhere around the sum of the two. That trend would have indicated expected sales of around 400,000. Instead sales were almost twice that at close to 800,000. My guess is the extra 400,000 sales were the Wii Fit surge.

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The Wii's peak in NA has always been dependant on availability. It always has.

So to continue with what I was saying, Wii Fit will only add to the demand of the Wii. So instead of the Wii being sold out and peaking until Christmas of this year, it will be sold out and "peak" until Christmas of next year. My prediction for end of this year: 18-20 million copies of Wii Fit will be sold.

Granted, my point was that supposedly they were shipping a lot of extra Wiis to coincide with the launch and they may very likly sell out but not to people buying Wii Fit. May sales will be a measure of pent up demand in general.

understand that given the NA track record first with the Wii console it's in all reality.

supply = sales.

The notion is they have found the demand curve so to say Wiifit would have an affect on Wii console sales in NA is pointless and to say it peaked at a point before or after is again pointless.

In other words examining your question the answer is there is no way to judge at this point.

 They'll have to settle for getting that $330 in two payments instead of one for now. Poor little fellers.

Exactly right. My point is that the trade press is expecting to see a measurable peak from Wii Fit, they've said as much. But they won't be able to determine one and will take the total sales and try to draw some conclusion which will be totally meaningless. Sales will depend purely on the supply and would be exactly the same if Wii Fit wasn't a factor.

Hard to say, though. The promotion of Wii Fit may still motivate those "Oprah watchers" who see it on there to go buy a Wii even if they can't get Wii Fit right away, since both generally should be in relatively short supply. Even finding one of the two would be a notable accomplishment in a lot of areas right now.

Also, Wii Fit will still be around, even if "pre-orders" are filled. Most major retailers (Target, Walmart, etc) don't preorder, and that's where a lot of the *ahem* "casual" gamers do a fair share of game shopping. Since those stores shoudl get a healthy stock of them initially, and then regular restocks, it won't exactly be impossible to find.

If more consoles are on the shelves, then more consoles will sell. Wii sells out in America always. It's really as simple as that.

Walmart did take pre-orders, and sold out. Don't know about Target but it's sold out on their website, Sears also.