By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - General - Peak oil is starting to rear its ugly head

Kyros on 19 May 2008

which are already suffering from food shortages due to food price inflation


The biggest reason for this are in (most likely this order)

1) In China, Vietnam, Brazil, India hundreds of million of people get rich and want to eat western diets with lots of meat.
2) Stupid farm subsidies of Europe which actually discourage food production
3) Biofuel demand.

Doesn't have to do anything with global warming or peak oil. Rather with the world getting a better place overall (1) and stupid politicians (2+3)

I'm pretty sure our optimism would disappear pretty quickly if those food shortages started impacting us.


As I said food is getting scarce because people get richer. For decades food production has increased faster than population growth. This doesn't help poor people who have nothing to eat ( countries with lots of urban poors, poor farmers profit from higher prices they can get for their products)

You can be sure that the food production will grow. Market economy is an amazing thing in this regard. You get more money for a product so people will increase production. 15 years ago you always heard that the EU is producing far too much food and nobody knows where to put it. 5 years ago food prices were far too low because of subsidized EU+USA dumping prices and poor third-world farmers didn't get enough money for their products. Now we have high food prices for 6 months and riots in Haiti. And suddenly the world will end.



Around the Network
NJ5 on 19 May 2008
Kyros said:
which are already suffering from food shortages due to food price inflation


The biggest reason for this are in (most likely this order)

1) In China, Vietnam, Brazil, India hundreds of million of people get rich and want to eat western diets with lots of meat.
2) Stupid farm subsidies of Europe which actually discourage food production
3) Biofuel demand.

Doesn't have to do anything with global warming or peak oil. Rather with the world getting a better place overall (1) and stupid politicians (2+3)

I'm pretty sure our optimism would disappear pretty quickly if those food shortages started impacting us.


As I said food is getting scarce because people get richer. For decades food production has increased faster than population growth. This doesn't help poor people who have nothing to eat ( countries with lots of urban poors, poor farmers profit from higher prices they can get for their products)

You can be sure that the food production will grow. Market economy is an amazing thing in this regard. You get more money for a product so people will increase production. 15 years ago you always heard that the EU is producing far too much food and nobody knows where to put it. 5 years ago food prices were far too low because of subsidized EU+USA dumping prices and poor third-world farmers didn't get enough money for their products. Now we have high food prices for 6 months and riots in Haiti. And suddenly the world will end.


Biofuels are competing with food, guess who has the most money to pay? The hungry people, or the guys driving cars?

If that isn't a good example of oil prices interfering with food, I don't know what is... A reason biofuels are being used is to limit oil usage.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Kyros on 19 May 2008

Biofuels are competing with food, guess who has the most money to pay?


On the other hand guess who is really making money? The poor farmers producing food. The hardest hit countries are Egypt, Jordan and other middle eastern countries who are very poor and are highly urbanized. I am not saying that Biofuels are a good thing and they make a problem worse but its really not that black&white as you make it out to be.

The people driving up food prices the most are not the people driving cars but the people in China, who have escaped poverty and now go to McDonalds and the poorest people in the world are generally farmers so they even profit from the situation. Again this doesn't mean that the situation shouldn't be changed but I have problems with very simple explanations like

the poor are hungry because rich people want to drive cars. Its just not as simple as that.



Kyros on 19 May 2008

A reason biofuels are being used is to limit oil usage.


but not because of high oil prices. Biofuel prices are still not lower than oil. They are used because of global warming. In the EU because they want to drop CO2 emissions by 20%. In the USA because maize farmers have a big lobby.



Final-Fan on 19 May 2008

I do not think that the market currently has the will to plan for the long term enough to adequately prepare for immense repercussions that could be avoided by a combination of vision and determination. (There are also unavoidable ones.) Mortgage crisis? Pennies compared to what's up ahead.

Sometimes the market just isn't able to serve a function needed by society.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Around the Network
Rock_on_2008 on 19 May 2008

Oil supplies will be used up before the end of this century - I predict no more oil by 2050.

Biofuels/ ethanol are even worse to the environment than fossil fuels. Growing bio- fuel would take up areas which would of been used to produce food to feed the world's population and food prices would go up even further.
Imagine the impact of increased food shortages. Catastrophic consequences would result.



Final-Fan on 19 May 2008
Rock_on_2008 said:

Oil supplies will be used up before the end of this century - I predict no more oil by 2050.

Biofuels/ ethanol are even worse to the environment than fossil fuels. Growing bio- fuel would take up areas which would of been used to produce food to feed the world's population and food prices would go up even further.
Imagine the impact of increased food shortages. Catastrophic consequences would result.

Unfortunately, that's the kind of thing that lets the naysayers discredit "peak oil" discussion.  Oil isn't going to run out like a draining bathtub going empty.  But production being reduced by 50% would easily qualify as "global crisis" and could spark World War III if enough countries get caught with their pants down.  Winners take oil, if you'll forgive the wordplay. 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Kasz216 on 20 May 2008
Kyros said:
A reason biofuels are being used is to limit oil usage.


but not because of high oil prices. Biofuel prices are still not lower than oil. They are used because of global warming. In the EU because they want to drop CO2 emissions by 20%. In the USA because maize farmers have a big lobby.

 And the eco concerns are kinda silly... as the oil used to grow and process the corn used to make the biofuel is quite substantial.  Or was the last time i looked in on it.

Biofuels are a waste.  That food could be going on the market to feed poor countries.



Kyros on 20 May 2008

Sometimes the market just isn't able to serve a function needed by society.


Yes free after Winston Churchill: The market economy is the worst of all systems except for all the other ones.
I am not sure if the market is the best system for copying with global warming (here politicians would need to integrate carbon usage into the market with a carbon tax or whatever) but the market is PERFECT for copying with problems like rising oil prices. Attempts by politicians to solve this problem will with absolute certainty make the problem worse.
I mean you see what happens at the moment. When oil gets more scarce prices rise and companies will scramble to make alternative energy sources. No need for a doomsday scenario.



NJ5 on 20 May 2008

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=747990771



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957