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Forums - Gaming - "Expert" Predictions They Wish You Would Forget

SeriousWB on 09 May 2008
Grampy said:

Here are a couple howlers for the DS. You'll note that one is by one of the biggest names in the industry.

___________ BAD ANALYSIS THEATER for th DS_______

 

“I can’t understand why two screens are required rather than a split screen.” He went on to say, “Everyone will produce at least one game on the DS in order to learn the mechanics, but if it launches with 12 games, it will look a lot like the N-Gage.” (The DS would launch with six.) "I think that PSP will be a category killer with older gamers.
-Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan

 

 

 “Some industry insiders were less kind, comparing the DS to Nintendo's greatest hardware debacle, the Virtual Boy. "The DS sounds very gimmicky to me," a source at a major publisher told GameSpot. "It's like a 'Crazy Ivan' response to the PSP.”
 -Gamespot News covering the unveiling of the DS

These guys' faces must have left indents on their palms by now.



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BrainBoxLtd on 09 May 2008
imarc said:

 
Onyxmeth said:
What's funny isn't even that they completely botched the PS3 and Wii numbers. It's that almost none of them correctly predicted the growth the industry has seen this generation. Most of the combined console sales are rediculously low to their current numbers. That just shows a lack of common sense and inability to do their job correct, because the industry has been growing steadily year in and year ou

 

Well, if you can't predict that the Wii will be super successful, drawing in non-gamers and bringing back casual gamers, how would you be able to see those people as a major reason that the market is growing?


 Maybe no one (except John Lucas) could predict the Wii would be "super" successful, but a lot of these predictions just seem absurd. On Nov. of 06 one group predicted 121 million for the PS3. They honestly couldn't factor that such a big price tag, losing exclusives to the 360, and what seemed to me a disturbing lack of new ideas for such an expensive system wouldn't translate to smaller overall sales than it's predecessor? Not to mention reduced backwards compatibility when compared to the PS2, and not having the edge of launching earlier than the competition like the last two Playstations had. They honestly predicted it hit a 120 million units sold in six years.

Yet they predict the Wii will do only slightly better than the cube 24 million. The Cube's biggest problem, as much as I enjoyed it, is it really didn't bring anything new and exciting to the table. It was effectively a much more powerful N64 with then more standard controllers and finally making the switch to disc media. The Wii being in such stark contrast to HD consoles assured a lock on certain neglected parts of the gaming market. It's current success with the DS demonstrated how effective market disruption can be. It's price point also made for a bigger advantage this round due to the greater prices of the competition as well as multiple SKU's that confuse or dissuade potential buyers.

A lot of these people weren't even thinking when they came up with this crap. 



saibotex on 09 May 2008

Well the main problem with these analysts is that they look and use previous sales records of the consoles. By using the past numbers they try to make "intelligent assumptions" as to what numbers to forecast. By following the trend of the two previous generations they come up with these numbers.

Only the thing is the Wii isnt your standard console it went totally against the flow thus trully disrupting the industry trends. Thus totally goofy looking assumptions by analysts.

Gotta admire Nintendo for having the balls to go through with their project even though they see these analysis'



Grampy on 09 May 2008
totalwar23 said:
Pssh, we all know the huge Wii sales can't last. Sure the sales show no signs of stopping and sure it might even be increasing but it's so obvious that at some point in time, the sales rate will have a magical drop off. The slope of the drop will be so steep that it will be it becomes a mathematical impossibility and will be represent as a discontinuity across the graph line. We just have to keep on waiting for this point in time. It's coming. When? I don't know, but it's coming and all of these predictions will be ultimately be proven correct. That's my analysis.

 

There we go again. I can't tell if this is written as satire, or you are certifiably delusional. If serious there are a few problems with your analysis.First no one has identified anything that will abruptly reverse the Wii’s upward trend. GTA IV was supposed to but instead drove it to all time highs. The market saturation argument that suddenly demand will collapse is untenable. You see, the sign of collapsing demand is units sitting on the shelf, NOT people lined up in the parking lot waiting for the store to open.

Sales of anything don’t just suddenly and magically plummet, people are just not that organized.

And lastly, you are aware of the impossibility of sales predictions coming true if the predicted sales for 2012 have already been doubled in 2008. Even theoretically, the only possible scenario would be a massive buyback program by Nintendo. Yeah, that'll happen!  

 



BrainBoxLtd on 09 May 2008
Grampy said:
totalwar23 said:
Pssh, we all know the huge Wii sales can't last. Sure the sales show no signs of stopping and sure it might even be increasing but it's so obvious that at some point in time, the sales rate will have a magical drop off. The slope of the drop will be so steep that it will be it becomes a mathematical impossibility and will be represent as a discontinuity across the graph line. We just have to keep on waiting for this point in time. It's coming. When? I don't know, but it's coming and all of these predictions will be ultimately be proven correct. That's my analysis.

 

There we go again. I can't tell if this is written as satire, or you are certifiably delusional. If serious there are a few problems with your analysis.First no one has identified anything that will abruptly reverse the Wii’s upward trend. GTA IV was supposed to but instead drove it to all time highs. The market saturation argument that suddenly demand will collapse is untenable. You see, the sign of collapsing demand is units sitting on the shelf, NOT people lined up in the parking lot waiting for the store to open.

Sales of anything don’t just suddenly and magically plummet, people are just not that organized.

And lastly, you are aware of the impossibility of sales predictions coming true if the predicted sales for 2012 have already been doubled in 2008. Even theoretically, the only possible scenario would be a massive buyback program by Nintendo. Yeah, that'll happen!  

 Knowing totalwar he's just being funny. It'll probably take a while for you sort who is being sarcastic and when, especially with people like Crazzyman who make and seem to stand-by similar insane predictions. There's so many elaborate and far-fetched "The Wii is Doomed" predictions out there it's easy to joke about it and have it taken seriously.

 



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Parokki on 09 May 2008
Grampy said:
totalwar23 said:
Pssh, we all know the huge Wii sales can't last. Sure the sales show no signs of stopping and sure it might even be increasing but it's so obvious that at some point in time, the sales rate will have a magical drop off. The slope of the drop will be so steep that it will be it becomes a mathematical impossibility and will be represent as a discontinuity across the graph line. We just have to keep on waiting for this point in time. It's coming. When? I don't know, but it's coming and all of these predictions will be ultimately be proven correct. That's my analysis.

 

There we go again. I can't tell if this is written as satire, or you are certifiably delusional. If serious there are a few problems with your analysis.First no one has identified anything that will abruptly reverse the Wii’s upward trend. GTA IV was supposed to but instead drove it to all time highs. The market saturation argument that suddenly demand will collapse is untenable. You see, the sign of collapsing demand is units sitting on the shelf, NOT people lined up in the parking lot waiting for the store to open.

Sales of anything don’t just suddenly and magically plummet, people are just not that organized.

And lastly, you are aware of the impossibility of sales predictions coming true if the predicted sales for 2012 have already been doubled in 2008. Even theoretically, the only possible scenario would be a massive buyback program by Nintendo. Yeah, that'll happen.

Welcome to VG Chartz. You might want to spend a few more days getting to know people before guessing if they're serious or not with the outrageous things they say. =P

A good way to know is a person's game collection and signature. If there are only PS3 games in both, then they might seriously think their console is suddenly going to turn things around, but more variety usually means more perspective. I suppose you could do it the other way too, but predictions of the Wii's victory tend to be less unrealistic for obvious reasons.



Grampy on 09 May 2008

Sorry, I'll try to learn to distinguish between insanely funny and merely insane.

Next batch

__________ More Off-Target Expertise __________

 Daiwa Institute of Research senior analystsDefibaugh and Maeda both think the PlayStation 3 will have half of the market in the worldwide next-generation console war by the end of 2006, followed by the Xbox 360 at 30 percent, and the Revolution at 20 percent.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6143288.html

Wii will sell 11 Million by 2011

Boston-based research firm Yankee Group predicts that the PS3 will capture 44 percent of cumulative console sales in North America by 2011, with 30 million units sold. Microsoft is expected to sell nearly 27 million units, taking up 40 percent of the market, while the Wii is forecasted to sell a little over 11 million units, accounting for just 16 percent of the market.

.http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3643&Itemid=2

 

"Nintendo's Revolution will be its last console; it's a two-horse race right now." Michael Wallace
http://kotaku.com/gaming/console-wars/analyst-revolution-nintendos-last-console-138532.php

 

 "Nintendo has not had a successful machine for the last 10 years, so for us analysts it is quite difficult to imagine a scenario where Nintendo is actually going to win. But for me right now, especially in Japan at least, Nintendo does seem to have the upper hand." Hiroshi Kamide, director of the research department at KBC Securities

________________________________________________________

This last guy is not only off on his prediction but his history. 'Not a succesful machine for the last 10 years" means he has never heard the the GBA or the DS

 

 


Baddman on 09 May 2008

wtf, Where was I when these predictions were being made. Those are totally ridiculous expecting the ps3 to sell that many with its insane price tag. I could understand lowballin the wii but not the way they did. And the thing about the ds going to be a failure wow talk about retarded analysts.



patjuan32 on 09 May 2008

No Analyst believed in the Wii at all. Sad.



If Nintendo is successful at the moment, it’s because they are good, and I cannot blame them for that. What we should do is try to be just as good.----Laurent Benadiba

 

dib8rman on 09 May 2008

It's all about the negative sales, ps3domination starts 2009 anyway once blu-ray sets in and the cell gets added to everything...

Not even the PS3 fanatics I know believe that, most are too busy enjoying GTAIV XD.

You have to wonder if those guys are Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo PR.

Then again even Nintendo's quaterly reports are boring =( Like all they do is say, wii sells the most... again and broke some record.. again.

Sony used to be fab but now Microsoft is where I get my fix.

The stories Microsoft comes up with is like, drool while laughing while face palm worthy.

Their job must be exciting... I think Nintendo could get trained monkeys to do their PR job these days.



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