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Forums - Sales - When the Wii stops being supply constrained, we will have some answers

if u think Nintendo upping production to 2.4mil is gonna end supply shortages, then you are mistaken

when they get production over 3mil and closer to 4mil, then we can talk about MAYBE seeing wiis on shelves in stores in the US consistently


remember, the ones selling out now are bought immediately, so by those consumers who are willing to call to find when to get one, willing to get to the stores before they open, etc

once the supply catches up to satisfy all of those consumers, then the consumers that will buy one when they see one at store will pick them up and they'll sell out again...so u'll see a short time where u can find consoles on the shelves for a day or so and then it'll revert back to sold out consistently...once if finally does get to the point where wiis sit on the shelves consistently for 2 days after put on the shelf, then word will get out and everyone that wants one will go get one and they'll sell out again...etc etc...until we finally start seeing wiis on shelves in many stores constantly and then finally in all stores including walmart/target/tru/best buy/cc at all times....but that is many production increases and at least one year off (likely 2)



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
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azrm2k said:
You could start judging it in Others and Japan since it isn't supply constrained there. Infact you listed price as a factor, the 360 is cheaper in Europe and still gets outsold so you can analyze from that what you want.

Perfect response. I was going to post these exact points.


when they get production over 3mil and closer to 4mil, then we can talk about MAYBE seeing wiis on shelves in stores in the US consistently

I think this is a little over the top because the Wii is in supply in Europe/Others and Japan.  The US is the last bastion of shortages, which is a big part of the reason we've seen almost 1.5 million units sold in the US in the last two months.  As Nintendo increases production, the lion's share of that increase can come to the US now, since the Wii is in stock in most other countries (to my understanding).  Saying the Wii needs 3 million per month (about 2 million of which would be selling in the US, I imagine) to  meet demand in the US is very hardcore speculation.



u have some others countries still supply constrained
u still have new launch countries like china
u still have stockpiling for xmas
u still have ssbb launch in others

and they are still behind demand by a good margin in the US...again, u first get to 1day stock then 2day etc before u eventually get to not selling out between shipments

also, wii fit should sell several million in US to people who otherwise would not have bought a wii this year

it isnt a hardcore prediction, which u will see within 12 months when ninty ups production to 3mil and is still selling out



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp