Well, if you allow me to be an irrational optimist for a moment:

Peak oil will lead to a complete collapse of civilization as we know it. Maybe a revolution will take place. A revolution in the way mankind perceives wealth, success and happiness.

The solutions that are required, in terms of research, infrastructure and regulation, will need to be a global endeavour. If the world manages to overcome that problem, then the goodwill which will exist between nations at that point will be a good opportunity to create a world government which could usher in a new way of thinking which would lead to solidarity between people regardless of geographic location, skin colour, sex, etc. It would be something called peace. :)

Peak oil is either an opportunity to reinvent the human experience or to accept defeat and collapse.

Dogs Rule said: Well, if you allow me to be an irrational optimist for a moment: Peak oil will lead to a complete collapse of civilization as we know it. Maybe a revolution will take place. A revolution in the way mankind perceives wealth, success and happiness. The solutions that are required, in terms of research, infrastructure and regulation, will need to be a global endeavour. If the world manages to overcome that problem, then the goodwill which will exist between nations at that point will be a good opportunity to create a world government which could usher in a new way of thinking which would lead to solidarity between people regardless of geographic location, skin colour, sex, etc. It would be something called peace. :) Peak oil is either an opportunity to reinvent the human experience or to accept defeat and collapse.

I wouldn't exactly call that optimism due to the two alternatives, but I agree (except it may get delayed to Peak Coal if humanity decides polluting even more is the way to go)!

 

Or it will be a footnote in an economic report 2025. When 15 years of high and slowly increasing oil prices have increased the amount of alternative energy. We have enough oil for many years more after all so the peak is a pretty arbitrary point in time.

Especially when you consider that we have enough coal for 200 years that can be transformed into fuel easily. So the problem is hardly that the world has not enough fossil fuels but that it has too many. (Global warming)

Kyros said: Peak oil is either an opportunity to reinvent the human experience or to accept defeat and collapse. Or it will be a footnote in an economic report 2025. When 15 years of high and slowly increasing oil prices have increased the amount of alternative energy. We have enough oil for many years more after all so the peak is a pretty arbitrary point in time. Especially when you consider that we have enough coal for 200 years that can be transformed into fuel easily. So the problem is hardly that the world has not enough fossil fuels but that it has too many. (Global warming)

Don't quote me on this, but I read that those estimates for coal wouldn't be exactly true if synthetic oil (from coal) replaced oil as the source of car fuel. I recall reading 30-40 years being what would happen in that case, along with the environmental consequences that you mentioned.

 

Well, renewable energy such as windmills IS a subtle reinvention of the human experience.

It means that small communities/villages can buy themselves a windmill and be completely free from energy blackmail from outside sources (assuming their transportation is electric), since no one can stop the flow of solar/wind energy.

(Energy blackmail is like the OPEC cutting supply to prove a political point.)

(This is all many years from now)

I doubt that I think I heard that there is much more coal lying around than oil (in energy units) But even if it is true: We have at least 30-40 years of oil (peak doesn't mean that its gone after all) Add to that another 30-40 years of coal and you are around 2100.

Seriously in 1900 mankind created the car and the airplane. If we are not independent of fossil fuels by 2100 then scientific development will have been A LOT slower than I think .

All those people who say we should think about our children should also take into account that these children will have the technology of 2050 at their disposal. This should solve quite a few problems.

Global warming is a lie so just forget about it, burn more coal, it'll be fine

Kyros said: I recall reading 30-40 years being what would happen in that case I doubt that I think I heard that there is much more coal lying around than oil (in energy units) But even if it is true: We have at least 30-40 years of oil (peak doesn't mean that its gone after all) Add to that another 30-40 years of coal and you are around 2100. Seriously in 1900 mankind created the car and the airplane. If we are not independent of fossil fuels by 2100 then scientific development will have been A LOT slower than I think . All those people who say we should think about our children should also take into account that these children will have the technology of 2050 at their disposal. This should solve quite a few problems.

OK, I clearly have to search a bit on the coal issue to get a good answer. Don't forget though, that those statements like "there's enough oil/coal for 30-40 years" assume that all of that oil/coal is both retrievable and energetically worthy to retrieve. Maybe I'll have time tonight to learn a bit more.

According to wikipedia, the coal-to-oil process would be economically viable from $35 per oil barrel, which means it's more than worth it nowadays. Yet, it's not being done, maybe because of environmental issues?

I definitely think that investment in technology could solve this problem once and for all via a transition to renewables, what I'm starting to doubt is that this technology is being given enough importance to allow for a happy transition. I hope I'm wrong though.

 

Personally I see it positive. We have had so many doomsday scenarios before.
Did Americans have Waldsterben? 1980 there were all these predictions that all trees would die by 2000. Somehow its pretty green outside. Companies added NOx filters.
Or lets take the ozone hole. Where we would all die through cancer by 2020. Now it will be closed 2050. (They removed FCKW from cooling systems)

That doesn't mean that you shouldn't do anything but the above examples show that global problems can be solved when man wants to do it. We are a pretty ingenious race. When oil gets scarce we will find ways around it. I have no doubt about it. It also helps that this is a very very slow process so business can adept to it. I have more doubts about global warming because there is not much incentive to do anything before the progress is pretty far. I mean warmer weather? Awesome.
Perhaps the oil peak and price increases are the best things that could happen to us in that regard.

Kyros said: what I'm starting to doubt is that this technology is being given enough importance to allow for a happy transition Personally I see it positive. We have had so many doomsday scenarios before. Did Americans have Waldsterben? 1980 there were all these predictions that all trees would die by 2000. Somehow its pretty green outside. Companies added NOx filters. Or lets take the ozone hole. Where we would all die through cancer by 2020. Now it will be closed 2050. (They removed FCKW from cooling systems) That doesn't mean that you shouldn't do anything but the above examples show that global problems can be solved when man wants to do it. We are a pretty ingenious race. When oil gets scarce we will find ways around it. I have no doubt about it. It also helps that this is a very very slow process so business can adept to it. I have more doubts about global warming because there is not much incentive to do anything before the progress is pretty far. I mean warmer weather? Awesome. Perhaps the oil peak and price increases are the best things that could happen to us in that regard.

You know, I suspect that we think this might be a good thing because we're not in the poorer countries which are already suffering from food shortages due to food price inflation... I'm pretty sure our optimism would disappear pretty quickly if those food shortages started impacting us. We'd probably start rioting/looting instead.

Humans are very ingenious, but I don't think we're dealing correctly with this problem.

Regarding the coal-to-oil issue, I'm reading some stuff now. There's so much material on this...