It seems alot of people on this board accept Sony at face value when it claims the PS3 will have a 10 year life.

 From what I've seen of previous generations, the life of the console is related to only 1 thing - sales.

Take last generation for example, the gamecube was more powerful than the ps2, and by the end was cheaper ($100 au instead of $200 au). Yet its sales died off much before the ps2's did.

What makes Sony believe that the PS3 will be the exception? 

I'm curious as to when you predict the next gen consoles will be released.

My predictions

xbox 720 for Christmas 2010 or 2011, 360 sales die off rapidly

Wii 2 A year later, Wii continues to sell well due to a ludicrously low price

PS4 at same time as Wii2, PS3 sells for a bit afterwards

DS2 The same year as the 720

PSP2 The same year as the 720

Anyone care to speculate?

And a side betting pool

If either sony, nintendo or both let microsoft have more than a years head start, what do you think will happen? 

I don't see 360 or ps3 jumping in to the next generation so soon. Their consoles still cost over 300 bucks hence they can't be cheap to produce hence next generation cant be cheaper.

2011 for new Xbox seems resonable.

Wii may hit us with something in 2011 as well.

PS3 may try the 10 year cycle but by 2012 or 2013 I predict a new console.

To be honest, I don't realy care at this point as this gen is turning out great...so its ahrd to speculate what next gen may bring.

The 360 and PS3 will need a long life cycle in order to profit far past their initial investment.

This generation won't be over soon--late 2010 at the very earliest.

I'd say it's going to be an intense game of chicken for who releases first, although I think 'releases first' will be a misnomer. Sony and Microsoft now realize the value of releasing first, but they also realize the folly of releasing too early (Microsoft had RROD, PS3 came out earlier than Sony wanted and hence they couldn't cost-reduce as much). Therefore, they'll be tensely waiting to announce their next systems until they see what their opponent is offering and when, and get it out around the same time.

Then, Nintendo will sucker-punch them and release three months earlier with the super-system they're developing in secret right now